SnowGoose69

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The Euro was horrific with the last event for New England. It’s back and forth here. My call is for snow showers and up to 2” of snow. I hope I’m wrong 

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years.  I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this.  But we still have a ways to go.

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms.  It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast.  Thats been a tendency now for a few years.  For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period.  Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models.  The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% correct!!

 

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

2 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum.  I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts  and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility.  In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going.  I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA.  May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. 

I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. 

Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities.  Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another.  There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they need to start making hallmark movies where it's 45 and raining on christmas

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged.  I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Still think we got another 36 hours or so til Sunday is figured out.  There continues to be a risk of anything from C-1 inch, several inches, a rainer, or a miss completely.  I am still not that sold on any major warmup, unfortunately there may be a 3-5 stretch that hits the XMas window dead on but until that WPO as Don has pointed out goes positive there is a chance that ridging isn't extended to the E Coast or the NE for more than just a brief period.  The EPO pop too on the EPS drops back towards neutral by 12/25

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How’s the AI? 

GFSAI has a storm off Nantucket at 114

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, the RGEM at 84hr looks more like the 18z ICON than 0z. The RGEM has a more pronounced shortwave over the Dakotas and the PV is further north. The 0z ICON is much more suppressive with lower heights / the PV through the Lakes.

Yeah was coming to say this.  Even the NAM was that way though at 84 the NAM is a mess anyway most times

Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land.  This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too.   I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours.  There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail 

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win.  In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right.  Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Kinda surprised the NWS hasn’t upgraded Hennepin County to a WSW. Roads are a mess and snow covered. Still 27 at the airport, I see some heavier returns moving in from the SW maybe that is the mixing line. 

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon.  Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile. 

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Alabama only got into the playoff because of their name. Take away their name, and their resume is no better than teams like Illinois or UConn. Actually, those teams beat the ACC Champion. Alabama lost to the 13th place ACC team.

If Alabama is the playoff, then let Illinois and UConn be in at as well.

They'll still likely beat OU.  Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND.  Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.  

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles.  Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the ensembles are still showing that better pattern toward Xmas. 18z today vs 24 hours ago

 

Scandi ridging retrograding as we get closer has been a theme so far this month. Also hard to torch really hard across northern tier when you have a strongly -WPO like we’ve seen. 

Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much

I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern.  When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east.  We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast.  Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails   

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December.  This month is going to end of very cold. 

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13.  Look at 162 hours today its not even close.  There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength.  We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does.  We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong