jayyy

Feels like I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but there’s a reason I’ve been hoping for this type of overrunning boundary pattern into a cold air dome. Yeah, we all want the KU, especially after a torturous last 24 months, but during a year where any semblance of amplification pumps the SER ridge up like a gym rat on roids and cuts storms to our west, I’d rather see weaker waves ride south of here and dump 2-4/3-6 than try to thread the needle with a stronger low approaching from the SW. It’s just not our year for strong Miller A’s and it’s pretty much never out year for Miller B’s given our latitude. Who knows, perhaps we get lucky with a blowup off the coast of VA with one of these weaker lows along the boundary. Let’s get some cold air in place and an active storm track to our south. The rest will sort itself out. I’m tired of praying we’re going to thread the needle because models 10-15 days out have a few runs where it works out that way, just to watch it fall apart in the 5-7 day range..

Meanwhile… in northern Texas and central Oklahoma…. [emoji849] .

Oklahoma City has a warning up for 3-6” of snow. We can’t spare an inch. This winters been rough man. NYC and BOS are also about to get the shaft on this next one.

I’m just going to stay in upstate NY at this point [emoji23] for fucks sake .

Such a beautiful area! I may or may not be contemplating staying until tomorrow. 6-12” watch up! .

Ended up with 7.5” in east Saratoga springs. Heading back home tomorrow. Hope to bring winter home to Maryland with me [emoji1696][emoji1696] .

Don’t worry, the 12z euro will probably reel you back in for a moment, just to pull the plug at 00z [emoji23] .

I’ll take your digital euro snow [emoji23] .

FAR better CAD signature there with snow into VA, instead of in SW PA. NAM alone on an island is suspect. NAM / Euro combo? Perhaps they are catching onto something. Gotta think it turns wet fair quickly with a low tracking that far west, but I’d gladly take a solid 2-3”+ inch front end thump. 0.25 - 0.4” of QPF falling as snow within a couple hour window in NW zones as depicted here would be fun to watch unfold. Euro at 60ish hours is right in its wheelhouse. If 12z & 00z tomorrow shows something similar and other models trend this way, then color me interested. Could just as easily be a hiccup run too. Watch the 6Z NAM paint something similar [emoji23] 6z seems to be when NAM spits out wild solutions.

The GFS tracks 4+ storms up the coast between 1/31 and the end of the run. All forming somewhere near VA and the Carolinas. Very active pattern coming up. Now we need that pesky cold air to have a legit press and be stubborn enough able to push back against these storms. Otherwise they all end up like today. IE: Taking nice offshore tracks with cold rain.

Is it true that 18z and 6z uses less data than 12z and 0z? Because those runs always seem to be most whacky with the craziest swings in output. .

33 / heavy snow in Saratoga Springs NY. WWA upgraded to a warning for 4-8”. Definitely glad I chased this one. My soul needed it. Hoping I can bring some good winter juju back with me to Maryland on Tuesday with a few models showing some glimmers of hope for Wednesday! Edit — beer is good.

Cold air source to our north with an active jet to our south…. Just in time for February 5th-10th. 2010 Redux anyone?! .

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Up in Saratoga Springs, NY until Tuesday visiting an old college friend . They live about 3 miles east of Saratoga performing arts center (SPAC) Took me an extended weekend away from work with some extra vacation days to burn. WWA up for 2-6” locally. Going to be an elevation dependent storm, even up here. There’s about 2” worth of snowpack from the last few days as a base leading in. Thinking the area I’m in sees about 3” from this storm. Certainly looking drier than it did a few days back. 35 and cloudy - feels like winter fo sho. Won’t PBP it because I’m not cruel. Hopefully some snowpack to our NW will finally help our area going into early Feb.

So depressing to see that type of track and your area over to mine not getting any snow out of it .

I’ve never bought into this idea of a wall to wall torch in February. Especially after the warmth we just had in January (zero days below freezing for highs) We don’t typically see two very warm months back to back like that. Do we go through a 7-10 day window of warmth? Perhaps very warm? Probably. February is volatile like that, especially during a niña… but the MJO, among other teleconnections, are just so hard to nail down in the long range. We all know we’ve had an epically terrible winter so far, and while it’s possible we strike out entirely, it’s not likely. Got to think we see some chances arise February into early march, even if they’re marginal in nature, and even if there’s warmth mixed in there. Unfortunately the progressive regime won’t allow a prolonged 3+ week period of winter weather, but I also don’t think we simply torch because the calendars turned to the month of February. .

I think it’s a legit theory that we may have entered a new regime of extremes. CC is certainly making marginal setups harder to overcome, which has pretty much been every potential we’ve come across for the past 2 years. Shitty winters may be god awful going forward. Good winters could still be big winners; with fewer “average” winters in between. We’ll have a much better idea next winter when we finally enter a more favorable base state -- modoki anyone?! — whether or not we can still do sustained cold and snow or if we truly are fucked. Winter 2010 and 2015 weren’t THAT long ago, but it’s possible that period panned out so well because we were in a transition period where we saw larger storms due to AGW but had not quite crossed over the warmth threshold yet. I’m still in the “we don’t have enough data to make a full determination” camp, as it’s possible that we see another stretch of great winters and that we have just been extremely unlucky, but it’s become VERY obvious that CC has seriously harmed our chances at scoring in marginal setups. The thought of us getting a significant snowfall in a +NAO is laughable nowadays, but that wasn’t always the case. .

Can confirm that every east coast subforum’s January 2023 thread is just as much of a dumpster fire as ours. Honestly moreso. We at least do a good job analyzing our failures. [emoji23] Glad to call you crazy bastards my weather fam.

00z icon likes the threat on the 26th but we’re still 6 days out with a storm coming through Sunday. Lots of time for things to change. Certainly like seeing that HP up in Canada, which doesn’t budge, and snowpack to our NW from wave 1 helps keep cold air entrenched. Too bad we’re still 6 days out [emoji23] Oy… this is going to be a tense next 6-7 days of tracking.

Agreed. Inclined to wait for wave 1 to move through entirely before getting too excited or bummed about wave 2’s prospects. Wave 1 is going to have an impact on our second wave around the 26th. We don’t know what type of impact quite yet. .

Step in the right direction verbatim. However I’m inclined not to pay too much mind to the details of wave #2 (26th) on models until the Sunday wave moves through and we get a better idea as to how it’ll impact wave 2. Wave 1 track / intensity, the spacing between waves and how far south wave 1 drags the boundary will greatly impact the outcome of wave 2. Best we allow models to get a grasp on wave 1. That’ll also put us in the 3-4 day window, which is the ideal time to start nailing down details. .

NAMs gonna lead the way. 3” for your area over to mine. I’m feeling it .

Could be for sure. I’m much more interested in what the NAMs showing inside 48 but I’ll take it sticking with its same general evolution for now.

Nice little 3” event IMBY verbatim. Not bad for a storm that I thought had very little chance to produce much of anything. 4” lollipop about 15 miles west of me. Would like to see the GFS move toward this tonight though. NAM being on an island 72 hours out isn’t the best place to be. .