Trent

Nice write up. Should be the best event of the year. --- I'm calling BS on CLE's 3.3" of snow yesterday. We'll see if it gets adjusted downward, but they were the max total of any place on the PNS yesterday. When they reported a 1" snow depth at 5pm with 2.8" that's a red flag. Even if they cleared a snowboard in between it shouldn't have been that high. Frustrating that we are now measuring phantom snowfalls.

Climate report from CLE shows 2.8" snow with a 1" snow depth at 5pm. This is the epitome of stat padding. This event also highlights the fundamental flaws in snow measuring. If it starts snowing at 11am and 6 hours later only 1" of snow is on the ground, but 2.8" is recorded because the snow board was able to be cleared during the middle of that 6 hour period at 18z. We'll see what the final tally ends up being, but pretty frustrating that today is going to go down as the biggest snowstorm of the season with never more than an inch on the ground.

CLE is up to .40" liquid equivalent for the day. Had this happened with temps in the upper 20s, could have been a much different picture. I'm curious what CLE will report as a snowfall for the day. Probably a 4-5:1 ratio snow out there.

Winter is playing a cruel joke on us for sure. We've been under a moderate band of snow for hours with no let up in site. However, marginal temps are really keeping anything from accumulating more than an inch or so. This "could" have been quite the event had it been a few degrees colder.

Definitely looks interesting. Flow for the latter half of the week is N and NW so all areas should see some lake effect accumulations.

At Hopkins the lowest I could find was 31.1" back in 1957/1958. At this point, the airport's least snowy season is certainly in play. I guess eyes are now on Tuesday as it looks interesting at this point, by this winter's standards.

It's actually 8.8" back in 1918/1919, which is mind blowing. Second place is 21.5" in 1931/1932. Those records are from downtown, so the stats pre 1940s to post 1940s can't really be compared apples to apples. I want to say the airport's least snowy winter is low 30s, but not sure off the top of my head.

CLE is pretty much the "biggest loser" in the Midwest for snow this year. CLE sits at a pathetic 8.8" on the season, normal is 39", so that's 22.6% of normal. Is there another climate site in the Midwest that's doing worse than 22.6%? CLE still averages about 29" of snow from here on out to the end of winter. So theoretically if things turned around to normal tomorrow, CLE would end the season at 37.9", still an extremely pathetic winter total. It's really hard to say what LES will do at CLE, it's often feast or famine. If we get into a cold NW flow for 7-10 days, CLE could pick up an inch or so every few days from passing troughs and clippers, but that wouldn't even make a dent in the deficit. CLE really needs an enhancement set up to make any decent dent in the snowfall deficit. I'm banking on a late March/early April quick hitting synoptic event for CLE that drops 6" and starts melting right away. Just enough to make the winter less futile, just enough to annoy everyone who thought spring was here, and too late in the season to get any enjoyment out of it.

Since the records have been kept at the airport, there's never been a winter below 25". I'll take the under though and say CLE finishes around 24". That still allows them about 15.2" to fall for the rest of the season. It's pretty unusual for Lake Erie to be wide open this time of year so any cold shot could make up for lost time. The question is will the wind trajectory be favorable for us?

There was an article in the Cleveland Plain Dealer that said, since 1950 at the airport, there's never been a winter with this little snow at CLE before through the end of January. This really has been a clunker of a winter so far. Previous clunkers of 2011/2012, 2001/2002, and 1997/1998 can't even compare to this disaster of a winter. Max snow depth at CLE this winter is a pathetic 2". If we don't see any appreciable snowfall by the 10th of March, I'll be ready for spring.

Satellite today shows that a lot of ice melted between Toledo and the Erie Islands. Incredible that we've yet to have a legitimate storm to track this season. Winter 2011/2012 seems like a winter wonderland in comparison to this year. If CLE had the 10th snowiest February, March, AND April they'd still finish over 10 inches below normal on the season. While I wasn't expecting normal snowfall this winter, at this point way below normal is pretty much a lock.

Satellite pictures show it being pretty thin out there today. CLE overperforming today with a high of 46, which will aid in melting. The central basin should stay mostly ice free with the western basin becoming much more slushy. Now of course we need the right set up ...

Looks like the upcoming storm will create NE winds running the full fetch of Lake Erie. Could there be some lake effect west of CLE through Sandusky? Looks like the GFS tries to get something going.

Those that cash in on NW wind events have been shut out for 3 years. It's been very noticeable in Cleveland's secondary snowbelt so I'm not surprised it's the same across the lake in London. After this morning's dusting, CLE is sitting at 8.2" on the season ... running a nice 22" deficit for the season. IMBY, it's the same story, I'm at 8.5" for the season. Even with "all the snow" the past 10 days or so, the snowfall deficit hasn't budged at CLE. CLE is long overdue for a decent synoptic storm or lake effect event for that matter, especially for a locale that averages 68" per season.

Sitting at a 48 hour total of 2.8" here. I give the storm at the end of the week a 10% chance it does anything in NE Ohio.

The rich get richer. A very nice east west primary band is setting up through Lake County and Northern Geauga. We'll see if it slides south at all tonight.

Picked up maybe a half inch overnight of very dry small flake size snow. Disappointing to see the bands orienting themselves NW/SE but not making it here. CLE has had 6.4" since last Sunday, but hasn't had more than 2" on the ground, with a similar story IMBY. I forget how "easy" it is to add to the seasonal snowfall total here without much to show for it.

Picked up 1.5" so far. Nice little band extending through the west side right now. Hopefully it can hold through the night.

I've always been fascinated by those primary east/west bands that hit Cuyahoga County (for obvious reasons). I've also wondered if there's ever been a north south primary band from Lake Huron that continued across Erie into Cuyahoga for any appreciable amount of time. I'd imagine these are rare but if the do happen could produce those 1-2' event totals. The difficulty with LES in Cuyahoga County has always been duration. 40s last night took a toll on the snowpack. I've got lots of bare patches and I see CLE is reporting a Trace depth. As dewpoints rise today, I wouldn't be surprised to see it completely wiped out. I'm sure you east siders will still have snow cover before the next event this weekend.

What a nice band development last night, too bad it was just a few miles too north. The hi res models almost always have a southern and western bias with lake band placement, winds just never got around to 280-290 last night for a two hour period as indicated. I did find it comical how much "hype" this little 2-3" clipper produced on media. Granted it hasn't snowed much at all this winter, but in the end it was 2.7" of wind blown high ratio fluff, hardly noteworthy in a place that averages over 65" per year. With the winds I still have a lot of grass showing on my lawn with the snow drifted elsewhere. I feel like this event has only whet my appetite for a real winter storm, but now we wait.

BUF WRF models continue to show a nice primary east/west band developing through Cuyahoga County into Geauga tonight before shifting northward.

That was a pretty good band that just ripped through. Worst possible timing with peak rush hour. I wish I could lock in that LES band for tonight. That's generally the best scenario for us near west siders to get decent accums.

Looks like a nice moderate band getting ready to slide through. I had about 1.5" when I got up.

As always, nice write up. Winter forecasting here is difficult. Interesting that the winter weather advisory amounts are only 1-2" in the text portion. I've never fully understood the whole winter weather advisory thing. Many times AFDs will explicitly mention that snowfall will be in the 2-4" range and thus they won't be putting out advisories.

I had a little over a half inch from some of those transient bands from about 6-10pm last night. It seems underperforming is the motto of this winter. We'll see what the clipper does tonight.