jayyy

Not often you see most models trend our way inside 48. Let’s see if 0z at least holds serve. Improvements would of course be even better but I’m not going to get too greedy with this one.

Yep. I’d take exactly the setup it’s advertising in a heartbeat for our neck of the woods. We’d be cold enough up here to manage decent ratios too - no sloppy nonsense. Ideally, a 30-40 mph bump north but I won’t be too greedy lol

About to roll in here with a cool 0.5 - 1” area wide with a 3” bulleye over CHO

HERPDYDERP is bullish AF lol

Can we manage to get a solid advisory event out of this sucker?

The trend is undeniable across the spectrum. A general 1-3” with lollipop 4”-5” SW of DC near CHO seems likely

General 1-2” on the Canadian w/ 4-5” lollies outside CHO

Lol, the gfs was about to accidentally spit out an area wide SECS and had to reconfigure

Honestly, expect up to 1” for most of MD and NoVA with best case upside 2-3” if the storms a bit juicier than progged. Best chance for that is dc south.

6z 12k nam 10:1 Obviously, it’s the 12k nam and it’s on its own island, so I wouldn’ take it too seriously. Still a decent amount of spread being only 72 hours out but the windows closing quickly for the gfs to get back to 6z yesterdays solution

NAM’d!

Miller b type snow map from the ukie. 6+ for most of us ain’t bad though. Of course, nyc to New England gets smoked

Thread, dare I say? King gfs is in

Few more ticks in the right direction and this could be a 6+ area wide event

Here’s the 10:1 through 120, so not quite accurate but a general depiction

Decent snows occurring between 102-108

1037 high in Canada

It does. 96 is even better

96

Not sure this will get it done, but let’s see the next few frames

Disagree..every model says no every model says no to what? A SECS? Lol. Lower your expectations. The 18z gfs dropped 4+ in your area didn’t it?

It’s a good thing the GFS’s 10:1 snowfall map will change 20 times between now and the 14th then huh

Far too much progressive west to east action with an active NS is definitely niña’esque

So we have potentials on the table for the 14th and 18th. Looks like the latter will likely have a better setup in place but both bear watching. Not a terrible spot to be as far as the euro is concerned for the Valentine’s Day threat. Definitely sucks to keep having to rely on the +PNA to be just right (position and strength) and hoping for an early negative trough tilt. Those timing systems typically end up getting together too late for our latitude (a la the blizzard a few weeks ago) but hey, maybe we get lucky with one or two of these. I’d certainly take a 3-6/4-8” type event out of a pattern like this. As PSU said, we need some luck, which we haven’t had much of this winter.