SnowGoose69

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb.  The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen.  It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern.  If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 2017 is the only exception, with the historic cold 2nd half of December/first half of January. We stayed overnight (might have been 2 nights) at AC for my sister's 25th birthday, and it was way too cold to go on the Boardwalk. That year, we didn't get the warm-up until mid-January, and we all know about that record warmth in February. Then, of course, the cold/snowy pattern came back for March and April.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April 

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though.  It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

Where is the eye in relation to this Reuters live feed at this point?

 

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye.   Conditions seemed to have improved a bit 

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Ramped up even more since this message, that utility pole in the distance is really swaying now. 

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Intense based on this webcam from Treasure beach.

 

 

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I hope someone (Josh) can get some photos in that eye. I can’t even imagine what it must be like going from the most violent weather on Earth to sunny calm then back to Armageddon. 

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

12Z HAFS-A keeps Melissa basically steady state until a 907mb 16z landfall just west of Treasure Beach. HAFS-B has 901 mb landfall a bit tad further west about 13z

Bad tracks not just for the population but those both hit resort areas hard.  Most of them are on the western 1/4 of the island so thats a loss of a big portion of their economy for this winter probably

Watch the next 2 weeks.  GEFS pulling the Ole 21-22/22-23/23-24 thing D12 plus right now where it says nahhh you don't to the GEPS/EPS regarding the Pacific.  It did that at times last winter too but due to the poleward AK ridge it was wrong almost every if not every time.  This could give us some idea where this winter is going, at least early if the GEPS/EPS end up winning this one if it remains a persistent difference in the models the next few days.  I will say that over the last 10 days or so all of the ensembles have somewhat lost the battle as we are definitely still much more GOA/AK vortex heavy than we were on their forecasts back 10 days ago, so they certainly rushed the change.

On 10/24/2025 at 10:13 AM, snowman19 said:

The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge

@donsutherland1

Didn't we have a massive NF warm pool in Nov/Dec 2000 though?  I think that its more the lack of a 50/50 low for some reason that we keep seeing that.  We saw it less often last winter however when we had the -NAO because that vortex was there to prevent it from happening.  

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Absolutely anemic looking snow growth in Canada, especially eastern Canada. Not what you want to see right now.

Thats not too surprising given the recent combo of a strong west based -NAO and AK vortex flooding W Canada with mild air.  This pattern this month as far as Pac/ATL is about as close to December 2001 or 2012 as you can get.

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter
 

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out.  The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correlations with teleconnections e.g., the PNA, provide one perspective in addressing questions e.g., will it snow? But to get a better understanding, one needs to look more deeply. For example, the spread of PNA values for snow events can result in a low correlation. However, if one categorizes events by PNA- or PNA+, one can get distinctive differences in the frequency of events e.g., just over two-thirds of New York City's measurable snow events during winter occur when the PNA is positive.

Here's daily snowfall and PNA data for New York City's Central Park:

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events.  Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.  

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT

The NAO thing does not seem to hold much weight in the last 30 years.  We have had quite a few very negative Octobers and most of those winters ended up +, obviously most winters have been + so many positive Octobers had positive NAO winters too.  The most positive thing so far continues to be the NATL SST anomalies

3km NAM looks to be only 12 or 06Z run that has any idea based on current radar but even it looks like it may not be aggressive enough with the NW push today

14 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Because of the forecast on October 26?

I do believe there is some correlation historically to that feature being there in mid October to the winter though its better to see it now than on 11/30.  In 1993 I think it was basically there the entire period from about 10/15-12/15 before the pattern totally flipped

This forum would be in meltdown mode right now if the 00 EPS/GEFS pattern in the GOA/AK was being shown in December or January

On 9/11/2025 at 10:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early.  Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter.  Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter.  Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

This activity might ultimately be going off a bit too early, may result in less convection in the end.  I still see no LTG strikes over NJ thus far or maybe just 1-2

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Thoughts for Suffolk south shore, mostly dry or strong chance it'll get wet? If it gets wet is that ^^ 2pm about right or will it be earlier?

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area.  There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.