CoraopolisWx
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Everything posted by CoraopolisWx
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The Canadian is refusing to backdown. Going down with the ship. -
Instead of a slow bleed, they must be expecting a sudden burst of cold air at all levels. This should promote decent snow growth.
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Is the cold air going to drag through, or blast through ? I want that classic rain to heavy snow burst.
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Although we might get a bit more rain than we'd like, I still like our position with regards to better rates.
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Reporting in.
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Guidance has been consistent with a general 2-4” Christmas Eve. Outside of a major shift, a white Christmas is very likely.
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Just a slushy coating on the steps.
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Must of had a stronger push of warm air here. There was a lot of dripping this morning. None of the snow accumulated.
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Guidance showing promise for Christmas eve snowfall. Maybe we can crack the 20" mark for the month next week.
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Definitely gives me an old school early 90's vibe, where the day after the main storm, a small disturbance would freshen the snowpack. Temps are relatively pleasant, which makes the clean up easier.
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Their office where the measurements are official, is down the road a bit from the Walmart up in Moon. I think the banding wasn’t quite as proficient out in Moon, as opposed to the City and points east.
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When the Euro held serve last night, confidence in reaching warning criteria was good. Combine that with the short term guidance this morning, along with the right conditions, 8-12" was possible.
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December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs
CoraopolisWx replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That heavy band has really set up nicely up there. Looks like the one that we had earlier, and the one in the ridges has merged over you. -
Kinda surprised with about 9.5" here in Carrick. Definitely a workout walking around measuring, but fun.
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Nexrad showing 40-45 dbZ in the center of that band moving NNE.
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Short term guidance still looks good. We still have a shot a double digits, if the banding can over perform this evening. The key was getting off to a good start.
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I think everyone is taking a breather/dinner. Tomorrow will hopefully be a fun day of nowcasting and obs. At least I am.
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Yeah, it seems that the trend of all the guidance provides us with at least a region wide 4-6" snowfall now. However < 10" is becoming more possible for the metro.
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I would say the overall feel of this storm reminds me a little bit of Jan 1996 and Jan 2016. Hopefully the Jan 1996 part carries more weight.
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IMHO, we are going to have a relatively small window where lift/energy and moisture are good. Efficient snow growth will be key to get off to a fast start, and with some luck, reach low end warning totals before the coastal absorbs everything.
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That weak 850 low tracking into Ohio and right over us while it decays is not ideal. Further south and stronger is what we need. Obviously a closed 500 low would be great, unfortunately non of the guidance is showing anything close to that at this time. I don't expect any real answers until Tuesday. But it is nice not having to wait until late January or February to track something.
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Seems like the OP’s have the 850’s more tightly wound. Would like to see a more elongated 850 low, and 500 low for that matter. Basically if someone else has to get 2ft for us to get a 1ft, then so be it.
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Yeah, especially for the Altoona/State College area that go from 2-3" to 2 ft in a short distance. Reminds me of the brutal cutoff we had Jan 2016.
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Not exactly the same setup, but this was an early holiday present. Early dismissal Thursday the 10th, and school closed on Friday.
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Tough to measure with everything wind blown here. Estimate about 4".
