USCAPEWEATHERAF

Cape Cod has not had a real snowstorm on Thanksgiving since my birth year, 28 years ago on Thanksgiving. I was supposed to be baptized in the Roman Catholic Church a few months after my birth, which happened to be Thanksgiving week. However, we had a great snowstorm that dumped almost a foot and a half of snow. My parents have pictures they showed us growing up. I have always wanted a white Thanksgiving and Christmas in the same year, wouldn't that be fascinating if this was the year? Trouble though, my family and I are celebrating the holiday in Hilton Head, SC, so there is a dilemma here. A part of me wants a white Thanksgiving and celebrate it at home with my immediate family and experience a snowstorm, the other part of me wants the snow to hold off until Sunday after the holiday when we are home to enjoy it. Oh well. GFS has a holiday storm shaping up on the November 14th 00z run around Wednesday of next week. IF this indeed is the case, my family isn't going to SC for the holiday. Model agreement would be good within 10 days, but the pattern shaping up continues the cold and stormy outlook into the first few weeks of December, and I like my chances for snow on the coast in December, not November, although it is rare, it isn't unlikely. Teleconnections support a stormy and cold end for November and beginning of December. We will get our front loaded chances this winter for snow. However, I think it will take until January to get the true blizzard type of weather patterns, but I could be wrong stay tuned!

Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies. Tomorrow I am working on character names and design. Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies. So be the first one to reply. James Warren Nichols Productions

Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.

Remembering a blizzard that I believed to be epic was not so long ago where I can't remember any details. This one was two about to be three winters ago. The winter of 2014-2015 was boring and dull as well as rarely cold to start, the first month of that winter was warm and boring. Christmas Day was warm, it was raining and in the 50s, cleared by the afternoon. Cape Cod winters are not promised a thing snowfall wise. However, since the winter of 2002-2003 winters have been kinder to the snow lover living on the Cape Cod peninsula. Since then I have witnessed numerous 18"+ snowstorms, and even before that winter, but not the frequency we have since that winter. Our two best winters for snow loving people were in 2004-2005 and ten years later 2014-2015, both winters we received 98" in 04-05 and 72" 14-15. In both of those winters we received two comparable blizzards, in the 04-05 winter we received an 18" snowstorm the day after Christmas and in 14-15 we received a 15" snowstorm two weeks into the month of February. So onto witnessing the blizzard. I now had a blizzard to compare this current behemoth too. Back in 04-05 we never experienced more than 2 feet of snow from any one storm. However, the Jan 05 Blizzard brought almost three feet of snow, we missed three feet by one inch. Numerous locations along the Eastern MA coastline received more than 35", Sandwich received 35", Falmouth got 38" and Salem, MA got 38". The blizzard three winters ago brought a grand total of 32" to Harwich, MA, my front yard. What was so fascinating with the Blizzard Juno was that it kept coming with the heavy snow bands across the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The rain/snow forecasted to come as close to Hyannis as possible Tuesday afternoon cutting our snow total in half. However, that night Tuesday early morning hours, I woke up and the NWS point click forecast brought the afternoon high temperatures down from mid 30s to 32F, that day, the temperature didn't break 31F. Why did the forecasts break so badly for the pros? Because simply they overestimated the EURO model's temperatures. If they went with conventional wisdom, they would have seen that the EURO was overamplified and too far west with the low track, I saw the low tracking eastward of the benchmark, not west. SO I went for the overhaul in the forecast snow totals, I told Cape Cod residents to look out, we are getting 30"+ from this storm. It felt like the Blizzard of 05, the local tv mets brought our totals down in both epic storms. Following the storm on this forum was nothing but a bunch full of awesomeness. Great radar recognitions by our mets, and Will (Orh_wxman), and Scott N. (Coastalwx) they did a fabulous job updating the weenies including myself on the latest radar trends for Juno. Mike Seidel on the TWC and his amazing footage caught on camera in Plymouth, MA wow. And RIP Clinchwood, miss you man. He brought an certain attitude towards his observations that you could just resonate towards. Man what an epic storm. That forum keeps me going during the non snow months. From the early its going east to the no its coming posts to the oh man 12" is nothing to the 30"+ amounts over Worcester MA. To Scott's (CoastalWx) posts about "Its not gonna happen James", that put the icing on the cake. Thanks guys for a wonderful time, let's do it again this winter.

