Given how poor nam looked days out with current storm with its far nw sfc low track and taking the 500mb low very far west I wouldn't trust it. Seems like nam is usually late to the party to catching on to other models. Also not sure it has resolved current system's snow pack.
Nam doing nam things. I get this thing could pull up a big slug of warm air with it but where nam has the low placement I just don't buy rain this north that long or maybe even period. Thermals seem wonky on it. It is doing strange things with the 500mb low.
Well ICON, Ukmet, GDPS, and somewhat nam/euro all look good for this. GFS did pretty well with this current system. Is it going to be right and be a miss se for us?
Yeah all valid points man. I haven't dove deep into this setup because I figured models will be flip flopping till this first system moves out. I was guessing the issue was aloft but still surprised the isotherm gets above 0C this north with where the low tracks. But it is a powerful system and models often underestimate WAA. I definitely think the snowpack could set up a nice baroclinic zone for the next system to follow. I anticipate it will track further south than this ongoing storm.
Kinda surprised models like NAM and Euro are showing precip type issues so north with this. Thinking after models resolve this current system and its snow pack it may resolve those issues better.
Euro odd though with thermals. With as south as it tracks, it has rain for quite a bit before changeover here. Bit skeptical of this based on colder air available for this system.
No model handling this dryslot well right now I feel. It has really punched north and east. Models I feel never get a good handle on this. Looked like it was going to snow well into the night before but now looks to be ending early
That dryslot is really punching north in MO. Curious how this will impact the event. Most cams fill back in the dryslot as the sfc low lifts closer and upper dynamics approach area.
Though I am liking trends on hrrr I am a bit confused on its se trend given the low is 991mb now and it initialized it around 996mb. To me I would think it would end up more nw if it's stronger than it's depicting.
DVN being very aggressive with their snow forecast. Higher than most guidance. Also a very strongly worded afd. Meanwhile ILX sounds awful. Lol. Talking about mixing issues here tonight which I totally disagree with. That will be issue tomorrow.