SnowGoose69

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win.  In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right.  Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Kinda surprised the NWS hasn’t upgraded Hennepin County to a WSW. Roads are a mess and snow covered. Still 27 at the airport, I see some heavier returns moving in from the SW maybe that is the mixing line. 

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon.  Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile. 

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Alabama only got into the playoff because of their name. Take away their name, and their resume is no better than teams like Illinois or UConn. Actually, those teams beat the ACC Champion. Alabama lost to the 13th place ACC team.

If Alabama is the playoff, then let Illinois and UConn be in at as well.

They'll still likely beat OU.  Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND.  Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.  

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles.  Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the ensembles are still showing that better pattern toward Xmas. 18z today vs 24 hours ago

 

Scandi ridging retrograding as we get closer has been a theme so far this month. Also hard to torch really hard across northern tier when you have a strongly -WPO like we’ve seen. 

Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much

I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern.  When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east.  We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast.  Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails   

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December.  This month is going to end of very cold. 

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13.  Look at 162 hours today its not even close.  There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength.  We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does.  We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong 

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like a lot of warm/wet cutters, then cold and dry. Very reminiscent of the 2019 winter set up.

Its just really a bunch of clippers

Just now, GaWx said:

 

In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer.

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019.  2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER.

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is incorrect.

4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time.  NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters.  There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat.  88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period.  I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

RFSS?   I’ve never looked at that one

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last  I heard the NAM may run for another year or so.  Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events.  The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels.  The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.    

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Someday the NAM will be put out to pasture.    I’m sure someone will chime in saying it is useful for something or other.   As Jeff mentioned, it is decent at finding those pesky warm tongues.  But oof. 

Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

 

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow 

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This event is 48 hours away and the euro has a foot for areas that no other model has snow for.

The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much.  But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. 

Bet snowman loves that 

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

17 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

in albany until after new years. nam just said im getting 17 inches here. 

 

love getting nam'd

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.