EF4’s? What in the world, maybe if we doubled the instability and SRH at the lower levels I could agree with you. That EML should help out a good bit for this area, wouldn’t be shocked to see even hurricane force wind reports this evening around sunset
I guess they forgot you need decent amounts of moisture to bring part of the cloud to the ground
Its wild. Social media here is all a buzz over it, the radar didn’t make much sense when that line rolled through. I guess it was picking up soil not actual rain in those returns. Looks like it is half way to Cleveland by now
You can see that Louisiana cell riding some serious humidity. With clear skies and humidity starting to surge, it’s absolutely getting primed over Alabama. I do think potential “crowding” could limit things a bit but we’ll see how it evolves
It follows that same current tornado warned storm as well. Btw on a local side note, you feel that 11° temperature jump here? KDUH was showing the lake breeze over Toledo was overpowered, went from 63 to 74 in 20 minutes
Quite possibly the most ominous Day 2 outlook I've ever read.
The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective
outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL
and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored
corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely
develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing
large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle.
A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will
support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes.
Storm motions alone will yield long tracks at those interstate speeds. From a wind damage perspective tomorrow should be ridiculous, with those hurricane force winds being only a few thousand feet up we’ll see tons of truly severe gusts. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a high risk go up if discrete storms fire in an area
I would argue this was the worst tornado in American history. A mile wide EF5 surging thru the heart of a 50,000 person city? 158 lives lost with modern forecasting technology and the communications system we have today is insane. I cannot imagine if this were to have happened in the 1940s what it would have done.
That stretch is what causes so much of the bellyaching we see on here. Since 2005 Toledo, OH has seen the #1, 3 & 5th snowiest Januaries and the #1, 2, 4, 5, 6 & 9th snowiest Februaries on record. If you like snow, you’ve had an all time run
Bingo. It didn’t help that not only was there that powerhouse line through the south, but strong convection along the Ohio River holding down moisture on the back end of this system quite a bit