USCAPEWEATHERAF

I'm heading to bed, waking up in a few hours to check on the storm's progress. Hopefully, the GFS is right with this storm.

I wouldn't worry about that unless the 00z GFS comes in agreement.

Yes but the greatest pressure fall couplet, is over Norfolk, and SE Virginia.

Be patient, the main development is just getting underway, between 3-6z is when the low really starts to take off right off the Delmarva.

Greatest pressure falls as of this hour are over Norfolk and the SE Virginia region, not over Cape Hatteras, NC, that means the low may be developing further northward.

I would say around 3-6z tongiht is when the crucial part of the surface low development and track come into play as the convection matures off the coast, that is when the models pivot the low more northward then eastward. Patience everyone, soon the satellite will look like its supposed to with the low moving up the coast.

There is good news on satellite imagery, the line of thunderstorms east of NC are actually developing much closer to the coast of Cape Hatteras.

Scott if it helps any, the precipitation in bands is moving NNEward

Yeah I can barely stay awake right now, I need to be awake for when the snow starts up tonight. Bands already moving past ACK, but ACK is not reporting any precipitation, not sure what the official observations say, Brian can you check that out when you get a chance.

No the EURO and GFS have been quite steadfast, unless you are talking about heavy snow potential areas west of I95 corridor. I think Hartford, CT is in trouble and less confidence.

I agree. They were a step in the right direction and so was the 2z HRRR model run, they are slowing down the progress of the storm.

Low-level bands developing out ahead of the main storm, down in NC.

About a -1.0mb/hour in the last hour over Cape Hatteras, NC. Lightning off the NC coastline, maybe push the surface low further northwest.

Low level precipitation bands developing south of ACK and MVY.

Thanks TIP, I explained why I went bullish

Here is my latest snow map:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

I think it is stupid to have both storms snowfall maps combined. This storm alone could produce a foot or more across eastern/southeastern MA.

Oh I am not saying it is strong or anything just yet, it is just a reflection. The primary low is 1013mb and intensifying with intense lift developing ahead of it. That is the main show for the next 6 hours.

Is it colder?

Perhaps a surface low is developing near the convection just east of HSE.

I would say it is gulf stream enhanced convection. Probably due to strong wind shear as surface winds out of the southeast and upper level winds out of the southwest.

The good news so far with the nowcast, is that water vapor imagery continues to show us what we need to see with the stronger lift and thunderstorm development is associated with the mid-level shortwave.

The primary is blowing up convection right now, where the best mid to upper level dynamics are present.

WE have lightning initiation and development of thunderstorms off of Cape Hatteras, NC.