USCAPEWEATHERAF

Parameters are in place for an outbreak of snow showers and snow squalls on Cape Cod, early Thanksgiving through Friday afternoon of this upcoming holiday week. GFS forecasts -20C 850mb temps, coupled with +10C of ocean water temperatures equals a very unstable atmospheric profile, I will have to watch this potential closely as it is still about five days away. But the potential exists at least for festive flurries on Thanksgiving day. Stay tuned!

I busted on the warm side of things with this storm, the storm came in colder and stronger with the omega and theta E airmass. I should have known this was an overperformer.

Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95. Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time. And NAM is just getting into the frame of time. Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough to turn the rain to snow for me on Cape Cod on Tuesday as a very cold airmass follows this system into the region, highs on Thanksgiving could lead to Ocean Effect Snows, but we all know how fickle that can be on the models. Stay tuned! Snow map tomorrow afternoon.

This is the current thinking I wanted to show regarding this late week snowstorm threat from the 15th to the 16th of November. Here is the snow map first call.

Hey models are forecasting a big trough to enter the region with a pacific and sub-tropical jet phasing system. Could there be enough cold air present? That is still a great question.

Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period. EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow. I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS. This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastline. GFS is finally showing snow precip accumulating for CHH. There is a strong potential for a storm center on the East Coast, but that is where the forecast departs on the model guidance. Stay tuned!

While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England. Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region. Would like to see more and better model support over the next two weeks to get better confidence with this idea. For now, we will have a succession of rainstorms impacting the Northeastern US with flooding rains and severe weather this weekend as an upper-level trough tilts to the negative position as it moves through New England. This will determine the potential for a lot of wind on the coastline as the high-resolution models point to a significant wind event. Stay tuned! This winter will get exciting.

A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame. A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period. The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days. EURO, GFS both have this system. Cold temps look to stay prevalent throughout the rest of the month. Stay tuned

The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models. I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below. An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days. As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface low will develop and rapidly deepen moving NNEward towards eastern ME causing a blossoming area of precip and snow to the northwest of the track of the surface low as it taps the arctic jet which closes off at H5 over eastern ME causing extreme deepening of the surface low as it moves NNEward. This low will bring rain to eastern New England with an area of blossoming heavy precip as it tracks northward. This could be a sign of an active New England snowfall this winter season, especially favoring eastern MA, NH and ME.

Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm. The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere. Will share more later tomorrow.

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year. +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond. Still a lot of data coming in. WIll update you on the latest when it comes imminent.

A huge start in the peak of hurricane season will begin tomorrow afternoon as a tropical wave continues to emerge off the Western African Coastline east of the Cabo Verde Islands. The dangerous storm will develop by Monday, Labor Day. over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

To the greatest of my ability and against all of the obstacles in life in my way, I will get through them all and create the greatest writing company ever known to man.

Well, guys and gals, the first novel is being rewritten now, the previous draft I finished wasn't good enough, so I am taking James Patterson's masterclass and I am learning the art of writing.

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night. Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays. Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.

Right now, the Sea Surface Temperatures south of New England are ripe for a hurricane landfall as far north as 41N, west of 70W. Nantucket Sound is in the mid-70s and the 79.5F line is about up to Delaware Coastline. Ripe for hurricanes.

This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business. We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England. While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts. If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream. While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact. An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas. It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials. All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.

I said no to the deal that a self-publishing company offered me, I am going the traditional route with my first novel. JWN Productions

It is in the editing process at this moment, I will let you read it as soon as I feel its ready. I am not getting published at this time.

Ladies and Gentlemen of Americanweather.com forums, I have tremendous news to tell everyone interested. My novel about three monster category five hurricanes making landfall on the US during a 36 hour time frame will be allowed to be published within the next few months.

After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season. He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George. However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks. He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup. Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019. Thoughts in the comments section?

My latest draft of the Awakening Dawn is ready to be read by anyone willing to read the novel. It is 291 pages long and 97,000 words deep. It is about the precursor hurricane landfalls before the end of the world starts. It is the first in what I hope is a series of novels, first one is called, "Awakening Dawn", the second one is called "Until Dawn, and Until Dusk", then the third novel in the series is "End of the Dusk"

Novel One in the Franchise of the Awakening Dawn: "Awakening Dawn" close to 248 pages down, almost to 83,000 words

My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point. It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions. It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products. I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects. If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise. Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork. I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world. I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.