SnowGoose69

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

That looks like a lock.  Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

what does the "3" la nina december in the park" theory have to say about this?

They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well

JFK broke the record from 12/14/2003 by 0.1

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Lol the park with 2.7”

They actually came in 0.1 higher than LGA.  You can see a noticeable dip in accumulations in NE NJ near NYC into Queens/Brooklyn.  Some of that was the heat island but some also was this area got hit by subsidence somewhat.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Any chance LGA can beat 3.6”? If so, it would mean their heaviest single storm total in nearly 4 years (Jan of 2022) and heaviest in Dec in 5 years.

I think they'll be right near 3-3.5

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm curious what anyone in Manhattan near central park thinks of the 1.1 "official measurement in the Park at 7:00 am? 

At 7:00 am 2.4 at EWR, 1.7 at LGA and 2.6 at JFK. If it was once you let it go but it's all the time.

Maybe they should just stop and make LGA the official measurements in NYC or actually get a trained spotter near the Park to take them. I guess they just don't give a F.

They weren’t that far off.  I got 1.6 at 9am.  I was surprised how much it melted or must have been melting.  My guess is they’ll end around 2.1 to 2.4

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Over 3 now

.11 liquid since.  Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5

All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow.  Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now.  Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne

I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.

20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

LOL is right,  same as citing the NAM at this range... without caveats 

The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them.  The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked.  I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.  

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The Euro was horrific with the last event for New England. It’s back and forth here. My call is for snow showers and up to 2” of snow. I hope I’m wrong 

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years.  I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this.  But we still have a ways to go.

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms.  It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast.  Thats been a tendency now for a few years.  For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period.  Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models.  The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% correct!!

 

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

2 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum.  I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts  and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility.  In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going.  I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA.  May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. 

I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. 

Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities.  Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another.  There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they need to start making hallmark movies where it's 45 and raining on christmas

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged.  I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Still think we got another 36 hours or so til Sunday is figured out.  There continues to be a risk of anything from C-1 inch, several inches, a rainer, or a miss completely.  I am still not that sold on any major warmup, unfortunately there may be a 3-5 stretch that hits the XMas window dead on but until that WPO as Don has pointed out goes positive there is a chance that ridging isn't extended to the E Coast or the NE for more than just a brief period.  The EPO pop too on the EPS drops back towards neutral by 12/25

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How’s the AI? 

GFSAI has a storm off Nantucket at 114