SnowGoose69

3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS coming around to the Friday torch now some agreement on temps breaking out into the 50s Friday at least south of the Pike .. Near 60 south of 84 looking possible .. Long range also moved towards EURO / EPS with the torch .. Here's the first 5 days of February

 

It sure is weird generally seeing more GEFS members and more GFS Op runs wanna be cold....thats the complete reverse of what we've seen most of the last 4 years when we have gotten faked out in the long range....it may be the typical tendency or "rumored tendency" as Tip said that the GFS just generally does worse in El Nino winters and the EPS/Euro tend to do better.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 

Probably too late to matter, if it did that the impacts would not take hold til mid March when we'd be done anyway...I still think 2/12-3/5 is going to likely average below normal though I am wondering if the MA might be more favorable for any storm track

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the other members of the ensembles showing the same ?

 

Mixed...I just looked from 190-204 the Op has the trof a bit more west than the ensemble average does but many individual members are similar to the Op

I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That is an interesting evolution though. When is the last time we had mild temps followed by the infusion of arctic air into a storm? That's like one of those Colonial tales of yore lol. Thou was enjoying the day prior to a bitter tempest following thy day after. Cattle blown away and Jebediah's house doth lost its roof. 

11/29/95 lol

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is trying for the end of the month 

The 06z Op run was hilariously "cold" from 150 to the end of the run, it tries to sort of 03-04/04-05 the CONUS where basically only the immediate NE and E coast has any semblance of cold air or below normal temps but that is probably a pipe dream as far as things being that good for that stretch

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS.  No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño.  Next year we go right back to strong Nina.  Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity

The ENSO models are gonna be brutally wrong if we get a strong Nina...not a single one really brings us below -0.8

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

I do not think its flipping by then...that said I am not highly confident right now outside of the belief that probably 2/1-2/7 or so is the worst stretch...I am not sure about there being a -PNA like ensembles sorta show since the ensemble charts show it being positive...it could just be a beatdown of the ridge due to the jet which is being displayed as a -PNA look on the anomaly height charts.

Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS trying to save the day here in the 11-15 day. Builds the ridge out west a little more.

The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything 

Just now, Allsnow said:

Want happened to the +pna with -epo looks we had to start February last week? It has morphed into a torch ugly 

The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns.

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Ya still think so?

Yeah, its all cumulative....in general if you have a near or below normal January which most places have had or will through 1/22, even if you go +5 for 15-20 days you won't see the degree of blooming you saw last year because January was so much milder than it has been in 2024 and blooming as well as fall color change on trees has a bit of an additive effect on what happened in the previous couple of months vs what is currently happening.  Also due to lack of a SER this pattern while above normal won't produce temps like you saw in 2018-2019-2023

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They might be near their seasonal average to date after today

Yeah I believe 8-10 inches through this stage for them is close to that though for BWI its likely still below

Just now, LibertyBell said:

In 2009-10 I assume they all beat Boston in snowfall by wide margins?

03-04 86-87 ithink are a couple of other years as well, maybe even 85-86

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Strange. Lots of background noise wreaking navoc?

It’s probably more the EPS is focusing on the whole Pac Jet but reality is by D16 on most of the three ensembles is well past when that issue peaks, it more or less peaks in the next 7 days 

Just realized DCA BWI PHL will have more snow on the season than even BOS has by the end of today, thats crazy 

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga. 

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north 

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs is fine, is not. Just calling it as I see it as of now. I’m sure we’ll have a good stretch with chances then whether or not we cash in well I guess we can all hedge on the under just from a persistency standpoint.
 

Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . 

I think those are possible in SNE.  I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous.

Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice retrograding Aleutian low towards month end with a popping pna. Hopefully we keep that pac driven look as we kick off feb and keep it around. A look we haven’t been able to sustain in years. 

The Op GFS was classic 97-98 after like 180 hours...not a terrible pattern but just simply too warm...the SE US would probably average near to slightly below in that pattern but up here would be 3-5 above 

TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea I don't get it

I still think the IVT will probably perform better than a ton of models show but those amounts north of TTN are nuts...some type of bizarre mesoscale shenanigans would have to unfold for that to transpire

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

euro is meh

Its always too dry...its probably realistic outside of C-SNJ but I expect there's plenty of 4-6 inch amounts there

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I don't want to sound dismissive of tropical forcing, it's got a role to play and a crucial piece of forecasting in the extended range.  But the correlations are often overvalued by forecasts at the mid and high lats, especially in recent times.

 

In my opinion the guys who use it as the foundational/principal basis for the majority of their forecasts tend to overvalue it's usefulness.  More pieces to the puzzle.  It's not the answer to all weather and it gets that reputation sometimes.

PSU in the MA forum has said he's noticed when the wave moves fast it has less impact...might be something to that