jayyy

Last storm I was glad I made the last second decision to stay put at my house due to the marginality of the event.... for this one, definitely still contemplating going a bit south to my brothers. W suburbs of DC/BAL appear to be a in a better spot for QPF with more than sufficient enough temps. UK backs this notion for sure. Shocker... another event where we are within 48 hours from start time and we are still seeing a 2-12” spread on the models

High pressure will wedge down along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians Wed with a CAD event expected to remain in place through the entire event Fri. Southern stream moisture and jet streak dynamics passing overhead Wed night will result in an expansive area of precip, mainly snow, Wed night into Fri morning. There have been some notable trends this morning, mainly to slow down the onset of precip Wed, and thus, to delay the end of it until midday Fri. The colder trend in temps profiles that started yesterday has basically stopped with basically all snow expected, except perhaps, mixed precip south of the I-64 corridor in central VA. The axis of highest QPF has also shifted south somewhat with guidance showing stronger higher precip building farther south. This appears to be a moderate to high QPF event with generally 0.5 inches liquid equivalent across northern MD to an inch south of I-66 in northern VA. Given the trend of slower onset of precip and impacts into the area until Wed night and after collaboration with neighboring offices to the west, it was decided to hold off of any watches at this time. However, confidence is high this will be a significant winter precip and long duration event (36-42 hrs in duration) with moderate impacts. For some areas, especially outside of the mtns and in southern areas, this will likely be the largest snow event this season so far. Great news for the DC/BAL corridor. LWX says this will likely be their biggest event of the season so far - inclined to agree here. Hoping you all cash in!

Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in along the eastern slopes of the Appalachains. Meanwhile, low pressure will be sliding by to our south. Wintry weather is expected to continue into Thursday. Still some uncertainty in regards to precipitation type for the duration of the event. Guidance overnight, which now includes the NAM, have started to trend cooler aloft, leading to a snowier solution across the region, especially the northern half. Do expect some mixing of sleet, snow, and freezing rain to occur across the southern half of the CWA. Will be tough, as usual, to pin point that mixing line at this point. This system continues into Friday morning as well, which will make this a fairly long-duration event. For the weekend, the pattern remains quite unsettled. An even colder arctic air mass will become wedged into the region Saturday, setting the stage for yet another winter weather event. First part of the day could be dry, though there is some spread there, so will maintain some chance POPs during the day. The bigger event comes late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are still fuzzy concerning temperatures aloft, thus not really sure of precip types at this point, but am growing increasingly confident in another winter storm. At this point, would certainly favor our northwestern zones, given climatology. However, plenty of time for things to change, so will continue to monitor in the coming days NWS also talking about nice accumulations. Gotta love these types of moisture feed events in our area. We historically do pretty well with them. Just need to fine tune a few details but 6+ seems quite likely for Wed into Thursday for most

Wednesday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. This is a lovely looking PZF. Please pan out.

I actually think you’re in a great spot for QPF IMO.

Euro has some really tasty panels in there. Woof.

100%! Hell, with this season’s trends, even being just north of the northern edge of the snow Max is a great spot to be in at D3

I was just about to say this.... if I was in the DC-BAL corridor I’d be thrilled to see the Max where it is right now

Hopefully some of the folks who had bad luck today and last weekend will see redemption by mid February. Potential is certainly there for a sustained period of cold and snow

Ok lol

Nailed our area IMO. Their forecast discussions also made clear that typical climo needs to be paid attention to. They caught a tough break in the area between 95 and 70/270, but that was a real time fail due to precip onset being delayed. It’s a tough call to make. Issue an advisory and it snows 6” in a few hours, that’s a much bigger problem than over estimation

Take another salty pill

Facts. 7” down to 4.5” within mere hours.

Actually surprised to see NNJ into the LoHud with very similar totals to us down here in carroll county. Looks like places NW of the big I-95 corridor cities that got in on that good banding and had a little help with lift ended up with around 6-7” region wide. It’s a shame snow didn’t arrive around midnight, this would easily have been 3-6+ for all.

Yep. Sure did

Oh, 100!%. Solid start to the season overall, even if it’s been a bumpy ride. Been lots of wintry days to enjoy, including 4 in the past week alone. We’re at about 30” on the season up this way. I know my climo is a bit more favorable due to latitude and elevation, but it just goes to show you how one or two things going in your direction could easily have you at 20+“ for the season No worries my friend, you guys are definitely due. I’m feeling real good about the next 2-3 weeks, especially after the -NAO reloads as we are entering MJO Phase 8. Should be prime for all to get in on the goods

Rooting for ya guys down in East HoCo to cash in over the next few weeks. Been in an unlucky spot all winter with these storm it seems man.

You have another few inches to go man. Congrats coastal NE NJ, NYC, E LI, and SE CT. Going to see 6-8+” easily.

Suspect that will be my fate here soon within the hour. Over 6” is a winner in my book. On to the next one!

My brother said he drove literally 4-5 mins west down 108 away from 29 and saw easily 2”+ more of snow OTG. I believe it. Radar app I use on my iPhone (Hi-Def radar) is pretty damn spot on with P type per people’s reporting here and there have been pockets of rain and mix all over east hoco this AM. Made its way into Germantown too. can really get a sense of everyone’s micro climates per their reports on this one.

First deathband has gone east. Another appears to be reloading near Frederick and coming my way. Rates picking back up again.

Ask and you shall receive. Looks like one should be swinging through momentarily. My brother in west EC just texted me and said it went from drizzle to nice flakes within minutes. Hope you get it!

Good stat packer I’d say! Enjoy them taters

Confirmed. This band is no joke.

SO close for that area. It will be a little painful to see OBS from Frederick county. Sounds like reports of between 4-6” there