SnowGoose69

6 minutes ago, justinj said:

Does anyone think this coast has atleast a shot at an inch? Seems very unfavorable

Not really....I think the Newark/NYC/LGA area does have a shot for something here but you probably need to see this come in 2-3 hours ahead of what most models have now.  That is an area that could if everything went right probably see like 2-3 inches.

Just now, Dark Star said:

13 days out, little faith in the accuracy.  Until we actually see true arctic air coming across the pole, nothing will change.  I must sound like a broken record, but look at real time data, not the models, to get an idea of what is going on.  

My main concern is we lose the general more east trof post 1/15 if the MJO goes through the bad phases...but its possible we get lucky anyway if it traverses through there too weakly 

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

West is where it's at. Been that way for several years now.

But we'll get a chance eventually 

Yeah it'll happen this month but probably not tomorrow.  I honestly felt NYC would get 1 inch from this.  I am fairly confident now they do not 

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb

I never know what to think about wave magnitude.  BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino.  I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Busy day saw a post earlier is anyone worried about the MJO mid month?

You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days.  The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit.  That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.  

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?

RGEM can be pretty good now inside 54-60.  The NAM IMO is junk beyond 36-48.  the 3km really is only good inside of 30.

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

will definitely be a difference from nyc to white plains, I see more 5” but it all depends on precipitation rates/intensity. see if models continue the trend with the 2nd half of this storm i can see it.

DT has been saying he thinks EWR/TEB/HPN see big snows.  I do not really believe that as it stands now.  I felt maybe the NWS map in places like NE NJ and near interior parts of Fairfield/New Haven was overdone.  That said we have time still to change that idea.

The one promise I will make...even if NYC does not get 1 inch from this they will get 1 inch by the end of the month

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

The RGEM generally is too amped and west at 72-84 9 out of 10 so I would expect it to come somewhat E-S on the next few runs.  It used to be over amped past 36-40 but its usually okay now up til 66-72.

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I laugh at the attention you guys give the NAM. 

At this range I seriously only trust the RGEM/Euro on a system like this...obviously the GFS is gonna over torch the BL among other problems the NAM/ICON/UKMET just cannot be trusted for various reasons...by this time tomorrow we can probably begin to trust the NAM somewhat 

Never ever trust the NAM past 48, especially in involved setups such as this.  In general the NAM is to be trusted when it shows virtually no run to run changes...see January 2016 or February 2010 when that thing did not budge one inch on its idea from 84 hours in.  Any time its moving all over its useless

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

SSTs being warmer may help with stronger winter storms if the pattern is better in February, no?

It always helps now.  This is why storms of 12 plus since 2000-2002 have become commonplace. Crazy pwat values and just bombing storms which I blame fully on warmer Atlantic SSTs.  This is why I still think something big can happen for the metro here.  If there is potential for faster phase/intensity these days it tends to find a way to happen  

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.

Yeah this is an event where Fenway gets 9 and Logan gets 2.  Normally by now ocean is cold enough that even screaming east flow won’t matter but SSTs are warmer this year 

34 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Hoping we get NAM'D soon!

We probably do but I wouldn’t trust anything the NAM shows til probbaly tomorrow afternoon or evening  

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but the only time in the past 40 years that LI has ever gone from at least moderate rain to snow that accumulated more than say, 3 inches, was on December 25, 2002 (which featured a lot more than that.)  That's it, at least in the last 40 years in SE Nassau.

NYC has only 2 events where they record 1 inch of rain and then 5 inches or more of snow...12/25/02 is one.  I cannot recall what the other is but Bastardi has posted it a few times, he uses it as an example that in general if you get significant rain the system better be undergoing a massive bombing or phase or it probably means significant snow after the changeover will be near impossible 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good to see Seattle and Vancouver cashing in on a Nino. Shades of last year.

Much like down here in NYC we usually get 1 week of good weather in mid January in raging Ninas or really ANY Ninas with bad patterns like 96-97 98-99 Seattle has a track record of cashing in during bad Nino winters for them too in early to mid January before the background state inevitably goes to crap for them again

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah, rule we always used is you want 700mb to -8 to -10C if you're gonna flip over on back side and accumulate...its -5C so not even close

Numerical numbers show DPs around 32...its really close...as currently shown I think NYC is 34/32 in there and maybe it accumulates verbatim if its coming down crazy hard but current thermals to me fall short unless this thing can further phase/bomb earlier...no doubt the fact it will be overnight would help, even in January

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still above freezing

Yeah, rule we always used is you want 700mb to -8 to -10C if you're gonna flip over on back side and accumulate...its -5C so not even close

The Op Euro being the most east at 96-120 is scary...obviously Op runs should not really be used heavily at this range but its something we've rarely seen since its most recent upgrade on stronger systems.  I still am telling people today I more fear a total or near total miss down here than I do this tracking overhead 

Obviously you never should focus too much on Op runs at 100-120 hours but I cannot remember a single major system where the Op Euro was not overamped the last few winters...the fact its consistently been the most SE the last few runs is sort of concerning to me as that has rarely happened in recent years on stronger systems at this range.  Its a very apparent bias that is absent the last 2 days here 

I have always found anytime confluence is a concern it abates sometimes on models around Day 4-6 only to start becoming a problem again inside of that.  Its why I am still concerned this could move SE.  

I am still slightly more worried about a miss than I am this coming too far NW.  I think its highly likely all the snow droughts at the stations end though they may end with only like 1 inch if we end up with the more west track close to us

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS has stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent than the GEPS. So that’s probably why it has a more pronounced -PNA. 
 

 

If we assume EPS too weak GEFS too strong but also too slow as its been recently we probably can blend the ensembles and it'l be less ridgy in the east.  I guess its a question does the wave die before it really gets to 6.  Ideally we probably want it to because if we have to survive even a weak push through 5-6 that takes us to 1/20 probably.   I think there is a better chance of a +PNA late month if the wave dies in 5 or early in 6

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised we didn't squash the SE ridge in mid-March because the Pacific ridge extended up to -EPO. Must be because it's in the later part of the -PNA phase/cycle

https://ibb.co/SRLw91H   https://ibb.co/QX0zz36

It was discussed a ton in the MA forum the last year why it seems we now get an SER in patterns we never used to get it in before.  Nobody really knows why 

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a weird look. Just a stretched out trough with that 7th deal. Good airmass though.

It just reeks of a setup that works with shorter wavelengths.  I'd think its highly likely in early January its a miss but might work in late March