SnowGoose69

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now

And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"

The block is just too far north, would not have mattered even back then if it was that far up

13 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So the Wednesday into Thursday event maybe doesn’t go to rain? I thought it seemed like it was 

Might not inland, depends on how strong the system is, exactly where that high is positioned etc.  The 18Z RGEM high position not sure anyone inland goes over to rain really

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem also has 1-2 early Thursday morning 

Thursday would be decent if the system was not so amped up.  Its one of those SSW approachers with the high to our north but its just way to zonked right now the coast to see much snow.

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t 

Its funny how it mishandled yesterday here so similarly to how it mishandled the southern snow event that gave ATL 3-4 inches a few weeks back.  In both cases it was insanely far north inside the final 12-18 hours and practically dry slotted areas where the most snow fell.  I know some of the SNE forum posters have said in the case of systems that are more dynamic with WAA it can go overboard sometimes and handles the more modest intensity storms better

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

One thing to watch on that is the HRRR as it comes into range on this, its usually been able to see those jet induced areas of snow, sort of picked it up on the event last time which was mostly well to our south

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?

More just fast/progressive flow.  There is confluence stretched form NNE back to the Upper Midwest/Canada border which likely stops this from getting up to say BOS.  The north movement with this the last 2 days is a combo I think of the shortwave that you see crossing Quebec into NRN Maine and NB near 50 hours out being faster and out of the way and likely also the next system diving down into the Rockies/high plains possibly pumping the SE ridge a bit more downstream.

This sort of event often has a band of frontogenesis induced heavier snow up near the north fringe of the system.  Ratios could also be 12-15:1 with this, really need .20-.30 liquid to get this to be possibility of something more significant 

The 06z UKIE and AI went back south a bit, the high res GFS seems to indicate the 12Z GFS won't move, not a surprise to me as this is a storm that the GFS probably would be south of everything else but I don't think anything over 1-4 is realistic right now and the 4s would be SI/JFK.

The setup is becoming crazily complicated now, they are almost involving 2 waves which is partially why this has come north and now the big system behind it is trending way less "cutty" at 00Z which I think most agreed would happen since this pattern is not producing a Great Lakes bomb

NYC/LGA reported .20 liquid but just 1 inch this hour so ratios may have dropped to 7:-8:1 as can happen before a changeover

Yeah its real heavy now, LGA .08 liquid already this hour, easily could be 2 inches this hour

CPCantmeasure might have work cut out tomorrow AM, this is a classic case where they'll come in with a crazy low total because the sleet will compact it before the 1am measurement

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Same here neighbor, sounds like it's starting to ping a little bit now though.

Its that small subsidence zone between the two intense areas, will probably go all snow again when that area in WRN SI up through N-C NJ crosses, after that clears I think it goes all sleet

This storm is doing what I said last event could.  Heaviest rates sometimes happen in the first area that sees snow just N or E of where the mix line stalls for the longest, sometimes areas well N and E who get all snow out of the storm never see rates as intense though they might get higher amounts.  We saw it in Philly about 10 years ago, they got 8 inches in like 3 hours but eventually went to sleet and rain.

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nyc going to get over 4

Maybe 3, I think its changing over soon after 10pm but there could be 2 inches this next hour for sure

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

Echoes drop off in intensity here soon so some areas may see sleet mix back in but then another area of heavier echoes could cross after 930.  I would say 10-1015 the sleet line will probably cross the metro, it should begin moving quickly near or just before that

Just now, Allsnow said:

In 45 minutes? 

That seems high but rates could be 12:1 right now, NYC has had .07 already so could be 1 inch easily here

KNYC 090137Z AUTO VRB06KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG FEW005 OVC010 M01/M03 A3007 RMK AO2 P0007 T10111033

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Since this has been analoged to February 8, 1994, I want to see if we get similar heavy snowfall rates we had in that very memorable storm. The thundersnow was extremely memorable in that event but those snowfall rates brought true whiteout conditions for 2 hours.

That was just a wave more or less along a boundary, no surface low.  Outside of that first 3 hours only like 2 more inches fell, but 6 or so fell in 3 hours

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

Even ABE is now reporting UP, but honestly the 12Z Euro showed them mixing by 01z, its just a question if the area from like SMQ ENE through the metro sees the sleet line stall

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

But there’s also a lot of precip south of where the NAM has it so that’s wrong too. 

It'll probably get in here around 730, maybe 745, could come down hard for awhile but its hard to tell just yet if it'll be sleet or snow, it could be like 70% snow/30% sleet

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet having a bit of a hard time getting N that far of I-80 in PA which might be a good sign for us. But if the precip is delayed we have less time in any cold air aloft. I’d love to believe the HRRR but it easily might just be on crack. 

Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period.  The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the nam gets this right besides being a huge bust I'll never doubt it again in this sort of setup. At least inside 12 hours. Not so much beyond that 

Current radar sure matches the NAM better than any other model outside of the Euro, most already have extensive precip to the PA/NJ border by 23Z and not much is there