SnowGoose69

Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA.  I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north

The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

These events always are this way.  The post MetLife stadium Super Bowl storm in 2014 I think was mid or high 40s before and I know the April event maybe 5-6 years ago was too  

The Euro just totally owned every model on the storm up here for tomorrow so just keep hoping its run continues down your way on this one.  Oddly enough the RGEM/CMC agrees with it for this storm though and that was the model that just got beat the worst up here for tomorrow

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not giving it any credence but what happened to the ICON lol

The ICON does wacky stuff once you're inside like 72.  I use it sometimes to get a sense of where other models are at from 72-144 or so and it can outperform the GFS/CMC on the end result there often but close in it can be all over.

I thought the NWS having watches out back into PA and parts of NY yesterday was gutsy based off more or less only 1 model or 2.  The BGM/ALY headlines look okay now to me as far as advisory/warning but SCE and Mt Holly may be a bit generous for sure on some counties in warnings

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts.  I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.  

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night.

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember this-- it was supposed to change to rain here but it never did, just drizzle at the end, 7 inches of snow at JFK? For some reason that number sounds about right.

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A.  By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060.  It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit.  The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped.  Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

any maps or data ?

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2025011812&map=thbCOOP72

Lots of 5-7s just inland, this one has more a surface reflection vs an anafrontal appearance so totals may be bigger.  

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0202.php

Just now, LibertyBell said:

How long did it snow for? I love daytime snowstorms.

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that.  JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1987

Yeah, we wish.  2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Saquon was a Giant and they blew it.  Go Birds!  I think the vast majority of us will enjoy this system.

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I looked up Cordele, which looks like it is ~20 miles to the west of Rochelle, because they have good snow records back 90 years. Here are the only measurable snows there:

2/1973: 3.5”

2/2010: 1.5”

1/1935: 0.8”

12/1943: 0.5”

1/2018: 0.3”

 So, EPS is saying 90%+ chance for at least 3rd highest snow on record!

 

I guess they were too far south in January 92.   There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that.  I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them 

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

off topic but the most snow Florida has ever seen is 4 inches.. The mean for northern Florida on the EPS is 4    that's wild!   hoping all of us get some good snow out of this!

My money is that sucker is gonna tick north and it won’t happen.  But some areas near PNS have had 3-4 before like 89/93.  That storm is very similar and similar pattern to 1/27/14 which at this range was located same place and moved north gradually from there.  Pattern doesn’t look as suppressive to me as 89/73

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not a good performance from the euro. Call a spade a spade. Skynet was better though

It did well last week in the SE US event but it also was having to tick NW late for the final 24-36, it was just that the NAM was so bad most did not realize it.  It may be having the same progressive bias down there again with this next one as its been ticking N now the last 2-3 runs

35 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

what is upton doing?

 

They’re gonna go right into a winter storm warning? Kind of negates the whole reason for the watch if you hold off on issuing it.

Everything north of the Bronx should’ve been on a winter storm watch since yesterday.

I think they'll probably go advisories everywhere currently not in a watch, its possible the NJ county areas not currently in the watch and maybe SRN Westchester and SRN Fairfield could get 6 and reach warning but I would not be confident enough at the moment to have them in a warning.  Western Passaic and Western Bergen should get 6, eastern maybe not.   NYC has no bust potential on their western counties really, Mt Holly does if this comes east for sure.

1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Good grief that Canadian might be right,go Canada lol.

Its probably too early on the development of the snow shield over MS/AL.  It may be correct as far as coverage over GA/SC.  The EURO AI DID have that til the last 2-3 runs when its sort of lost it.  Its why I said yesterday if you live in BHM/BNA/HSV/TUP you might be close to out of the game on this realistically but if you live in ATL/AHN you were still alive 

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

1993 has to be the last time Tallahassee got anything close to that, right?

Didn't even get it then, climate report says a T that day, Pensacola I think had 2-3 inches.  Dec 89 and Feb 58 are only snowfalls I can find, 2.4 in 1958 1.2 in 89

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Insane consistency for a model that’s going to be dead wrong

A big reason I'm tossing it is its totally botching the ensuing event down in the Deep South.  I think either tonight or tomorrow the CMC finally caves on that one but the EURO AI now barely even gets precip into SRN AL/GA.  To me, thats a strong sign the pattern is causing the CMC/RGEM problems and its likely to be impacting this system too

The RGEM going flatter through 24-30 is a sign its moving towards everything else eventually IMO

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z NAM looks good at 84... It's not in good range , so hard to trust it 

Used to know what the NAM indicated but not anymore, up til 6-7 years ago it always had an amped bias at 72-84 so if it was not grossly NW of everything else you knew where things stood but it underwent an upgrade in 2017 I think and since then that bias is gone

The EURO AI looks about what I expect will happen here, it may come a tad north of that in the end but I stand by the idea the CMC is wrong and maybe even the GFS now is too north

37 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I’m just waiting for the NAM to come in and be like “Oh you thought this was gonna be a FL storm? Hold my beer”.

After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm

The RGEM does have a bit of an amped bias past 48 but even if you account for that it still would be well west of everything else.  You need a 100 mile shift more or less