jayyy

Didn’t the niño officially take hold in June though? We were still in a niña at the end of last winter through spring. So using the entire year as a reference doesn’t seem right here. Most mets I follow have been saying the STJ likely won’t get going until late November / early December. Have to imagine it takes some time for the longwave pattern to become entrenched and for things to unfold downstream for us. We also had a pretty wet September. Pretty sure dry Octobers during niño years isn’t super uncommon either but someone correct me if I’m wrong. Think it’s still a tad early to be either too concerned or too optimistic about our chances this winter. If it’s still super dry come thanksgiving through December 15th, we can revisit the possibility of a drier niño. One thing is for sure… there are a ton of different factors at play here. Some of which could drastically help us, some that could crush our hopes. We’ve discussed winner and loser niños at length in here over the past several months. All it takes is 1 or 2 things at h5 to be wrong for it all to come crashing down, or vice versa. I think the takeaway currently is that this is the best h5 / longwave pattern we’ve had going into winter for nearly 7 years. How it all unfolds is anyone’s guess. I feel like we have a 65/35 chance of success vs failure this year given our new base state, which is a helluva lot better than the dismal chances we’ve had during the past several / consecutive niñas.

We take. For the love of god, please no sustained -PNA this winter [emoji15]

Maybe we’re the 2023 Jets and manage to pull out a win over the eagles despite all of the obstacles we face!

Very true that we could end up in a super niño regime. Believe there are other factors at play though. Weak niños can still end up being dry / warm for the east and super niños can still end up being snowy and cold.

I despise his analysis as much as the next weenie… but if we’re truly headed for a moderate to decently strong El Niño, this may be (generally) accurate. Early season could skew things a bit warmer… but I suspect we’ll have a deep wintry period to offset some of that. Active southern jet & subdued ridging in the Gulf of Mexico = wetter / cooler than normal for the south & mid Atlantic. Signs are also there that we may finally get some relief from the consistent -PNA pattern that’s made our lives hell for the past several years. Should finally see a +PNA pattern or two pop up this winter. We can and have cashed in without a strong block… but it’s very difficult to cash in if we’re also seeing a persistent -PNA regime. Neutral NAO and +PNA is workable…. -PNA not so much.

West based super niño or bust!!!! In all seriousness… if we’re seeing this same look on models as far as the strength / positioning of the Niño is concerned come late September and beyond… perhaps this winter will make up for the disastrous past few we’ve endured. REALLY like seeing the -PNA regime finally broken down.

Top 3 all time for the twin cities area.

Interesting.

Spring barrier though, no? I’d hold off a few weeks before getting too excited / worried about the strength of the impending niño. Hopefully we don’t get a super niño. Sure, MAYBE we get lucky and see another once in a blue moon monster like 2016, but those are hard to come by and it’ll likely be followed by another 2+ years of niña. A moderate to borderline strong niño is better for us.

Pretty dynamic storm out in the plains. Blizzard warning in the twin cities for 6-12” and tornado warnings in Iowa.

Heat sucks. Humidity sucks. Give me either snow / cold or 50s maybe low 60s, low humidity and sunny. I enjoy a cool spring day. Summer is my body’s kryptonite. 70s is bearable but 80+ and I’m profusely sweating [emoji28]

If I could pick an ideal weather, outside of having cold and snow, I’d pick 50s and sunny all year. I loathe the heat.

I’d take snow in may. No rush here. I despise the heat. I was referring to the purple on the snow map, not the temp map. Just commenting on the fact that the 6” the gfs showed IMBY earlier is likely BS is all.

Cold and dry in mid to late march. Fun.

You forgot to tell us how much your vacation cost per night. We’ve been eagerly awaiting [emoji1787]

Purpled at 228 hours in late march. What could go wrong

Giggity… .

I feel like January February and march are all going to end with a very similar average temp. Odd

Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43” [emoji23] Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.

Except 2-3 days later, the energy off the west coast comes onshore and deepens into yet another trough, with heights pumping out east. Eek.

GEPS looks like it was *trying* to get something going.

00z icon tried it… but too progressive

An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong [emoji23] .

Yay, another 12 feet of snow for the Cali mountains lol

What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours.