USCAPEWEATHERAF

About a -1.0mb/hour in the last hour over Cape Hatteras, NC. Lightning off the NC coastline, maybe push the surface low further northwest.

Low level precipitation bands developing south of ACK and MVY.

Thanks TIP, I explained why I went bullish

Here is my latest snow map:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

I think it is stupid to have both storms snowfall maps combined. This storm alone could produce a foot or more across eastern/southeastern MA.

Oh I am not saying it is strong or anything just yet, it is just a reflection. The primary low is 1013mb and intensifying with intense lift developing ahead of it. That is the main show for the next 6 hours.

Is it colder?

Perhaps a surface low is developing near the convection just east of HSE.

I would say it is gulf stream enhanced convection. Probably due to strong wind shear as surface winds out of the southeast and upper level winds out of the southwest.

The good news so far with the nowcast, is that water vapor imagery continues to show us what we need to see with the stronger lift and thunderstorm development is associated with the mid-level shortwave.

The primary is blowing up convection right now, where the best mid to upper level dynamics are present.

WE have lightning initiation and development of thunderstorms off of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Looking at water vapor imagery I would say we are going to have a large storm system impacting us tomorrow. Right now the primary low inland is still hanging strong. 1014mb low. A large outbreak of high cloud tops seems like a line of storms is developing along the cold front as mid level vort max is rotating. That is a sign of a strengthening mid level low.

I think confidence is increasing in Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA receiving a foot plus.

Wow, you are more enthusiastic then I am, 10 feet of snow is a lot to ask for

The models agree the phase is too late for most of New England, but it happens in time for Hazey and Nova Scotia, Canada, where they get buried over 2' of snow.

Will is the track good for Cape Cod?

The GULF disturbance is strong, heavy lightning along the warm front over SC.

The HRRR is slowing the onset of the storm down further and further each hour run.

Why would I give up on this storm if the EURO goes east, that would mean more snow for me

It is quite the intense situation for the pro mets on tv and working otherwise. We have a huge bust potential between 1-3" and as much as 6-12" potentially. Huge difference.

ULJ is curling into the storm system.

Will, what did you take from the 24-30 hour period of the mid-level vort maxes? Did it show you may be a faster phase between them? It looked like the GFS wanted to phase the GULF storm and the GRT Lakes shortwave a little faster closer to the New England coastline. Am I seeing things now, or did that really show that?

Thanks Ray. Look I agree, it is not credible being excited for every modeled snow threat. And I will try to focus on the whole region and not just IMBY anymore. It is hard to do.