SnowGoose69

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR hasn't been great this winter. Let's hope this is an event that it's right about, but obviously we should be skeptical. This is long range for the HRRR too. 

Yeah I'd definitely not use its thermals but the idea its generating so much overrunning precip relative to the Euro is good

The 18Z HRRR sure doubling down on its idea, no notable move towards the Euro.  We'll see if the NAM begins to move towards it next few cycles

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

pattern reload after that?

 

The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro continues to be very warm with very little frozen to start with this system. 

Its not tremendously different on thermals, it simply has no QPF til like 13Z

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty impressive seeing how cold MOS/NBM is for tomorrow night...even down in place like EWR/JFK. 

SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold.  I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32.

I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word.  As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison

Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.  

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW the CMC is colder and mostly sleet now as opposed to rain. Almost never gets to rain fully, mostly sleet to dry slot. 

Its very possible places from N Queens on W-NW never go to rain on this event, while there is ESE flow, its light, the event is very fast moving and short duration and there may be too much wet bulbing initially to push temps over 32 til the precip is almost over.  LGA is roughly 32/21 at the start, if they fall to 28 I really doubt an 8-10kts wind from 090-110 blowing across a large area of sleet/snow on the ground is going to get them over freezing before the event exits.   I still think there is mostly sleet though after maybe 2 hours of snow at the start.

23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Hopeing that 6z Euro was just a blip....everything else seems to be a nice thump down here, even the Long range hrrr and rap were plenty cold to start...

06/18z Euro runs the last few years have tended to do some strange stuff.  Should not be happening with today's model ingests but I've seen it more than enough times to know its a tendency at this point

The Euro seems out to lunch on this one, I am still wary of totally discounting it, maybe the 06z run was a blip but its evolution overall is just different than any other model right now.

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These setups tend to be quicker versus slower for precip. arrival so I am almost inclined to side with the NAM timing wise. 

The NAM is almost always the slowest model when it comes to start times, the fact its consistently been the earliest for the last 2 days tells me it might be right

Just now, MJO812 said:

Suppression isn't going to be an issue this time around . We don't have intense blocking modeled. 

I'm not worried too much about suppression as I am maybe storms not being able to amp up quite as much if the SER is flatter than that Op run shows 

The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.

The AI which has probably performed best on start time in many of these precip events has 07-08z for NYC.  Probably means the UKMET/GFS/Euro might be too slow right now and NAM slightly too fast.  It also has a slight wedging signature showing up.  I think NE NJ/N parts of NYC have to be wary of this event staying frozen for most of it.  We'll see what the NAM shows as it gets closer.  As of today it shows most places turning SE on winds

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yes,  I keep the door open for changes within the broad pix. And yes, I look at snow/ice probably more from a hazard view than actual perfect numbers - I ball park numbers. Too much stuff can wrong on numbers (just like the CP change this morning at 631).  

I'm guessing 1//2 to 3" heaviest case for NYC CP Wed night.  

Am offline til a short time on this eve, then back full bore tomorrow morning. 

Definitely need some sort of mesoscale help on this one to get more than a quick shot of snow, high positioning just not great though some higher res models show it could try to wedge itself in for a bit.  Its why I am nervous about LGA/EWR on north holding onto ZR or PL longer before going to all rain but the event that follows this one looks more promising though I still think its the 10th and beyond when any all snow event is likely.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

GEFS more or less moving that way, still has a ton of members going into nothing or even back into 2-3 but more today seem to be moving towards 8-1 than previous days

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW.  IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1991 is the one I remember from the early 90s I think.  We hadn't had a 6+ event in a long time and everyone was excited that we'd get a 6 inch snowstorm even though it would change to rain later.  It snowed most of the day and didn't change to rain until after it was dark, which was perfect timing, the reverse (snow at night rain during the day) would not be as nice.  Of course the following month, February 1991 I think it was, we had the 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm, so we ended the 6 inch snowless streak with a bang (and a busted forecast, as no snow was predicted, it was just supposed to be a frontal passage- and neither BOS nor PHL got snow like we did.)

On the topic of snow to rain, wasn't January 87 another heavy snow to rain storm? Maybe just at the end?

JFK east went over to rain.  LGA west I’m not sure they ever did.  Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing.  Most areas simply just dry slotted 

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over.  I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours.  We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there.  There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here.

Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.

 

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here.  While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding.  The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more.  Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5 

HUH?

LGA  030000 METAR 022351Z 04007KT 6SM -RASN OVC030 M02/M04 A3033 RMK AO2 RAB50SNB48 SLP270 P0000 60000 T1017107211011 21028 56026 
 

18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not necessarily. The SE ridge will keep fighting back as it does in Nina Febs. 

I think the SE ridge is gonna be pretty much toasted after 2/15, but I don't fear suppression really as of now.  I think likely lack of a strong -NAO should prevent that

I had said days ago don't buy into the 8th setup, even the 6th will be all rain at the coast probably because the high position is bad.  The 8th has a chance of starting as something frozen but more likely PL or FZRA.  Thereafter is where snow is more likely but still probably more of a classic SWFE where it goes snow to rain

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This forum opened in November 2010 - a little over 14 years ago and wasn't the old forum called Eastern Weather ? Many of us were members there .Can't remember why that forum closed and this one was created - a history lesson please ?

My recollection whoever ran the server did not pay the bill and it just died for like 1-2 weeks then all of a sudden a notice came that the new site was coming.

GFS probably out to lunch on Wednesday, I am still not sold on the 8th-9th either, I think it may be after that where the threats start.  At least as far as snow