SnowGoose69

Currently forecasting for BOS airport I said it could be nothing but showers by time it gets there, even without a sea breeze.

a few lightning strikes did show up 10-15 minutes ago near Teterboro

The Euro was correct on coverage by 21z.  I am not sure it'll be correct about how quickly this presses east though

Euro is still fairly aggressive.  Has storm initiation now from 20-2030Z from NE NJ back towards Trenton

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The storm threat drops East of the Hudson however I like today's threat for Northern/Central NJ extending into the LHV, especially if we can get some clearing. 

I think 21-23Z is the chance for any "real" activity.  Its possible the 00-03Z period could have alot of elevated activity, even as far east as Queens/WRN LI but I always am reluctant at this time of year to even count on that due to the water temps

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nams are well west with the heaviest rains. Only models really showing this

The HRRR sort of is too.  The one thing most models agree on is the TSTMs 21-23Z over NRN-CNTRL NJ.  The Euro idea though of steady rain by 2330-00Z from NYC and east is probably more likely than the HRRR/NAM holding that area back til 02-03Z

KBLM 292323Z AUTO 04021KT 8SM OVC095 09/07 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 05026/2310 WSHFT 2303 PRESRR KBLM 292256Z AUTO 23004KT 10SM FEW095 25/08 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP161 T02500083

Its currently 82 in far SW Brooklyn and 60 just a few miles north

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is living up to its potential, sadly. 

Overall pretty close, they got the high risk area almost exactly correct. The north end of the high risk in AL looks like it won't verify, does appear they trimmed it back slightly on this latest update.

For the time being I believe a federal judge has stopped this, unless I am misunderstanding.  If true I guess these employees would all be reinstated for the time being and have to hope that in the time it takes for this to go to the SC they can be convinced that cutting from this sector is not smart.  It would almost certainly be upheld there but they'd have a few months probably to prove their case they should not go ahead with it

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Did this actually occur today or is this from another day?

2. What is the meaning of “probationary” federal employees?

3. What does “at NOAA’s EMC responsible for keeping all US weather model systems running” mean specifically? Does this mean instead of humans operating the computers that the models would just run automatically? If so, is it possible that that would be a legit way to increase efficiency without decreasing what NOAA provides to the public?

I think anyone with 365 days or less since their hire date is probationary.  So this will have a totally unbalanced impact because some WFOs probably have 0 people with that status and some probably have 2 or even 3 in rare cases so that impacts them very differently.  I actually personally know 4 people who got terminated during their probationary period in the NWS since 1992.  One for just being the hostile person they were and still are, a second for breaking vital equipment, one for entering the office during off hours intoxicated (they mistakenly told the taxi that was their house), the other for being just awful at the job and having some personal issues with mental health (they should never have been let go and gotten the help they likely needed).

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. The model depicted PAC pattern isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

It can be easier to get something in March that might miss to the east in Dec/Jan/Feb.  My memory is the April 82 storm did not have a very favorable pattern and probably would have missed to the east in winter due to things being progressive.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days

god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year

Still looking like another weak or even chance of a borderline moderate Nina at the moment.  The QBO may be more favorable next winter though

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Are we really still doing this? I admire the perseverance, but sometimes you just have to let it go. 

This close in I don't like using ensembles anyway, the cut off to me on those is 84, once to 72 I often won't even look

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's what you say when the model isn't showing what you want it to show

JB is sorta right, PSU echoed this in the MA forum that even if you looked at the CIPS analogs, many show the 500 setup from like Chicago to the Delmarva being one where we had storms that were so far west the coast changed over.  Its likely just a case here thats an extremely rare circumstance where a couple of things being slightly off are leading to an atypical result given the setup.  Or the NAM is gonna pull another January 2016 on us...

I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now.  obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further.  I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday

As of 4pm it was LGA 0.3 JFK and EWR 0.4 NYC T

2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

They will. Its snowing pretty gd in the city rn..id say they get a inch or so..  edit: puking snow now.

Should be between 0.5-1.0, I'd say its like 0.4 so far

Yeah the 18Z ICON was like a Nemo redux, saved by a late capture but realistically that is a worse trend from the prior run

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Curious how the 12z Euro AI looked, is it out yet?

It was east

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern supports more of the same, this is another DC storm 

I think its a miss for DC if it misses the rest of the coast, orientation and everything to me argues if its not an across the board big city hit its more or less a miss outside of the Delmarva/SE NJ/Cape and Islands

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year. 

Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one.  I suspect this hits all the big cities or none.  Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs.

Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps.  Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior.  At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far

2 minutes ago, jimbo073 said:

What time is estimated start time for union county?

2-3pm

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong

It did not do too well with this last event, it was way south til the final day.  I've not followed it much beyond 96, its been good inside of that but not so much beyond