SnowGoose69

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Just a word from the wise. These fantasy storms are ok but as we have seen the ensembles and longe range model runs have been atrocious this season.  

Beyond D7-8 but inside of that they've tended to get the pattern theme close.  I'd feel pretty good now in the SE in that window from the 14th-20th.  It may carry past that because I believe the +PNA will hold longer than currently modeled.  We will eventually go to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER but that might not be til like the 27th or 28th despite what ensembles try to show.  

Chances are even if those MJO forecasts are correct it'll be the 27th or later til any impact on the pattern happens but it would argue February is mild in the east if a strong wave is going through 5 or 6 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles look really good

The ridge is still probably too far west on the GEFS though.  I don't think that is what happens but if it did that is not a KU or coastal setup really, its again very 93/94 like but I think if you're Philly north you take that

3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

GEPS really flexing that SE ridge. That look has some risk

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat.  I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak

It was always likely the GEFS was gonna be wrong, its been having PAC issues now the last 2 winters.  The one area I feel its been better is the NAO.  The GEPS caving to the GEFS yesterday was funny though

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This ties in with the very persistent trend of dry/drought we’ve seen since the tail end of summer, 2024 you just posted about. The most persistent dry pattern we’ve seen in this region in over 24 years. Every time it’s looked like we are going to go into a wet pattern again, it fails

fortunately with a high end weak to moderate El Nino likely next winter we should finally get out of it

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Some town in between Oswego and Syracuse is going to exceed six feet from the event going on there now. Winter storm warnings there tonight for 1-3 feet and snowfall rates 3-5 inches per hour. This is on top of 3-4 feet that has hit this area the last couple of days. 

Hannibal has 33 inches already, its only about 5 south of Oswego on a straight line

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable.  There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah jan 06 was definitely a torch 

That said I think only NYC/LGA had above normal snow and that was by like a half inch maybe, JFK was shutout or close to it.  This Dec was overall a snowier pattern, it would be quite the surprise if January ended up even like +3

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My thought was we’d be in the midst of the thaw at that point, and perhaps whatever it is that’s coming after might be better modeled.  Maybe it would take even longer than that. 

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy.  That is really the only rule I think that applies.  I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though.  Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Strange how EPS looks solid while other ens look like the last several winters redux…digging troughs into Cabo. 

I'd have tossed it in a second 3-4-5 winters ago but given the PDO decline back near neutral these past 2 winters I am inclined to trust it more on the W-Coast/Canada/AK ideas these days over the GEFS as its outperformed it there now the last 1 1/2 cold seasons

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we're likely ending up in some variant of -EPO to +PNA, either end or somewhere in between.

it's all related. but the run to run wild swings ( like the incomprehensible 00z Euro operaitonal) ...  and frankly the GFS has zip continuity across the last several cycles... etc, these are going to continue until that variant above is settled.

It is quite amazing how the last 5-6 cycles the wild shift the GEFS/GEPS have made while the EPS seemingly has not moved for 5 days.  The GEPS now moved to the GEFS idea from 1-2 days ago while the GEFS in the 8-12 day range sort of moved to what the ECAIFS/EPS was showing in that period but then immediately goes back to trying to do post D12 what it was doing yesterday beyond D8 lol

28 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

A strong El Nino December would rarely have those anomalies from ND into the Lakes, they'd normally  be above normal.  Sometimes the immediate EC can be below but El Nino Decembers, even weak to moderate ones often are not cold anywhere except the Deep South and SE and that is often just a relativity thing where a place like ATL/BNA might average -1 largely due to lots of overcast and rainy days but not exactly have a ton of days in the 40s or below or nights below 32.  An El Nino January or February can have that type of departure map though

Well the GEFS the last 2-3 runs is really moving towards the GEPS/EPS in the D8-10 period ejecting the trof/building the ridge out near the west coast.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles aren’t out yet…GEFS mostly out and they are kind of meh. 
 

OP euro decided to go cold post-1/11. 

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued.  What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

1 minute ago, bncho said:

no, I don’t buy that at all lol. The CANSIPS was honking its horn on a +PDO nino last year as well and that forecast sucked lol

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter.  The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event.  There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31.  Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

ouch

IMO it never made sense with the EPO spike which many of the individual members showed and the GEPS/GEFS had.  

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Road trip to upstate NY for some epic LES coming? Could be some prolific totals in the Fulton area.

My friend is trying to convince me to go.  We have not been back up there for snow in like 20 years.  The HREF probs show is mostly where you mention though the 12Z high res guidance models today now largely want to focus it more N of there til tomorrow which is a bit of a delay

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The -PNA is fading but so is the -NAO…Not seeing anyone pointing out the latter…

I don’t know why these phases have been in sych in recent years but it continues…

As for the CPC forecast beyond day 10, I think the +AN risk is greatest along the east coast losing the -NAO, and with the west coast ridge axis being west of Washington state…

It’s a long wave pattern where upstate  NY into northern VT can do very well, snowfall wise. The whites of NH into northern Maine as well…latitudinal Gradient vibes returning to New England. This means a poor pattern for sig snowfall chances in the major metros from Philly to Portland.

I'll take the +PNA though as it can be a harder pattern to dislodge.  My concern with a -EPO and just a neutral or slightly -PNA would be that the EPO ridge retrogrades by late month and its a raging SER in February.  Many analogs suggest that anyway but if you can establish a +1 or 2 PNA that sometimes is a much more difficult setup to just flip out of, you could probably carry this change into the first 2 weeks of February if that happened.  Otherwise we might just be seeing a 1/15-1/27 flip and that might pretty much be all after that til late February or early March. 

I still hold to 1/12-1/14 before any big change happens.  Looks more and more likely it is around that time.  

Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts

I'd still watch NYE with the FROPA, the RGEM shows what can and has happened before with those setups, a small surface low forming off the coast on the front and some areas, especially S and E portions can see accumulating snow

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree strongly. You can get an amplified storm with only the northern stream. The PNA gives you the track you need for a coastal and the NAO both prevents a cutter and slows down the flow to allow storms to amplify. 
 

what we have been missing lately is both the storm track and a blocky flow which allows storms to amplify. This pattern provides that, northern stream or not. 
 

Sure we may not get an east coast QPF bomb without some help from the STJ, but we can absolutely see a prolonged period of moderate to higher end events with this pattern. 
 

everyone on her know I have no bias when it comes to weather, I’m calling it how I see it. 

Next 5-7 days I don't see anything but something could show up after 1/4 or 1/5.  Still think 1/10 or 1/12 and after is where the major risk begins 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November 

Probably the longer it takes the +PNA to develop the less February ends up mild because it tends to be a difficult pattern to flip out of rapidly, so if it does not establish til around 1/15 I could see it being 2/10 or 2/15 before we really begin to get that setup.  In recent really mild Februarys in the La Nina years January has tended to be cold from the very beginning.  I think outside of the Lakes/NE its going to be 1/12 or so til we see the cold anomalies get down into the SE/TN Valley/Plains