SnowGoose69

I'd still watch NYE with the FROPA, the RGEM shows what can and has happened before with those setups, a small surface low forming off the coast on the front and some areas, especially S and E portions can see accumulating snow

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree strongly. You can get an amplified storm with only the northern stream. The PNA gives you the track you need for a coastal and the NAO both prevents a cutter and slows down the flow to allow storms to amplify. 
 

what we have been missing lately is both the storm track and a blocky flow which allows storms to amplify. This pattern provides that, northern stream or not. 
 

Sure we may not get an east coast QPF bomb without some help from the STJ, but we can absolutely see a prolonged period of moderate to higher end events with this pattern. 
 

everyone on her know I have no bias when it comes to weather, I’m calling it how I see it. 

Next 5-7 days I don't see anything but something could show up after 1/4 or 1/5.  Still think 1/10 or 1/12 and after is where the major risk begins 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November 

Probably the longer it takes the +PNA to develop the less February ends up mild because it tends to be a difficult pattern to flip out of rapidly, so if it does not establish til around 1/15 I could see it being 2/10 or 2/15 before we really begin to get that setup.  In recent really mild Februarys in the La Nina years January has tended to be cold from the very beginning.  I think outside of the Lakes/NE its going to be 1/12 or so til we see the cold anomalies get down into the SE/TN Valley/Plains

On 12/25/2025 at 1:10 AM, 64Storm said:

First one of the week. More to come. 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0437 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 73 DEGREES SET IN 2016.

Another narrow miss of the 79 from 1991 today.  Just seems to me 80 is not possible there in December unless its full sunshine and deep WSW flow.  Today was just a bit too cloudy.  Tomorrow definitely too many clouds so probably 73-75 is best that could happen.

4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Granted I'm on Long Island, but I can probably count on one hand the number of years in the last 45 that we had significant snowcover last until the next big storm. New snow on top of old snow has always been quite rare.  93/94 of course is one such year, but even 95/96 notably was not.  In the 80s we had a few years where the snow from a moderate clipper lasted a few weeks in a very cold month, but again the Blizzard of '83 year was practically snowless right up to that storm, and was mild almost immediately after it.  Not saying the trend hasn't been toward more frequent mild spells, but it was almost never anything close to wall-to-wall winter around here.

Does not happen often.  93/94 obviously 2/8 and 2/11 is the most memorable case.  95-96 I do not recall any really, seemed like the close together events were small and melted and the big ones had separation and we had a massive thaw too.  09-10 I think had a couple of instances.

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Nice f'in job by the NAM yesterday at go time. It nailed the jackpot zone, the 3-4" across NYC metro, 4-6 LHV, and less in NJ. It even showed the inv trof lingering into daylight hours today. 

Sure you can quibble about minor misses here and there (remember this is 3rd party estimated at 10:1)... like it had more sleet than snow overnight in NJ which slightly underestimated final totals there and SWCT might be a little low. But with snowfall forecasting, no forecast map is ever perfect. But the NAM was hands down the winner. GFS performed horribly. 

The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too.  It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two.  So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.

Just now, Rjay said:

Central Park had 0.3" at 7pm, 2.3" at 1am and 4.3" at 7am.  It's tough to say bc they don't measure between hours.  Using that info I could say we probably didn't break the streak on 4" snowfall day but I'm not sure if there's a way to know.  Don or Bluewave will probably chime in.  

I think they also use an estimate for the daily snowfall as they do not measure at both 12am and 1am.  They did for awhile but for the last 4-5 years have stopped doing that.  The official daily total was 1.7 I think.  I have no idea what they used to do pre 92-93.  I was told years back they just had the HMT/Intern drive up to a spot in the park from the NWS office at Rockefeller and measure at 12/1/7/1/7 respectively.  

