SnowGoose69

14 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Spring leaf hasn’t even made it out of Florida yet per the USAPN

Probably the slowest advancement its had since like 2015.  It won't move much either even if they do torch down there from 1/29-2/8 or so.  After you have a month that cold it takes a good 12-14 days where you're averaging over 50 or so to really get things going.  Even less year FL/GA/MS/AL/TX went way slower in Feb than they did in 21-23 because January had that cold stretch mid month.  

6 hours ago, North and West said:

This book was more than just that. A lot of basic stories of a lot of people who couldn’t admit that someone they don’t agree with (any politician) could be right about something and that themselves could be wrong; that closing beaches didn’t actually help (sunshine, vitamin d); school closings are hindering the poorest kids for many years on out and we’ll continue to feel the impact; the people making the vaccine didn’t have malicious intent; hospitals weren’t going to accept people if the beds didn’t make money.

Just a cluster overall.


.

The bad part is when bird flu eventually jumps to go human to human which is probably within the next 10 years or so we'll probably have a ton of people who just ignore it.  The good news is I saw a fairly good program on TV a few weeks back that projects it likely won't be as deadly as COVID was, likely somewhere midway between the severity of the 2009 and 1919 outbreaks but its believed that since influenza causes bacterial vs viral pneumonia it'll be easier to control the secondary impacts.  COVID causing viral pneumonia is really what was most problematic.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !

The one thing I will say is this winter the GEFS amplitude has tended to be a bit too strong so it might end up between the two

I might lean more towards the GEFS right now given its handled the MJO better.  the GEPS/EPS probably are getting colder faster since they are not pushing it through 4-5-6

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes, especially important in the winter with low sunlight levels.  My sister's doctor prescribed her Vitamin D to boost her immune system which was impacted by taking prednisone to combat lupus.

 

Some doctors believe it still does not work quite as well from getting it naturally from the sun but its actually harder to obtain it that way than we realize.  Your body sometimes won't absorb it fully if you shower quickly after being out and also you sort of need to be in a bathing suit, shorts/t-shirt won't exactly expose enough of your skin

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hospitals did a patient survey around the NYC area during the pandemic and the result was that obesity, diabetes and asthma were the most important indicators of who suffered a bad outcome from covid.

So the most important indicators are diet, sleep and level of air pollution.

 

Low vitamin D too.  I got extraordinarily sick the first time I got covid.  Began taking vitamin D supplement thereafter and have good levels on my yearly blood test, before that I was in the 20s.  Have had Covid 3 more times since and just two colds, all were very minor.  Vitamin D won't stop you from getting sick but it tends to limit the severity of the infections if you're levels are up in the 50s or higher.

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

The last thing the nfl wants to see is Philly vs KC

It will be insufferable. Too much money lost if redskins and bills don’t make it.

Hopefully the nfl Gerald Riggs it for the redskins

I think KC is getting their drawers blown off in this game unless Allen turns into prime January Philip Rivers out of nowhere.  I think KC -1.5 is about the biggest gift in a couple of months.  I'd be real surprised if they won this game or even were in it with 5-6 mins to go.  WSH may win too though I'd be sorta worried BUF/WSH would be like LA/SD from 1994.  Don't think this team is quite ready yet to hang with an offense that good in a game that big.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it really curious that we got below zero in February 2016, during a much warmer climate regime (a super el nino no less), while we could not do it in January 2004, which was a much colder climate regime, and two nights in a row we stopped at +1.

The core of the airmass in 04 missed us to the NE over New England and it was simply way too windy that night so we were probably mixing too much.  Ideally winds gusting 20-25kts tend to be ideal for NYC to go below 0 but it was well into the 30s that night

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder why this crap is happening now, 10 years ago we never heard of RSV.

RSV tends to have outbreaks impacting adults every 4-6 years or so.  In general we have immunity to it that lasts several years whereas children usually get very sick from it the first time around.  I think when the strain alters enough that the immunity wears off we have outbreaks like this winter.  I recall in 17/18 there was an outbreak impacting people middle aged and up.  I definitely had it 2-3 weeks ago following like 4 people I work with having it.  No runny nose or sneezing and no fever just a horrid sore throat that became a nasty dry cough.  Usually in adults there is a pronounced lack of runny nose/sneezing vs the cold which can be a tip off thats what you have.  Doctor told me at my physical in December there has been nearly no covid or flu this winter, at least as of then on 12/15 and all he was seeing was RSV/colds.

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao

I feel as if the EPS/GEFS have been switching off on attempting this for weeks, now the 12Z GEFS today is trying it after it was the coldest in the east at D13-16 just a few days ago

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Why would that be nuts exactly? It’s happened the last two years and I don’t think that’s mere coincidence. It’s a suggestion of the type of multiyear pattern we’re in. The coastal NE cities are largely taking a break from snowfall for the time being. Would be pretty surprised if central park ends up with even one more moderate snowfall event. 

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters.  That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland 

Jacksonville FL 33/30 now, going to see alot of FZRA maybe 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. It’s been mainly ZR for the last hour here after mainly sleet for a couple of hours. That tells me 850s are probably at least ~+3C due to a stubborn warmer area that some models had.

2. 1.1” officially at KATL (overperformed).

Thats another daily record beating 0.8 from 1983

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I went to FL, it would not be for winter, and it would not be in the panhandle. Not exactly a warm place in January.

My mom wanted to retire to Jacksonville I told her yeah that won't work, you need to be Tampa to Melbourne line south really to be consistently warm with only some cold nights

Somewhere from ABY in GA down to the FL border is going to see crazy snow totals, maybe 7-8 inches.  Looks like once you head over to VLD it'll be a mix

Ensembles and for example 18Z GFS show a pattern that is potentially very clipper favorable, we might finally see one impact the area in the next 2 weeks 

The frontogenesis models showed 30-40 miles south of ATL as often happens verified about that distance north which is why that corridor had a period of moderate snow and so far Macon and other locations were light, probably had some subsidence

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

Airport camera in ATL looks like VIS is down to 2-3 miles 

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, I stand corrected. Looks like some snow will occur, interesting that the GFS has 1.4 while the HRRR a trace. A dusting seems like the most likely outcome. 

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less.  The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

Euro .08 liquid still for ATL, for those in FFC .12 shows snow 19-00Z.  Radar about to close up the virga hole so might begin very soon.  MGM interestingly is struggling so far, sometimes in these setups dry air aloft can push harder into AL/MS than GA 

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

As I thought the dry air is preventing any snow from reaching the ground, looking at the radar would not be surprised if we get nary a flake.

Looking at the virga circle closing up and the radar overall I do think steady snow will fall from I-20 south.  could see the line setting up slightly north, still probably 90 more minutes til anything falls

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera

https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

MSY  211700 METAR 211653Z 01015G24KT 1/8SM PSN FZFG VV007 M03/M03 A3055 RMK        AO2 PK WND 36026/1636 SLP349 SNINCR 2/3 P0004 T10281033 RVRNO

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you have a good feel for about when S of I-20 would likely get their up to 1/2”?

I'd say 2-6pm