Yes sir they are

Winter Storm Juno photos and videos from Mike Siedel from the Weather Channel is amazing to continue to watch over and over again. Juno was the second most amazing snowstorm to strike Harwich, MA, 32" of snow, second behind the Great North American Blizzard of 2005, 35"

Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss. Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame. Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons. Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region. First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners. Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why? 500mb patterns! At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region. Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th. Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.

First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS. Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR. This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive NAO, but you never know how these blocks of the atmosphere will behave. We could have our first widespread snowstorm either NOV 9-11 or NOV 14-16th of this upcoming two week period as the PV (polar vortex) enters our side of the hemisphere and tries to get involved in our air masses from Canada and the Arctic Circle. We are entering the season for explosive nor'easters in the North Atlantic/Arctic region which lends us to believe that cold air is indeed present on our side of the hemisphere, now this upcoming week from Thursday Nov 2nd to Nov 9th will be a step down period from modestly warm weather tomorrow through the weekend to appreciably colder and perhaps an arctic chill to the air will be felt next weekend, this should set the stage for our first rain/snow storm. Stay tuned!

GFS if right shows snow occurring over the coastal waters of Cape Cod on November 16th. Could this be the mark of the first snow of the season? Stay tuned, next two weeks will determine whats real and what is not.

"Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology. Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquakes erupt along the fault lines of the Earth. This novel will be such an experience, that this author has never written before in his lifetime, it will be a journey through the characters that has never happened before in our lifetimes. This story will bring heartache, suspicion, suspense, heroic behavior and the ultimate giving of sacrificing one's life for the better good, for the ultimate good, in saving a person's life, putting a person's life ahead of their own safety. The ultimate sacrifice. Our hero Jack and heroine Abi, take us on an adventure, one only dreams of in the end, and today that journey begins. I cannot wait to give you this novel, because I want to surprise the world with my talents as a tremendous author with the talents of a great writer. This novel will prove that to the reader. You will want to continue to read my novels as they will be better and better, filled with tremendous action. Good luck, this might take me a full year to work on from now until Thanksgiving 2018. I will cherish this journey, because I want it to be the best out there ever.

Will is right, the January 05 Blizzard was a "Blizzard" in its truest nature. Even on Cape Cod we had winds gusting between 75-85mph, on Nantucket the winds gusted to 86mph and the island lost power, its quite possible that Nantucket experienced Category two hurricane force wind gusts over 95mph as they couldn't confirm with their power out. The blizzard was the worst wind/snow combination I have ever experienced. The fun thing is I remember making and drooling on snow maps I made during high school classes and showed my friends what was coming for that weekend. The awesome thing is, I was right for once, and accuweather was right in hyping the storm. Man that was a fun winter, 98" of snow.

This winter could be a lot like the 2011-2012 winter, stay tuned for further updates.

Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.

SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.

Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.

Hey everyone of Americanwx.com foruims, Today I inform you that my novel, 'The Dawn Awakening: Opening Segment" is being reviewed by a publishing company for potential publishing, keep me in your prayers, as we can get through the barrier of publishing. Thanks, I will have another updated blog on Thursday when they make the decision. Thanks! James Warren Nichols

thanks

Man Blizzard of 2005 beats all with cold air and snow.

I will no doubt

awesome, I no doubt pay attention to your forum, we guys know the most on your region so I come to your forum to watch the comments on the latest snow events

The videos of the Blizzard of 2015 Coverage is awesome. I hate how Harvey and Mike didn't update the snow fall graphic every time news came in of the Outer Cape getting over 24", Harwich came in at 30.4" officially, but you know how banding is, I measured 32" in my front yard. I live in Harwich Center, there has to be a residual front between Harwich and Chatham.