SnowGoose69

The HRRR has something going on.  For example, its showing sleet in places like Detroit then you check the sounding and its -2C at the warmest anywhere

Just now, psv88 said:

RGEM v NAM eh?

To be honest I forecast for the entire eastern US and both have been bad this winter overall.  The Euro has more or less owned the show this year inside 36 hours.   

The NAM idea made more sense last storm because it was truly much more disorganized.  It barely had an organized precip shield til it was almost overhead.  This system is a bit faster to get going.  I also don’t think 4-6 is realistic at all for NYC, I would only go 2-4 right now and closer to 2 than 4

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

6z euro

Likely have to wait til this first storm moves out, again, if this one tomorrow and Sunday is more south and we see mainly snow even down close to the city it probably increases the risk this event on Tuesday ends up south.  I've sort of been leaning towards this being an NYC south event for a few days.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro running soon for the tiebreaker......any predictions ?

Even the UKMET came slightly south from 12z so it likely comes south as well, at this range though it means little, if it did this tomorrow night I think its more of an issue, there's a big difference in an across the board swing at 80-90 hours than 120

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP

If anything they appear even more south overall than the Op run through 114

Funny how the HRRR at 48 is a straight up torch and way north this time, meanwhile it was way south and an ice box with today's event.  NAM looks close to the Euro/GFS overall

Just now, TSSN+ said:

They won’t lol. Well maybe Ai. Euro won’t catch on yet probably. EPS has had plenty of members though with similar solutions. 

The Euro/AI are probably less impressive on the 11th event somewhat because they're flatter with the event that occurs before it on Sunday.  Its not the whole story but I think its a big part of why.  I still lean towards Sunday being more GFSish though I am concerned about the AI solution being where its at, its honestly not botched an event inside 72 yet this winter

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

now if we can only get a couple of those other storms to bump north next week 

The Tuesday one largely depends on what Sunday does, you can even see that on the Euro/AI to a degree, they're noticeably flatter with Tuesday since they're farthest south Sunday. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That 1992 storm gave 6 inches to NYC but less than 4 at JFK if I remember correctly, it kept going back and forth depending on ptype and we never had much snowdepth during that storm.

 

I think LGA/JFK stayed all snow, JFK may have had PL mixed in at times, it was anticipated we'd change to rain and we never did but the March sun angle and marginal temps led to tons of melting and compacting.  I measured 7 at the time in Astoria and LGA reported close to that but if that event was 4-5 weeks earlier we'd have had a foot

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early Feb 1994 and late Feb/early Mar 1960 are similar. The latter had a monster KU at the end of the pattern. I would say the pattern next week is most similar to 1994 with the SE ridge flexing, but it morphs more like 1960 in the week after that as the NAO/AO block really imposes its will.

 

 

 

 

I noticed today many records being broken in the SE US were from 94, of course back then the SE Ridge was overpowered fast and most of those areas finished the month barely above normal in the end, they'll be way way above this time in a totally different climate, even if the final 8 days average below

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

these maps and forecasts from okx and box are all over the place. if you didnt know any better or just like the general public you could get anything from 4-6", 4-7", 5-9" 8-12" for the same location! whether you click on the watch, the pc, the zone, or the 2 different maps they have. they gotta fix their messaging, its crazy.

And the watch for NYC/LI for 2-4 doesnt make sense

I think they're hedging in NYC/LI because the Euro/NAM but IMO the Euro/NAM have always had issues with south biases on SWFE type storms forever, its not as bad as it once was with the NAM, the Euro has gotten worse though with this last event it oddly enough was a bit north til the final 24-36 hours.  I'd have left NYC out for now.

There's a ton of notable events in the analogs but to me none of them resemble this.  The problem with CIPS is it tends to grab by region so the pattern overall may not be close.  3/19/92 has some similarities but the pattern was may more favorable in Canada that kept that storm more south.  To me 12/19/08 is actually the closest match to this storm.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us1219.php

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2025020612&map=thbCOOP72

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The ice factor

I think its more the concern that 6 inches is a possibility, albeit a low one.  That said, to me a watch was more warranted on the event 2 weeks ago at this range than it is here.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well next Tue/Wed still looks good. 

That could ultimately end up missing us to the south.  I’ve never loved the prospects of that event.  I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.  

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

This was a fairly warm system aloft. Not much cold wedging either so even surface temps are warming. 

Advisory called for an inch of snow/sleet and that makes sense. 

Wasn't expecting more than that from this one. Much higher ceiling Saturday 

Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better.  I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though 

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

never sleep on nams

Even the NAM didn’t have JFK raining at 12Z.  The main issue here as some posted yesterday was steady precip came in too late.  You needed rates of like .05 an hour by 08-09Z or so and you’d have had a shot at maybe 2 inches even in areas around the city but it wasn’t til almost 11z in the end.   

The CMC storm cutting into PA probably is never going to happen.  I'd be more worried about misses south late next week than being too far NW.  

18Z Euro no major change, it may have a bit more warm nose progressing in slightly faster but its within 20 miles of its 12Z track on everything

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes. 

Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro.  I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z.  If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch.  Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island

The 18Z NAM now is in range with snow by Sat evening

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall:

Chances are the boundary won’t sit there that long or there won’t be as much activity riding along it as the Euro shows.  

I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place.  It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis.    Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.

Just now, mitchnick said:

Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak.

Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern