SnowGoose69

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the AO and NAO are looking good on the latest GEFS, the PNA is not.

It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first.  If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO.  If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks.  I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good  

Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300.  I'm sure the GEFS will look different.

Just now, snowman19 said:

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990

Chances are those will be wrong.  The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter.  I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol. 

They seem to think we're in an El Nino

37 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are.  If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least.  No signs of that though

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything.  The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern.  We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec.  I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15.  Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

That looks like a lock.  Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

what does the "3" la nina december in the park" theory have to say about this?

They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well

JFK broke the record from 12/14/2003 by 0.1

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Lol the park with 2.7”

They actually came in 0.1 higher than LGA.  You can see a noticeable dip in accumulations in NE NJ near NYC into Queens/Brooklyn.  Some of that was the heat island but some also was this area got hit by subsidence somewhat.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Any chance LGA can beat 3.6”? If so, it would mean their heaviest single storm total in nearly 4 years (Jan of 2022) and heaviest in Dec in 5 years.

I think they'll be right near 3-3.5

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm curious what anyone in Manhattan near central park thinks of the 1.1 "official measurement in the Park at 7:00 am? 

At 7:00 am 2.4 at EWR, 1.7 at LGA and 2.6 at JFK. If it was once you let it go but it's all the time.

Maybe they should just stop and make LGA the official measurements in NYC or actually get a trained spotter near the Park to take them. I guess they just don't give a F.

They weren’t that far off.  I got 1.6 at 9am.  I was surprised how much it melted or must have been melting.  My guess is they’ll end around 2.1 to 2.4

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Over 3 now

.11 liquid since.  Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5

All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow.  Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now.  Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne

I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.

20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

LOL is right,  same as citing the NAM at this range... without caveats 

The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them.  The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked.  I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.  

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The Euro was horrific with the last event for New England. It’s back and forth here. My call is for snow showers and up to 2” of snow. I hope I’m wrong 

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years.  I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this.  But we still have a ways to go.

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms.  It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast.  Thats been a tendency now for a few years.  For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period.  Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models.  The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% correct!!

 

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

2 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps