SnowGoose69

Jacksonville FL 33/30 now, going to see alot of FZRA maybe 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. It’s been mainly ZR for the last hour here after mainly sleet for a couple of hours. That tells me 850s are probably at least ~+3C due to a stubborn warmer area that some models had.

2. 1.1” officially at KATL (overperformed).

Thats another daily record beating 0.8 from 1983

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I went to FL, it would not be for winter, and it would not be in the panhandle. Not exactly a warm place in January.

My mom wanted to retire to Jacksonville I told her yeah that won't work, you need to be Tampa to Melbourne line south really to be consistently warm with only some cold nights

Somewhere from ABY in GA down to the FL border is going to see crazy snow totals, maybe 7-8 inches.  Looks like once you head over to VLD it'll be a mix

Ensembles and for example 18Z GFS show a pattern that is potentially very clipper favorable, we might finally see one impact the area in the next 2 weeks 

The frontogenesis models showed 30-40 miles south of ATL as often happens verified about that distance north which is why that corridor had a period of moderate snow and so far Macon and other locations were light, probably had some subsidence

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

Airport camera in ATL looks like VIS is down to 2-3 miles 

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, I stand corrected. Looks like some snow will occur, interesting that the GFS has 1.4 while the HRRR a trace. A dusting seems like the most likely outcome. 

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less.  The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

Euro .08 liquid still for ATL, for those in FFC .12 shows snow 19-00Z.  Radar about to close up the virga hole so might begin very soon.  MGM interestingly is struggling so far, sometimes in these setups dry air aloft can push harder into AL/MS than GA 

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

As I thought the dry air is preventing any snow from reaching the ground, looking at the radar would not be surprised if we get nary a flake.

Looking at the virga circle closing up and the radar overall I do think steady snow will fall from I-20 south.  could see the line setting up slightly north, still probably 90 more minutes til anything falls

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera

https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

MSY  211700 METAR 211653Z 01015G24KT 1/8SM PSN FZFG VV007 M03/M03 A3055 RMK        AO2 PK WND 36026/1636 SLP349 SNINCR 2/3 P0004 T10281033 RVRNO

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you have a good feel for about when S of I-20 would likely get their up to 1/2”?

I'd say 2-6pm

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I still think it will snow, I was just saying what TWC said.  @SnowGoose69 what are your thoughts on ATL?

I really doubt much happens N of I-20.  I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

Can't stop laughing at this.  I guess they never had to use a SNINCR remark before.  Don't believe IAH will have beaten the record for Houston, not sure HOU is considered official site or not

211500 METAR 211453Z COR 01012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A3066 RMK        AO2 SLP387 60006 SNOW ON GROUND 3 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATED        PRECIP.27 T10281039 53025

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

It is not hitting the ground, at least not where I am.  I did see FFC changed the advisory for Metro ATL up to 2 inches of snow, and the WSW just south of ATL now says up to 5 inches.

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense 

28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

The soundings from the 12Z NAM at 18Z tomorrow near your location to me are not ones that are going to make it that hard for snow to reach the ground.  At 18Z its saturated above 6K and mostly the 3-5K layer is the driest, but not THAT dry.   I've seen much worse soundings which scream VIRGA than that

31 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours.  It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point

32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral.

It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years.  92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters.  

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Seems a little conservative, thinking a little more on totals on the south side of the map. Maybe they are thinking some mixing.

Agreed.  I'm also confused with the WWA for the northern counties yet the verbiage in the WWA says 1-2 inches, I believe in the south region of the NWS 2 inches is supposed to be a Winter Storm Warning.

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I am considering a snow chase tomorrow heading south out of ATL.  Do you think anywhere in south central Georgia sees 4inches+ of snow?

I would go to somewhere in that Perry-Cordele corridor looking at the map down I-75.  I think in that area you could see it or somewhere nearby 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft. 

I think it is for many.  Its undoubtedly a very overpowered aircraft but I've not heard many pilots say they don't like it over the years.

Just now, jm1220 said:

Pathetic. Wonder how many Gulf coast cities will have more for the season than Central Park in 24-48 hours? Not enough for Memphis and Little Rock of course. Nice event generally and we take, but snow wise this is still one of our lamest winters. 

Baton Rouge maybe, not sure anyone else does, I think there will be alot of 2s-3s because of sleet in most other stations.  Montgomery/Augusta/Columbus are ones to watch maybe too.  New Orleans/Charleston/Mobile/Pensacola will mix as will houston

2 hours ago, hooralph said:

Do you live in Manhattan? 
 

I’m about a mile from the CPK station and I couldn’t measure 2” last night anywhere.  I would have guessed more like 1.8” but it’s not some criminal under measurement.

Still enough to create a winter wonderland with the cold.

Yup.  I got 1.8 or so on average, they were pretty close.  EWR got a bit more than NYC because they snowed for awhile late afternoon while we were dry slotting as well as LGA/JFK.  In the evening the heavier bands in the 7-9pm window slid just ESE of NYC hitting LGA/JFK.  JFK I think melted more as they took longer to get to 32 than LGA did.