SnowGoose69

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z NAM12km, NAM3km, FV3 and RGEM all show 1" or more along and N of 78, including for NYC.  We might get an overperformer if we're lucky.  

They're all sloppy with the QPF fields...if that ends up being more a consolidated WAA snow shield we may see this overperform. Once again though the NAM was pretty bad with this til we got inside 36.  I've been saying for awhile now, avoid that model beyond 36, sometimes it does okay 36-48 but often time its the final day or day and a half where its reliable.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon slightly more south 

That is about my guess for the moment on what happens.  I think it'll be extremely hard to get this to be heavily frozen this far south.

The EPO/PNA still suck in the long range, so it won't be going January 94/85 February 2015 anytime soon but the location of the PV being on this side of the pole will mean it can easily get cold enough for snow and the -PNA means we are not in a bone dry pattern.  The AO/NAO have the look of not wanting to consistently stay strongly - or + so far for more than 7-10 days and often times if thats your trend through 12/31 it stays that way all winter so those 2 may largely be non major factors.   The PNA/WPO/EPO at some stage likely go through a major reversal of where they've been in the next 20-30 days and that probably decides what the 1/15-3/10 period is

1 hour ago, SHELEG said:

GFS is so far south it’s a miss.

Yeah that definitely won't happen.  I'd still lean towards this probably being too far north for anything here, but there is potential now for something when 2-3 days ago there was none.

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

The 18Z GEFS for the first time from like 360-384 shows signs of a +PNA trying to develop but I'd bet its close to the 12th-15th before any chance of it

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

I have not followed it beyond 48-60 with storms so far.  I do know its had a bias of being too warm aloft, so basically the reverse of what the HRRR bias is

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

I’d give them a decent shot now but we got a ways to go.  This system will probably have two maxes.  The area that gets hit from the initial warm advection and clipper and then from the developing surface low offshore.  Someone in between will get the shaft.  Right now the prime shaft zones may be places like central MA down through CT and central to eastern LI.  It’s a case where Morristown could see more snow than New Haven 

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its coming overnight with temps around freezing. Should be able to squeeze out an inch or so at central park before ending as drizzle. Unless the whole thing trends north. Still 3 days to go

I've not seen us get snow this far south with a clipper that far north that I remember.  But its sort of a case of perfect timing here where it comes in after a fairly cold airmass is on its way out so you get overrunning snows.   Its somewhat similar to 12/27/84 though that was more just a mid or upper level wave inducing overrunning snows than it was a clipper/warm front feature. It shows you how snow is often more luck than anything else and how in -PNA patterns it is easier for us to get lucky than +PNA ones where its more often boom or bust nowadays.

RRFS congrats NYC lol.  Would not trust it at this range though

RRFS is ridiculously south.  Probably can toss that.  I have not looked at it much past 48 but it seems less wacky and ugly overall than the NAM does beyond that period most of the time so I guess good news there as far as improvement with the new model

The NAM appears to have NAM'd.  ICON/RGEM are about what I'd expect.  I think the Euro is a tad too far south with this right now.

The only thing great at the moment is the WPO maybe heading back into king territory again where it can overwhelm everything else.  Otherwise the other indices do not look particularly great.  That said, I do not see any shutout pattern developing either, it would still be one with chances for snow.

Just now, WinterWolf said:

NAM at 72 hrs out…toss that into toilet. 

Yeah would not worry about that with how consistent most other models were at 00 and 06z.  Looks like it just organizes everything late.

54 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Not sure the surface will be a problem generally, but for city itself heat island always an issue unless really cold. 

It should be cold enough easily, just need a decent shift south still to keep it all snow otherwise its quick inch to dry slot or light rain

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though  

The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event.  At least to start.  Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z.  The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end.

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s, 

Europe has not been cold in seemingly forever in winter.  Thats the pattern that really gets them cold, though they did well in 09-10 and 10-11 (early) with a W based -NAO, overall the e based one is better though.

14 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

he's been saying this for days now. the storms crashing into the west coast are giving sf some rain lmao. utah, colorado, idaho, wyoming resorts are torched and dry as a bone

Yeah this just is not a cold pattern for the west at all really.  The Bering Sea ridge and subsequent trof are too far west.  Its a fine line for them, a 700 mile shift east would produce December 1990 results for them but as of now too much Pac air is getting into that trof so they're just not cold and won't be any time soon

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m very curious to see what happens in Jan with the PNA based on -ENSO strong Dec -PNA analogs like 2021, 2013, 2010, 2008, and 1984 whose Jan PNA all rose 1.8++ from Dec. That’s still well beyond what models can see with any notable degree of skill.

00 and 97 I think also went pretty strong +PNA I think but can’t recall if they were negative in December or not.  I want to say they were not 

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the AO and NAO are looking good on the latest GEFS, the PNA is not.

It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first.  If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO.  If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks.  I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good  

Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300.  I'm sure the GEFS will look different.

Just now, snowman19 said:

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990

Chances are those will be wrong.  The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter.  I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol. 

They seem to think we're in an El Nino

37 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are.  If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least.  No signs of that though

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything.  The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern.  We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec.  I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15.  Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative