jayyy

Cold air source to our north with an active jet to our south…. Just in time for February 5th-10th. 2010 Redux anyone?! .

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Up in Saratoga Springs, NY until Tuesday visiting an old college friend . They live about 3 miles east of Saratoga performing arts center (SPAC) Took me an extended weekend away from work with some extra vacation days to burn. WWA up for 2-6” locally. Going to be an elevation dependent storm, even up here. There’s about 2” worth of snowpack from the last few days as a base leading in. Thinking the area I’m in sees about 3” from this storm. Certainly looking drier than it did a few days back. 35 and cloudy - feels like winter fo sho. Won’t PBP it because I’m not cruel. Hopefully some snowpack to our NW will finally help our area going into early Feb.

So depressing to see that type of track and your area over to mine not getting any snow out of it .

I’ve never bought into this idea of a wall to wall torch in February. Especially after the warmth we just had in January (zero days below freezing for highs) We don’t typically see two very warm months back to back like that. Do we go through a 7-10 day window of warmth? Perhaps very warm? Probably. February is volatile like that, especially during a niña… but the MJO, among other teleconnections, are just so hard to nail down in the long range. We all know we’ve had an epically terrible winter so far, and while it’s possible we strike out entirely, it’s not likely. Got to think we see some chances arise February into early march, even if they’re marginal in nature, and even if there’s warmth mixed in there. Unfortunately the progressive regime won’t allow a prolonged 3+ week period of winter weather, but I also don’t think we simply torch because the calendars turned to the month of February. .

I think it’s a legit theory that we may have entered a new regime of extremes. CC is certainly making marginal setups harder to overcome, which has pretty much been every potential we’ve come across for the past 2 years. Shitty winters may be god awful going forward. Good winters could still be big winners; with fewer “average” winters in between. We’ll have a much better idea next winter when we finally enter a more favorable base state -- modoki anyone?! — whether or not we can still do sustained cold and snow or if we truly are fucked. Winter 2010 and 2015 weren’t THAT long ago, but it’s possible that period panned out so well because we were in a transition period where we saw larger storms due to AGW but had not quite crossed over the warmth threshold yet. I’m still in the “we don’t have enough data to make a full determination” camp, as it’s possible that we see another stretch of great winters and that we have just been extremely unlucky, but it’s become VERY obvious that CC has seriously harmed our chances at scoring in marginal setups. The thought of us getting a significant snowfall in a +NAO is laughable nowadays, but that wasn’t always the case. .

Can confirm that every east coast subforum’s January 2023 thread is just as much of a dumpster fire as ours. Honestly moreso. We at least do a good job analyzing our failures. [emoji23] Glad to call you crazy bastards my weather fam.

00z icon likes the threat on the 26th but we’re still 6 days out with a storm coming through Sunday. Lots of time for things to change. Certainly like seeing that HP up in Canada, which doesn’t budge, and snowpack to our NW from wave 1 helps keep cold air entrenched. Too bad we’re still 6 days out [emoji23] Oy… this is going to be a tense next 6-7 days of tracking.

Agreed. Inclined to wait for wave 1 to move through entirely before getting too excited or bummed about wave 2’s prospects. Wave 1 is going to have an impact on our second wave around the 26th. We don’t know what type of impact quite yet. .

Step in the right direction verbatim. However I’m inclined not to pay too much mind to the details of wave #2 (26th) on models until the Sunday wave moves through and we get a better idea as to how it’ll impact wave 2. Wave 1 track / intensity, the spacing between waves and how far south wave 1 drags the boundary will greatly impact the outcome of wave 2. Best we allow models to get a grasp on wave 1. That’ll also put us in the 3-4 day window, which is the ideal time to start nailing down details. .

NAMs gonna lead the way. 3” for your area over to mine. I’m feeling it .

Could be for sure. I’m much more interested in what the NAMs showing inside 48 but I’ll take it sticking with its same general evolution for now.

Nice little 3” event IMBY verbatim. Not bad for a storm that I thought had very little chance to produce much of anything. 4” lollipop about 15 miles west of me. Would like to see the GFS move toward this tonight though. NAM being on an island 72 hours out isn’t the best place to be. .

Approve. Really hope it’s onto something .

It definitely seems odd. Looks like it’s headed up the coast in a favorable spot, and then it hangs left’ish. Odd. .

Just peeped it. JUST on the right side of the fall line here. Dangerous place to be but also rewarding sometimes if it pans out right. Too bad it’s on an island. .

I’m at a concert! Show us the money .

we’re soooo close. I’m going to be of the same mindset if our area gets near shafted the rest of the winter [emoji23] .

I prefer my digital snow porn in 12 or 32k [emoji23] .

General rule of thumb the last 2 winters…. if LR ensembles show a great pattern, it’ll likely fizzle as we get closer. If they show garbage, they verify [emoji23] in all seriousness…. If it is true that Señorita Niña is finally dying out by around late Feb into march, then perhaps we get lucky with a 3 week window of winter weather on the backend. We all know the affect that two very different air masses clashing has on producing large storms. While snow is generally tougher to come by late in the season, the big boy storms come out of the woodwork in that period as well. Who knows. I’ve learned not to discount anything at this point. .

Meanwhile it’s thunderstorming at my friends place in Toledo OH in mid January. Tells you everything you need to know about this shitshow of a Fall 2.0 we’re in. .

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Agreed. I know it’s not a perfect science and technology is improving as we go along… but my god. 45 and rain and 33 and 2-3” of snow IMBY is a pretty big spread 3 days out. Really hope 00z tonight into 12z tomorrow brings some clarity. .