SnowGoose69

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hospitals did a patient survey around the NYC area during the pandemic and the result was that obesity, diabetes and asthma were the most important indicators of who suffered a bad outcome from covid.

So the most important indicators are diet, sleep and level of air pollution.

 

Low vitamin D too.  I got extraordinarily sick the first time I got covid.  Began taking vitamin D supplement thereafter and have good levels on my yearly blood test, before that I was in the 20s.  Have had Covid 3 more times since and just two colds, all were very minor.  Vitamin D won't stop you from getting sick but it tends to limit the severity of the infections if you're levels are up in the 50s or higher.

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

The last thing the nfl wants to see is Philly vs KC

It will be insufferable. Too much money lost if redskins and bills don’t make it.

Hopefully the nfl Gerald Riggs it for the redskins

I think KC is getting their drawers blown off in this game unless Allen turns into prime January Philip Rivers out of nowhere.  I think KC -1.5 is about the biggest gift in a couple of months.  I'd be real surprised if they won this game or even were in it with 5-6 mins to go.  WSH may win too though I'd be sorta worried BUF/WSH would be like LA/SD from 1994.  Don't think this team is quite ready yet to hang with an offense that good in a game that big.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it really curious that we got below zero in February 2016, during a much warmer climate regime (a super el nino no less), while we could not do it in January 2004, which was a much colder climate regime, and two nights in a row we stopped at +1.

The core of the airmass in 04 missed us to the NE over New England and it was simply way too windy that night so we were probably mixing too much.  Ideally winds gusting 20-25kts tend to be ideal for NYC to go below 0 but it was well into the 30s that night

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder why this crap is happening now, 10 years ago we never heard of RSV.

RSV tends to have outbreaks impacting adults every 4-6 years or so.  In general we have immunity to it that lasts several years whereas children usually get very sick from it the first time around.  I think when the strain alters enough that the immunity wears off we have outbreaks like this winter.  I recall in 17/18 there was an outbreak impacting people middle aged and up.  I definitely had it 2-3 weeks ago following like 4 people I work with having it.  No runny nose or sneezing and no fever just a horrid sore throat that became a nasty dry cough.  Usually in adults there is a pronounced lack of runny nose/sneezing vs the cold which can be a tip off thats what you have.  Doctor told me at my physical in December there has been nearly no covid or flu this winter, at least as of then on 12/15 and all he was seeing was RSV/colds.

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao

I feel as if the EPS/GEFS have been switching off on attempting this for weeks, now the 12Z GEFS today is trying it after it was the coldest in the east at D13-16 just a few days ago

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Why would that be nuts exactly? It’s happened the last two years and I don’t think that’s mere coincidence. It’s a suggestion of the type of multiyear pattern we’re in. The coastal NE cities are largely taking a break from snowfall for the time being. Would be pretty surprised if central park ends up with even one more moderate snowfall event. 

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters.  That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland 

Jacksonville FL 33/30 now, going to see alot of FZRA maybe 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. It’s been mainly ZR for the last hour here after mainly sleet for a couple of hours. That tells me 850s are probably at least ~+3C due to a stubborn warmer area that some models had.

2. 1.1” officially at KATL (overperformed).

Thats another daily record beating 0.8 from 1983

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I went to FL, it would not be for winter, and it would not be in the panhandle. Not exactly a warm place in January.

My mom wanted to retire to Jacksonville I told her yeah that won't work, you need to be Tampa to Melbourne line south really to be consistently warm with only some cold nights

Somewhere from ABY in GA down to the FL border is going to see crazy snow totals, maybe 7-8 inches.  Looks like once you head over to VLD it'll be a mix

Ensembles and for example 18Z GFS show a pattern that is potentially very clipper favorable, we might finally see one impact the area in the next 2 weeks 

The frontogenesis models showed 30-40 miles south of ATL as often happens verified about that distance north which is why that corridor had a period of moderate snow and so far Macon and other locations were light, probably had some subsidence

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

Airport camera in ATL looks like VIS is down to 2-3 miles 

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, I stand corrected. Looks like some snow will occur, interesting that the GFS has 1.4 while the HRRR a trace. A dusting seems like the most likely outcome. 

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less.  The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

Euro .08 liquid still for ATL, for those in FFC .12 shows snow 19-00Z.  Radar about to close up the virga hole so might begin very soon.  MGM interestingly is struggling so far, sometimes in these setups dry air aloft can push harder into AL/MS than GA 

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

As I thought the dry air is preventing any snow from reaching the ground, looking at the radar would not be surprised if we get nary a flake.

Looking at the virga circle closing up and the radar overall I do think steady snow will fall from I-20 south.  could see the line setting up slightly north, still probably 90 more minutes til anything falls

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera

https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

MSY  211700 METAR 211653Z 01015G24KT 1/8SM PSN FZFG VV007 M03/M03 A3055 RMK        AO2 PK WND 36026/1636 SLP349 SNINCR 2/3 P0004 T10281033 RVRNO

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you have a good feel for about when S of I-20 would likely get their up to 1/2”?

I'd say 2-6pm

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I still think it will snow, I was just saying what TWC said.  @SnowGoose69 what are your thoughts on ATL?

I really doubt much happens N of I-20.  I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

Can't stop laughing at this.  I guess they never had to use a SNINCR remark before.  Don't believe IAH will have beaten the record for Houston, not sure HOU is considered official site or not

211500 METAR 211453Z COR 01012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A3066 RMK        AO2 SLP387 60006 SNOW ON GROUND 3 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATED        PRECIP.27 T10281039 53025

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

It is not hitting the ground, at least not where I am.  I did see FFC changed the advisory for Metro ATL up to 2 inches of snow, and the WSW just south of ATL now says up to 5 inches.

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense 

28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

The soundings from the 12Z NAM at 18Z tomorrow near your location to me are not ones that are going to make it that hard for snow to reach the ground.  At 18Z its saturated above 6K and mostly the 3-5K layer is the driest, but not THAT dry.   I've seen much worse soundings which scream VIRGA than that

31 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours.  It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point