Just now, uofmiami said:

 

This has to be the first time in ages I can recall the Euro/NAM both actually getting QPF right in a storm, in general they're insanely too dry/wet respectively.  Its strange how both somehow got it right the QPF would be way lower than many other guidance parameters had

JB with yet another totally random X post lol.  He says only 5 Januarys since 75 with the MJO spending 23 or more days in the null phase.  All were quite cold in the East/MW/Plains.  80 82 96 00 03.  Problem with that post is who knows if the BOMM/EPS are possibly accurate out that far and only 1 of those 5 years comes close to our current ENSO (96)

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Webbie thinks suppression is coming 

Hard to say.  The GEFS really looks nothing like the EPS/GEPS.  I think at some point after 1/12-1/15 we go into a pattern than might be more suppression risk but not sure before that.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

If CPK got 4.3 this isnt really a bust. Just a low end of the range.

I lived thru busts in the 80s and 90s before we had all this technology in the palm of our hand. You would go to bed expecting snow and you would wake up to grass.

Enjoy it! As someone rightly pointed out, a snowstorm from the NW is a rarity in NYC. Also a rarity (lately) in NYC: a snowy December.

You don’t usually see widespread “clear air busts” anymore these days.  These types of cases where a small sector of the impact region gets screwed is more common vs the entire storm taking a track 100 miles off at the last second 

Oddly enough snow growth based on ASOS reports relative to radar echoes and ground reports seems good.  You would not think thats the case given the area went over to sleet for a time though.

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR is on some serious crack or there's still quite a bit to go for most of this subforum. 01z run just coming out has 0.70" liquid for my backyard, 0.55" for NYC and even 0.40" out by Morristown. Has a pretty good period of snow overhead by around midnight sparked by the stuff coming in from western NY and ends around 5am. 

That area might actually hit LI.  I still think places as far west as the Nassau/Suffolk border could do well but I'd think it'll swing too far E for NYC and you have to expect given its coming from the NNW some degree of downslope will happen

The sleet changeover did not even matter much as it stands now.  The 5 boroughs would have had maybe 1-1.5 so far had that not happened.  The QPF bust is really the issue.  We'd have seen 5 plus easily in and near the city even with that brief surge of the sleet

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

As long as this storm puts knyc over 3” for december we’ll have an above avg snow winter. Or something. 

I got a report of 2.4 from someone in Central Park about 15 minutes ago.  I don't think that is correct, would think something more near like 1.5 is realistic right now

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Massive bust low for us. I doubt Central Park even makes it to 3” at this rate. It’s been a while since we’ve had a busy like this. We’re more overdue for bad busts than we are for a 4” snowfall. Pitiful 

They'd actually get over 4 easily probably if the back edge of this was not so quickly approaching.  Its mostly all snow there now once again

Ratios are not as good either as I thought they'd be.  POU has had .38 liquid, friend lives about 2 mi from the airport he has had only 4.9 so far, similar readings on LI it seems where its about 10 or 11:1.  I felt maybe 15 was possible especially up in the LHV

Long Island is probably still fine.  Not sure about Queens Brooklyn Bronx or NYC though unless that line stops like the 12/3Km NAM showed 

Given the radar over NYC and NE NJ I’m surprised most stations aren’t reporting anything 

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Lets give it a couple of hours to see what happens but I agree surprised parts of Warren County NJ and Stroudsburg, PA area are mixed at the moment.

There were some runs of the RGEM and NAM that suggested those areas and even into middlesex could mix for the first two hours before heavier rates pushed the line back south and west   

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro often too dry in these scenarios I think. 

I feel its always too dry with the exception of deep lows.  Its not always a huge error but .25-.30 too low can be 4-5 inches if you have a 15:1 event.

I think NYC finally gets 4, whether its 4.1 or 7.2 I don't know but I'd lean closer to the 4 for sure right now though.

The Euro has been low on QPF in most significant storms so far to impact the Midwest/Lakes/NE this last 2 months so I am not surprised to see it doing the same again.

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

is this really turning into a 8-9 hour event...basically 6-3am

It won't even be that, it'll be 4 hours from like 7-11pm.  I think after that its just snizzle/pellets/frz drizzle, even in SW CT and the LHV where they may get 7-10 inches that'll happen.  Its rare to see big overrunning type events be snow all the way through, even in areas which get hit hard

The GEFS/EPS still strongly disagree on virtually every indice.  GEFS likes more of a -AO/NAO/WPO/PNA whereas the EPS is way less negative on the AO/NAO and same story on the WPO/PNA