SnowGoose69

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Haven’t even begun to think about it yet. But I do appreciate the vapid airhead commentary as always

You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely.  That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod 

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

the big ku's almost always feature +pna.

People don't realize though that many significant snow events had a -PNA

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I want to say those are "Normalized" or re-calculated in some way.  I've seen the -1.3 mentioned by others too.  

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The BOM model takes it weakly into phase 7 before it dies out

Seems the EPS/GEFS today may have killed it more too.  I'm not sure if that is why today we've seen a trend towards less ridging in the E after D10 somewhat.  A less potent run through 6 late and 7 might result in that.

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

925 winds for the metro are 44-49kts from 03-11z or so, sustained on MOS is around 30...if this was day time I'd be worried about mixing to 900 or 875 with gusts of 50kts but I think we might be only 42-44

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I guess some people just looked at the -AO/-NAO part of Eric’s post and looked no further. He has some real ugly analog years in there….1988, 1999, 2011….

See:

Thankfully due to La Nina strength we can probably toss both 88 and 99.  I think both those years also had W QBOs and W or CNTRL based La Ninas 

Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it does get into phase 6/7. My big question is what happens when it reaches 7

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8.  I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

Cooler December, warmer February

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning.  I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have
 

 

Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

 

 

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time.  You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow.

96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns.

All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989.  I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it.  In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive.    We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

There was just a ton of bad luck.  It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89.  Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed 

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Well…. technically 96-97 was a bad winter even in Boston

I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event.  Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January.  There was just no snow or it was all inland 

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb.  The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen.  It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern.  If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 2017 is the only exception, with the historic cold 2nd half of December/first half of January. We stayed overnight (might have been 2 nights) at AC for my sister's 25th birthday, and it was way too cold to go on the Boardwalk. That year, we didn't get the warm-up until mid-January, and we all know about that record warmth in February. Then, of course, the cold/snowy pattern came back for March and April.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April 

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though.  It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

Where is the eye in relation to this Reuters live feed at this point?

 

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye.   Conditions seemed to have improved a bit 

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Ramped up even more since this message, that utility pole in the distance is really swaying now. 

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Intense based on this webcam from Treasure beach.

 

 

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I hope someone (Josh) can get some photos in that eye. I can’t even imagine what it must be like going from the most violent weather on Earth to sunny calm then back to Armageddon. 

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not