jayyy

Going to be reeeeeal interesting to see if the GFS holds at 6z. Suspect it’ll nudge a bit toward the others

Got it. Appreciate the insight

I haven’t been paying enough attention to the minute details to fully understand what you mean here. The storm in southern UT-CO you’re referring to… what’s the significance of it dying out in NW TX to our storm and it unfolding more like the GFS? (TIA!)

Hot off the presses… LWX pushes watches ever so slightly SW to include bay adjacent counties west of the bay and SE Howard. MOCO and DC left out still. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 MDZ014-017-018-506-211500- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/ Anne Arundel-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Howard- 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Calvert, and St. Marys Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

All jokes aside though— we’d probably all feel much more confident in this if the majority of guidance didn’t put our CWA on the western fringe of the coastal and we had the euro on board. GFS takes a very delicate setup and portrays a near perfect dance between multiple pieces of energy. And it’s been damn impressive to see it stick to its guns. I hope to fucking hell it’s right for once. Crazier things have happened. The others try and some get very close but don’t quite get there, which is still also a possible outcome. Or something in between. We’re 2 days out. A spread of 4-18+” on models 48 hours out for DC to Baltimore is pretty rough lol. I’d feel MUCH better if I’m CAPE or the Jersey shore to BOS. Still a little shaky in these parts given the setup, especially west of 95. Hopeful the inverted trough pans out and somebody between 15 and 95 gets smacked. Can def understand the anxiety given the possible gradient around these parts - especially for the western crew. I feel good, Randy. I’d love to feel great.

You know damn well you’d be shitting your pants if you were home, Randy! [emoji1787]

PSA - I’m proud to see no LR HRRR or SREF plumes on here. Way to go team.

Would be pretty wild to see the GFS hold this all the way thru but I guess crazier things have happened. Also, that inverted trough throws a huge ? Into this storm. Some area between 15 and 95 will see a rather impressive bonus. I’d HATE to be NWS trying to make a forecast for the area from Winchester to Baltimore down to DC right now.

Not that the ensembles matter much at this juncture, but curious if the OP is east of the eps mean

Certainly one way to look at it for sure.

Dr Fuck No (Jokiiiiiing)

It is. And it’s something we need to watch. AI EC may not get QPF distribution correct but it’s very solid up top. GFS has been leading the way and has been ROCK steady so it’s nothing to freak out over (4-6+ is still solid in late feb if AI played out) but we def can’t just toss. Edit — to CAPEs point though, physics based models for complex setups under 48 hours should be our focus

Euro ai not so good

778 comments on a thread created hours ago while I was at work. I knew it had to be good.

Euro AI is slowly getting there