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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Looking at water vapor imagery I would say we are going to have a large storm system impacting us tomorrow. Right now the primary low inland is still hanging strong. 1014mb low. A large outbreak of high cloud tops seems like a line of storms is developing along the cold front as mid level vort max is rotating. That is a sign of a strengthening mid level low.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I think confidence is increasing in Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA receiving a foot plus.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Wow, you are more enthusiastic then I am, 10 feet of snow is a lot to ask for
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The models agree the phase is too late for most of New England, but it happens in time for Hazey and Nova Scotia, Canada, where they get buried over 2' of snow.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Will is the track good for Cape Cod?
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The GULF disturbance is strong, heavy lightning along the warm front over SC.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The HRRR is slowing the onset of the storm down further and further each hour run.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Why would I give up on this storm if the EURO goes east, that would mean more snow for me
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is quite the intense situation for the pro mets on tv and working otherwise. We have a huge bust potential between 1-3" and as much as 6-12" potentially. Huge difference.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    ULJ is curling into the storm system.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Will, what did you take from the 24-30 hour period of the mid-level vort maxes? Did it show you may be a faster phase between them? It looked like the GFS wanted to phase the GULF storm and the GRT Lakes shortwave a little faster closer to the New England coastline. Am I seeing things now, or did that really show that?
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Thanks Ray. Look I agree, it is not credible being excited for every modeled snow threat. And I will try to focus on the whole region and not just IMBY anymore. It is hard to do.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I am sorry, I was thinking about my area. But everyone is right, the storm tracked further southeast this run. I will tone my enthusiasm down. Jerry you of all people should know the excitement that comes with storms. Gosh. I wonder sometimes.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Ok I see the difference in the runs from 6z to 12z. Its a slight difference, but QPF is not as intense in a 3 hour period, but it is more moderate and more widespread at 12z.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way. Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle? Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z GFS closes off at 850mb
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Come on Ray, the water temps have cooled off significantly to my northeast and north, that is where the wind is coming from with this storm.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It doesn';t make sense the warmth in the lower levels would come that close to the Cape, we have northeasterly to northerly winds as the storm tracks southeast of ACK and the benchmark.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The warmth in the low-levels comes from where? Northeasterly winds don't scream marine influence this time of the year. Storm track is far enough southeast of ACK the wind direction is northeast to north.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Then we shouldn't use any model correct?
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located. We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved. This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    RGEM is all snow for Cape Cod even ACK. Provincetown seems to be the place to be in SNE this storm. 12-20"
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    ICON continues to show the region that gets the jackpot, SE MA.
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