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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    If you're south of Philly don't look at the 0z runs...pretty ugly. The turnpike and 10-20 miles in either direction are hanging on but it's borderline there. Lehigh Valley and Poconos still look to be in a good spot.
  2. LVblizzard
    The long range NAM will either show the most weenie outcome possible or something that’s ridiculously different from all the other models. Never fails.
  3. LVblizzard
    Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it.
  4. LVblizzard
    Don’t look now but the Canadian has gotten much colder for Tuesday. Significant event north of I-78.
  5. LVblizzard
    Euro is weenie paradise for the I-78 corridor!
  6. LVblizzard
    Very good 0z suite for the entire subforum. Except maybe the Jersey shore. GFS seems lost and even if it verifies it’s still not bad.
  7. LVblizzard
    Wildly different evolution than any other run. Basically says F the primary low and kills it long before it gets to our latitude. Love the final product but I’m not sure I buy it.
  8. LVblizzard
    Not a good trend for Philly and the immediate suburbs. Lehigh Valley on north still looks decent.
  9. LVblizzard
    Oh man…tonight’s Euro is beautiful!
  10. LVblizzard
    Mix line gets up to Scranton. Not ideal. Really hope the Euro holds tonight.
  11. LVblizzard
    GFS/ICON still like the Philly area. CMC looks lost with a wildly strung out low that still brings a mix to the Poconos…makes no sense. UKMET and Euro next!
  12. LVblizzard
    Classic NW of I-95 storm on the Euro.
  13. LVblizzard
    12z models are all over the place so far. CMC and UKMET rain on Philly, ICON is a big snowstorm, while the GFS nearly misses completely.
  14. LVblizzard
    Remarkable agreement between the GFS/CMC/Euro ensembles. They all have a major snowstorm on Saturday into Sunday.
  15. LVblizzard
    Euro joins the party with a really nice snowstorm for most of us!
  16. LVblizzard
    January 2016 did this exact thing. Models were remarkably consistent over a week away. Run after run was a massive snowstorm. Then about 3-4 days out, some of them shifted south. I recall the Euro even missing Philly for one of its runs. It took until the day before the storm for all the models to come around again.
  17. LVblizzard
    GFS/CMC and its ensembles are all in for next weekend. UKMET is a big hit too. Let’s see if the Euro follows…
  18. LVblizzard
    I doubt it. It’s been drizzling in Allentown tonight. If it’s not snowing here it won’t snow in the Philly burbs.
  19. LVblizzard
    GFS joins the Euro. Looks decent for the Lehigh Valley northward but if you’re south of the turnpike it’s more rain than snow.
  20. LVblizzard
    Next weekend’s storm threat looks pretty good. I’m much more concerned about suppression than rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see lots more flip-flopping on the models. Hopefully it works out and gives all of us a decent snowstorm. The mid-week threat isn’t very promising. I think some areas could get an inch or so from the northern stream disturbance but a bigger coastal storm seems pretty unlikely. New England is still in the game, although not by much.
  21. LVblizzard
    Woke up with a dusting of snow on the grass. It’s almost gone already. I still haven’t seen a single flake of snow actually falling this winter as I was in Europe during the first week in December and I woke up too late to see it the other two times.
  22. LVblizzard
    The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps.
  23. LVblizzard
    And now no snow chances for at least the next two weeks! Yippeeeeee! It’s like last winter never even ended.
  24. LVblizzard
    You still think we’re getting 1-3”? I doubt we see anything more than an inch, and even that’s being a little generous.
  25. LVblizzard
    Really wish that GFS would verify but I don’t trust it at all in setups like this. I’ll be watching the NAMs and HRRR much more closely today.
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