SnowGoose69

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

Ouch with the EURO. Inch and a half of ice in the ATL area. Ooof. 

Soundings show it may be more sleet.  There's a sub freezing layer from 875mb and below which often is deep enough

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is also further north 

The Op would be IMO a bit suppressed but what this system could do too is turn the corner late.  So we may see a move in the next 2-3 days towards the system being further south back in the WRN TN Valley/Deep South/Plains but still making the move more up the coast.  Just later on than the CMC shows for example

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sleet is always under-modeled. The closer you get to the all snow line the more snow/sleet I think you’d see and less freezing rain.

Correct.  Especially in the wedge.  This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec

Be careful with the EUROAI post 120, from about there inside its been good.  Beyond that less so.  I still like an idea as of now slightly north of the Op Euro idea.  

17 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!

The UKMET having rain in NE GA in that setup is funny

Its still too far out but right now something between the UKMET and CMC would be my guess.  I'd rather be here than Boston or Albany right now, thats for sure.  I think the CMC may overall be a bit north of what eventually happens

The 18Z  Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Has a lot of it melted away already? I read someone else said the Macon camera showed it “gone”, but I didn’t know exactly what he meant. That seemed awfully fast if it did.

As SE Alabama clears on satellite you can see it melts fairly fast

Its quite strange seeing those areas get snow in La Nina winters...its almost always limited to just El Nino years.  ATL for example saw no measurable snow in 95-96

RhodyRick was my favorite poster on Eastern, he would just troll saying every storm would be rain

All models now basically showing lite versions of 12/2003 and 1/2011.  We need to hope round 1 does as well as it did in both those storms.  Hint...it won't 

Don’t underrate the impact this accumulation may have on tomorrow.  At least in areas that got snow today.  It could definitely keep things 1-2 degrees cooler overnight which can be a factor tomorrow in a setup like this 

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What's the betting line on how much Central Park will measure today?

Given they probably will measure at 1pm a half inch or slightly over.

Its accumulating on the grass now in Central Park

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mentioned a couple of weeks ago I could see February starting with a bang like 2021.

Still looks concerning that W Canada may get wiped out again by the EPO shift though I think its just a brief one but despite the end of ensembles showing a +PNA look again its pretty mild since Canada gets torched the last few days of the month by that transitional period.  Could be 2/5 or 2/7 before we see things be cold enough and I am just not sure how much longer thereafter we can hold this pattern.  Its logically going to go Nina February at some stage.  I felt by 2/10 but maybe its later.

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Seeing temps in mid 30s tomorrow for LI . Anyone else concerned with temps?

Yeah, no high to the north as I said.  I don't really love this setup but I do think that the air mass might be just cold enough that we get accumulation.  I'd just go lower than snow maps though.  I don't think anyone is seeing 5 or 6 inches.

GFS is likely too amped with the storm idea.  I am more worried about suppression problems overall than being too far north

By far the Euro idea for today is working out the best right now.  Most of the mesos were just way too far west with this snow.  The RGEM was fairly good too.  

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

With everybody's temperature observations this morning, I was expecting to see, at best, a light mix of rain and snow.  Instead, central Union county NJ is snowing light to moderately at the moment (woke up with a light sprinking of powdered sugar on the ground).  As far as tomorrow's event, I can't remember a coastal ever "clipping" NYC.  It seems it is always a hit or a complete miss, so I'm expecting nothing...

Not nearly the same setup but reminded me of this one below.  2/8/97.  I was watching Mark Messier blow the Islanders up in an afternoon game.  Was like 32-34 all day.  NYC got around 3 inches in the end but it was basically a clipped coastal type setup.  Nowhere near the same type of storm as this though.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1997/us0209.php

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, the last time the west was record warm (in 2014-15), at least there was an easy explanation: It was a strong +PDO winter, with a warm neutral/weak el nino. Easy to see in that configuration why you would get a record warm west and a well below average east.

With the current configuration (-PDO/-ENSO/-IOD), there really is no reason why the west should be breaking their 14-15 records. You're not going to get anywhere near record cold in the east (like we did in 14-15) with that configuration.

Yeah makes no sense at all for the west to be torching like this in this type of winter.  But as we have said in here we've seen the east torch in El Nino setups recently in oddball configurations.  Dec 2015 was one, that was likely more due to the MJO being record strength in phase 5 or 6 though.

It looks like what happens on the ensembles today is you briefly get a +EPO but it immediately tries to return back to a +PNA pattern again, you'd torch Canada so would take a week or so for it to get colder again 

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i can't find that anymore, isn't it discontinued?

No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 

I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved.

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if my JUNO theory is correct, GFS makes a hard western move tonight and so does the Euro!

I think the areas where a big NW move may happen are way down south in like GA/SC.  And I am not even sure I'd call it a NW move, its more the H5 has argued the QPF is being underdone on the NW edge down there which is why at times the RRFS and some other models have shown snow back to like ATL/GSP.  I don't really see big changes likely up the coast.

No high in SE Canada is still a big issue here as I said a few days ago.