USCAPEWEATHERAF

Somewhere in the pattern fluctuations, there is the potential for a snowstorm for Mid Atlantic and the Northeast come next week, after Monday or maybe on Monday the 25th, Christmas day onward as an arctic air mass invades from the central us towards the East Coast. Teleconnections support a three day period for a snowstorm on the coast from about the 24th to 27th that week. The pattern evolves to support a +PNA/-NAO and -AO all line up for a coastal storm, it could be a big QPF producer and maybe not much of a wind producer, but we will deal with that when the time comes. Just know the period exists for a potential storm.

My two opening works as a new coming writer, novelist, I am rewriting the first novel I wrote six months ago. I could use some expertise from meteorologists

So everyone put in the comment section how you fell in love with snow, rain, wind, hurricanes, blizzards and all the above when it comes to the weather?

Upper level jet stream dynamics as seen on water vapor imagery suggests Cape Cod could see up to 6" of snow by 1am tomorrow morning.

Yes more snow is on the way, and the latest models at 00z update are coming in with better results for our small but powerful coastal storm taking shape tomorrow off the Va Beach coastline and heading NEward, depends upon how far northwest this system comes in the short range will determine how much snow we get in the end

My next weather update will come tomorrow morning after I see the 6z model cycle for my first snow fall map for tomorrow night's event

Southern New England clipper brings 3-6" potentially or more across the South Coast of SNE.

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing. We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US. Snow will be falling across central MI tomorrow morning and then will quickly move towards western PA and Pittsburgh area by the evening and then redevelop off the NJ coastline by Thursday early morning hours, and then be around the benchmark 40/70 location by midday Thursday. Depending upon the jet dynamics and the oceanic influence of the surface cyclogenesis process we could see a rapidly developing system bring snow to the south coast of New England by 6z Thursday morning and lasting for nine to twelve hours. If enough lift can develop we could see a good to decent snow amount and especially if we can get NE to NNE winds going than moisture will be a little problem. Therefore I am predicting a could 2" on the Cape while the Islands can receive 3" of snow the most snow will occur across central WI to central MI and then islands of MA. Still a lot of nowcasting to go and things could change drastically if that vorticity maximum is stronger on the models/

GFS/NAM/EURO all point to a short duration about 6-10 hour window for heavy snow on Monday, this is the threat map I designed showing where the heaviest snows will likely be. Again initial map.

This map explains my forecast for New England simply.

There are two camps for the scenarios on the midweek storm potential for December 12-14th 2017. I will illustrate them below. Scenario One is a full blown Blizzard from NYC to BOS to Bangor, ME. Scenario Two favors the Great Lakes and NNE with the heaviest snows. Which one happens will be determined by jet dynamics, phase potential, and baroclinic zone potential placement as well as track of clipper and arctic shortwave troughs in the flow. Scenarios are not forecasts, they are there to show potential either way. I will be updating the blog with my newest snow fall map for this weekend's storm shortly.

I have a narrow swath of accumulating snow of about 4-6" from western CT and MA to Downeast ME where I think the best cold air source and moisture combination remains as models have come in extremely amplified over the last 12 hours. Remember this is not the final map, I will issue that Friday evening

00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC. This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC. This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004

6z GFS produces over a foot of snow for my location in the next week, it combines the first storm on December 9th and something after it on December 11th, still 72 hours before the first flakes or drops

While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus. WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently. First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters. Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state. This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to occur south of Southern New England and east of NJ. Models including the 12z GFS and 12z EURO have caught their eyes on the second shortwave in the bunch and want to amplify the flow to favor this nor'easter. The current amounts in the model fields are 3-6" and 8"+ for the coastline of Massachusetts. However, I think this may be a case of overachiever central, a massive amount of snow is possible. I will have more after the 18z GFS

Tonight's 18z GFS run showed a colder scenario for DEC 9th clipper/coastal low. Alert level one, possibility!

These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved. Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME. Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month? Absolutely, but how accurate is the model? Horribly inconsistent, but when it smells out a storm potential this is the time range it does it in. For the last two consecutive model runs for the GFS it has shown two monster storms back to back mid month of December, this first one is a triple point low, the second is a consolidated low, but we have potential for snow next week, so I won't get carried away with this shortwave, as the first shortwave with this new pattern can slam New England hard with heavy snow. So I will focus next few blogs on the short term.

This is the 500mb imagery from the 12z GFS, from hours 300 to 384, these eight images suggest a powerful nor'easter takes about 150 mile path east of Boston, MA as a 968mb low, an offshore storm favoring the coastal regions of New England around December 16th 2017, about 15 days from now.