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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Don’t start it lol
  2. jayyy
    Ah, the ole’ weathernext/euro rule!
  3. jayyy
    Went to sleep, and not only was the 0z euro good, 6z was insane too. EPS on board. Oh boy. And here I thought I’d catch up on sleep this week.
  4. jayyy
    What’s that old weenie saying? Always believe the euro on the night of a snowstorm if it happens to fall 6 days before the next threat? Something like that.
  5. jayyy
    Sharper ridge out west this run for sure
  6. jayyy
    Boom. Unlikely outcome but dayum
  7. jayyy
    Let’s see what euro / euro ai have to say. We are at D6 after all. Not far from euros wheelhouse and the AI does pretty well at this range. LONG way to go, but it’ll be pretty encouraging if the euro holds its 18z idea generally
  8. jayyy
    PNA isn’t ideal. It’s all too flat. OTS is the most likely outcome unless models start to amp things out west over the coming days. That 18z euro had a shit load of things go right to have a coastal where it did. Threaded about 3 needles. We shall see. Certainly some better trends today but still a long way to go.
  9. jayyy
    Not good at all here in the sticks. My brother down in Ellicott city said his neighborhood hasn’t even been touched since last nights salting
  10. jayyy
    About to add to it next week
  11. jayyy
    Solid!! My mom FaceTimed me from the driveway mid afternoon and it was nuking out. Looked awesome. Congrats on the chase. I love living down here but boy do I miss living somewhere where niñas produce.
  12. jayyy
    Hometown homie! My parents live in Middletown. I grew up up there. Happy for you guys. 13-14” spotter reports @ 3 pm in the area so 18-20” is certainly possible Edit - I see you may be visiting the area. Nice chase!
  13. jayyy
    Why? Have you checked the temps for this upcoming week? Also, it snowed a foot in New Orleans last year - which averages 0.0” of snow annually. South Carolina snow is rare, but not impossible, especially on the heels of this airmass with a ton of snow / ice cover to the north / west. Not saying it’ll snow there, but I wouldn’t brush off the possibility entirely
  14. jayyy
    Is it though? Got thermals right but QPF very wrong. GFS totals across dc & Maryland likely verified better than the NAM. Gfs got the thermals wrong but NAM missed in an equally huge way on the front end. Euro got this most right IMO.
  15. jayyy
    11.25” of snow / sleet total. 0.0 of ZR Precip has shut off 22 degrees. Storm reports up N are also impressive. Spotter in my parents town reported 13” @ 3pm, damn. Have to be at 15-16” now.
  16. jayyy
    Unconventional double digit storm but I’ll sure as shit take it. Especially since we’ll be able to enjoy it all week. Models have lows falling to near zero 3-4 days this week. Going to be a great week leading up to our storm next weekend (hello 18z euro)
  17. jayyy
    GFS had me at 11.4 last night 00z. I ended up over 11”. NAM had me at 7.5. NAM had DC at like 3-4” It busted pretty badly on totals. It got thermals correct but completely missed the initial thump.
  18. jayyy
    1) thermals sure, but absolutely whiffed on the QPF. The model is literally being retired for a reason. 2) the gfs was significantly closer in ground truth for frozen totals for most of our area, particularly the metros, despite having the thermals incorrect 3) Chicago didn’t get more snow than many of us. In fact, Baltimore saw 5x more snow/sleet as Chicago Other than that, sure. Spot on.
  19. jayyy
    lol, JFC… no one’s punting anything. You just got probably 9” of snow/sleet that’ll stick around for 1-2 weeks with more chances ahead over the coming weeks. I feel like your soul needs a move to New York or something.
  20. jayyy
    If it was all snow, yeah, this was a 2 footer
  21. jayyy
    Heck yeah dude. Happy to see my old stomping grounds cashing in
  22. jayyy
    SWEET storm. Sure, all fresh pow would have been better but this was amazing in it’s own right. Can’t be mad at nearly a foot of snow/sleet
  23. jayyy
    Yeah man, I’m super jealous of my peeps up north. This is turning into a classic for them with HOURS to go
  24. jayyy
    Flakes are mixing in, but we’re primarily sleet. At least 3” of sleet so far and counting
  25. jayyy
    Perspective I guess but this is easily the most snow/sleet Ellicott city’s gotten in years… you have to be at what? 9”? I know you’re big dog hunting like the rest of us, but I wouldn’t call this wasted QPF
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