SnowGoose69

That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

Yeah its highly possible it did to some degree

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.

I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess 

LOL UKMET goes from New Orleans to Binghamton

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t even remember.  I think the GFS is the MRF and AVN combined.  But I can’t remember 

October 2002 I believe they were

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits

It also tends to be stubborn too...I've seen it not cave til 54-60 hours out many times 

That is pretty much in the good old days where I expect the GFS to be with both potential systems at this range

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks fleeting to me.

I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern

The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27

Rare case we want the GEFS to be right Day 14-16...the GEPS is brutal...the GEFS you can see that if you rolled it forward the PV would drop south, the SER would probably move east and we'd be back into the same pattern we have D9-10.  

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we may continue with the same storm track issues next week. Either a strung out and weak storm not able to pull in the colder air from the NW for coastal sections. Or a super amped storm like the Euro that draws in warm air off the Atlantic. 

My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2

I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days.  The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6.   The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March.  If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1.   TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave.  Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along.   I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast.  WTF

I think I'd rather be you guys around 1/15-1/16 than us up here.  If I could put odds in Vegas now on a VA/DC snow event that misses NY in that period I would.  I think anything that ejects 1/17-1/18 is an AL/TN/GA/SC snow event probably.

I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin….

I think the lately rarely seen GFS trying to overdo the cold push/suppression idea is playing in somewhat with it looking meek...I still think that there is a better chance the system next week is a DCA/NYC south hit for sure and then there may be some follow up wave that ejects behind that but that would be a deep south snow event probably or certainly NC/SC/GA

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Welcome to MJO 4 past the 20th

Given how slow models have been with it it'll probably be in 6 by then

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February 

The PNA maybe going positive could mute it...I also do not buy the -NAO just vanishing like that...I think it won't end up as bad as it currently looks

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Why is that? I don’t see an inversion on the soundings.

It is ever so slight on JFK on the NAM 3-4,000 ft but not much.  The HRRR does show max wind gust potential of 45-50kts at JFK and maybe higher on LI

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

do these models underestimate the inversion or something?  They are almost always overdone....

They usually seem to do a good job in Dec-Feb..we've seen occasions though in Sep-Oct or Mar/Apr where we mix down better than expected.  Usually the BUFKIT soundings do well though with March 2010 they sure did not.  My memory is they showed no mixing down really at all

Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that 

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Will be interesting how much snow Chicago gets this week. Some models have over 30 for them between two storms 

They go snow rain snow tomorrow...I think 6...the next one I believe will miss them to the east in the end...I still lean on that thing trying to be forced a bit SE so more for DTW/TOL

I probably am being dumb by saying this because I am headed to Australia anyway for 2 weeks but all 3 ensembles basically go full blown 01-02 now D13-16 but TBH that pattern might be better than the one we are currently in...at least you have mean ridging to a degree along the W Coast or near there....we saw how the SRN US actually did see a couple of snow events in 01-02 and 11-12 in those types of patterns where you had mean ridging out west/trofing in east and it was so progressive the waves could not climb the coast

GFS/CMC going glorified FROPA 1/16-1/17 is probably exactly what we want to see at this range

4 minutes ago, jets said:

I would be concerned about very strong winds later Tuesday. Some of those numbers are a bit scary

As of now BUFKIT momentum transfers do not show it really mixes down outside of maybe 1 hour or 2...similar to that last event it may be the same ordeal where only immediate coast does it for a short window 

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible


.

I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland.  I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE.  If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin.