jayyy

Good point. Add it to the list of things we need to unfold just right to get accumulating snow around these parts!

Rain / snow line is collapsing quickly in C MD but we won’t have much precip left to capitalize. Guess we can enjoy the hour or two of fatty flakes

It’s doing the Paul Simon….

Yep. My offspring is in HS and she was excited for a snow day. Totally forgot about middle and elementary schools

Well… it’s mostly snowing.. precip is like gone though, so

Ah. Yeah my daughters in HS. Got this at 8pm last night

HoCo’s been closed since last night friend. It was a half day to begin with and they caved early last night

In the short term… sure. But we still have at least a few more potential threats to track over the next few weeks. As PSU said a week or two ago, our best chances will come in the 21st-28th window when we have a more ideal setup for a coastal storm to develop. Definitely would have been nice to cash in on a few inches from this one today with models primarily showing us below freezing for the next week to allow snowpack to hang around, but we can’t win em all I guess.

Yeeeep. Can easily see how the GFS’s solution from yesterday could have unfolded if cold air got here like 2 hours earlier, but the timing just isn’t right. Oh well. Ended up being exactly what models showed a few days ago. A mainly rain to snow nothing-burger. On to next Tuesday!

Outside of the front magically stalling out and sending that train of shortwaves toward us we aren’t getting anywhere close to verifying our advisory lmao

Probably wasn’t the best move for us to bank on the GFS in this setup for sure. It’s been the king so far this season, but we also haven’t seen a frontal wave rain to snow setup before today. This setup is more in the wheelhouse of models like the hi res NAM since we’re talking about a potential for rain to heavy snow at 32-33 degrees. Minute details mean everything, which isn’t exactly the GFS’s specialty.

Certainly appears that way. May very well come down to models being just to 1-2 hours off on the arrival of cold air. Unless that R/S line starts hauling ass, I’m not sure we see more than an hour or two of wet snow that doesn’t stick to roadways. Bummer. My son up at the Mount in Emmitsburg just texted and said they’re currently seeing a rain/snow mix

To the naked eye, timing wise, it looks like the best dynamics may be east of us by the time the flip occurs. Snow/rain line getting stonewalled around the BR. Need that sucker to starting pushing SE. Seeing heavy precip roll in now with some nice yellows and dark greens in DC proper. Should help the cause and cool the column down. Have to hope there’s enough juice left in the tank for us to cash in a quick couple of inches. Not looking likely though

35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster.

Changeover happening as we speak in higher elevations up highway 15 near Thurmont and smithsburg, as well as in NoVA. Rain/snow line appears to be right along I-81 currently. Heavy precip along the front and streaming in from the SW as this unfolds. All comes to how much QPF remains once we flip over. If there’s another 0.25” of liquid left in the tank, we still have a shot at 2”. Can definitely see how the GFS (with its known biases) was seeing 3-4” in the metro corridor yesterday. Should still see a decent amount of QPF as precip is coming in like a wall, but the GFS is likely going to be slightly off when it comes to changeover time, which makes all the difference in a marginal event. When we fall short in these setups, this is almost always exactly why. Models bring in cold air just too soon and overestimate remaining precip once the flip occurs. We should know by 7-8a whether or not this will dud. NWS sticking with their guns (renewed the WWA @ 3:40 AM — 2” with 3-4” lollies from 6a-1pm) Let’s see if they’re right.

The pattern is done? What? Why? Don’t worry so much about vanishing fantasy storms in the 168-384 hr range on individual OP runs. Use the OPs loosely to get an idea of the overall potential ahead (will we have a source of cold air? are models sniffing out a ridge out west? Any potential storms forming? NS / SS interaction? Etc) Worrying about smaller details such as storm track, rain v. snow is pretty much irrelevant this far out. Next run could very well show 3 crippling snowstorms, which we should also take with a grain of salt. We look to the long range for an overall framework of the pattern ahead, use the medium range to begin sniffing out individual threats, and the short range brings us details / clarity on those specific threats.

Have a good friend from my college days who lives out in Lexington KY reporting heavy snow - big flakes with 1” per hour rates. Said temps crashed like a rock once the main batch of precip arrived and it’s sticking with ease. Heavy snow in WV and KY with a moisture train trailing back to the TX / LA border with strong thunderstorms popping up on the tail end. Not sure how much of that precip is supposed to make it up this way, but if we can drop to freezing by 6-7am, we should be money for 2-3” of paste. Just had a heavy rain shower come through. Temps falling slowly. 38*F

So. Close. But so far.

Latest HRRR shows more snow in NJ and into NYC / LI than our area GFS may be turning us over too quickly - almost all other models are less snowy this AM. Radar is definitely juicy to the west and temps are down to 37 here, so let’s see how this all unfolds.

Sure.

What about this radar screams “dud” to you?

WWA verbiage upgraded to say isolated 3-4” lollies. Let the games begin

Elaborate!

Def not a Winchester area jack type event. Best lift well SE and temps aren’t enough to “even” things out. Definitely thinking about going down to Howard county tonight to stay at my broski’s house to catch the fun

Yessir! I’m supposed to work tomorrow in Columbia - thinking about staying down at my brothers tonight in Ellicott city. HoCo may be in a prime spot in terms of Temps / precip