SnowGoose69

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I still think it will snow, I was just saying what TWC said.  @SnowGoose69 what are your thoughts on ATL?

I really doubt much happens N of I-20.  I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

Can't stop laughing at this.  I guess they never had to use a SNINCR remark before.  Don't believe IAH will have beaten the record for Houston, not sure HOU is considered official site or not

211500 METAR 211453Z COR 01012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A3066 RMK        AO2 SLP387 60006 SNOW ON GROUND 3 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATED        PRECIP.27 T10281039 53025

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

It is not hitting the ground, at least not where I am.  I did see FFC changed the advisory for Metro ATL up to 2 inches of snow, and the WSW just south of ATL now says up to 5 inches.

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense 

28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

The soundings from the 12Z NAM at 18Z tomorrow near your location to me are not ones that are going to make it that hard for snow to reach the ground.  At 18Z its saturated above 6K and mostly the 3-5K layer is the driest, but not THAT dry.   I've seen much worse soundings which scream VIRGA than that

31 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours.  It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point

32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral.

It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years.  92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters.  

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Seems a little conservative, thinking a little more on totals on the south side of the map. Maybe they are thinking some mixing.

Agreed.  I'm also confused with the WWA for the northern counties yet the verbiage in the WWA says 1-2 inches, I believe in the south region of the NWS 2 inches is supposed to be a Winter Storm Warning.

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I am considering a snow chase tomorrow heading south out of ATL.  Do you think anywhere in south central Georgia sees 4inches+ of snow?

I would go to somewhere in that Perry-Cordele corridor looking at the map down I-75.  I think in that area you could see it or somewhere nearby 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft. 

I think it is for many.  Its undoubtedly a very overpowered aircraft but I've not heard many pilots say they don't like it over the years.

Just now, jm1220 said:

Pathetic. Wonder how many Gulf coast cities will have more for the season than Central Park in 24-48 hours? Not enough for Memphis and Little Rock of course. Nice event generally and we take, but snow wise this is still one of our lamest winters. 

Baton Rouge maybe, not sure anyone else does, I think there will be alot of 2s-3s because of sleet in most other stations.  Montgomery/Augusta/Columbus are ones to watch maybe too.  New Orleans/Charleston/Mobile/Pensacola will mix as will houston

2 hours ago, hooralph said:

Do you live in Manhattan? 
 

I’m about a mile from the CPK station and I couldn’t measure 2” last night anywhere.  I would have guessed more like 1.8” but it’s not some criminal under measurement.

Still enough to create a winter wonderland with the cold.

Yup.  I got 1.8 or so on average, they were pretty close.  EWR got a bit more than NYC because they snowed for awhile late afternoon while we were dry slotting as well as LGA/JFK.  In the evening the heavier bands in the 7-9pm window slid just ESE of NYC hitting LGA/JFK.  JFK I think melted more as they took longer to get to 32 than LGA did.

The GRAF has come back south somewhat now, showing less wacky totals for ATL than it had been.  I think dsaur/deltapilot/suzook are sitting in a way better spot than ATL downtown or even the airport.  could see a case where they see 1-1.5 inches if this bumps somewhat north and downtown ATL sees flurries or nothing.  In SC I think I'd pick 30-40 miles NW of CHS for prime spot.  CHS obviously risk of sleet.

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 96-97 and 11 12 El ninos? I believe each had the Gulf of Alaska trough which flooded Canada.

No both were weak La Ninas to neutral cold.  96-97 had a great AO/NAO combo in Dec much like 2012 did but nothing happened outside of interior parts of SNE and Upstate NY.  Then we went cold and dry in January and torch in February.  It was more of a bad luck winter than anything else, some places south of here had well above normal snowfall.  11-12 and 01-02 were similar as far as their proximity to a solar max and a neutral after a Nina

Looks increasingly likely we will be neutral or weak La Nina again next winter.  Historically that has not generally been good near solar maxes, I think this winter we benefited somewhat coming off the El Nino as we did in 2010-2011.  I am definitely fearing 96-97 01-02 11-12 somewhat next winter if we continue to see a move towards La Nina or cold neutral

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The coastal areas of LA and MS still look good.

The spots I'd most want to be in are probably a BTR-Hattiesburg to maybe 40 miles south of MGM-CSG-MCN corridor...south of that might be mixing

4 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. 

Don't think you'll see a big change really, this is simply the models catching onto what the Euro has been showing, the WAA finger of snow over GA/SC/AL was being badly underdone but I'd expect it does not climb much further north than this.

19 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

So whats the fv3 high res? Decent/accurate mesos? It looks better than most. I feel like years ago there was a gfs fv3.  Been MIA from the hobby for a while 

It did well with the last SE storm, I know that.  Its awful with convection though.  I had been ignoring it since it was so bad last summer.

Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution  of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow

3-5 seems common everywhere.  Based on the 7pm official station obs though I am not sure any reach 3 other than EWR.  LGA maybe will be 2.7 or so

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Any Central Park measurements

 

Won’t be til 1am probbaly but I’d guess it’s between 2-3 

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

They failed miserably for the interior. GFS wasn’t too bad but overall in terms of amounts for our area, Canadians won 

Canadian sort of got it right for the wrong reason.  The low didn’t track anywhere near that far west  

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i am in manhattan did not hear any thunder..

You gotta be close to it.  Christmas 02 I was 3 miles maybe on a straight line form LGA and heard numerous claps of thunder but the airport never reported it.  Its usually only audible due to the snow absorbing the sound and the lightning sometimes being obscured form nearby 

6 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Are there any reliable models that still show any snow in ATL?   If not I will drive south to Macon or may need to go further south to Tifton or Albany?  

The Euro has consistently shown the warm advection band reaching them.  Otherwise just the high res GFS did today.  RGEM was close but just south

EWR has 2 on the ground, LGA/JFK have nothing as of the 00Z METAR.  This may be an event where NYC reports way more than LGA/JFK do due to temps being cooler in the park 

Meanwhile neither JFK/LGA reported TSSN, shows you how you have to be very close to where its occurring to hear it