SnowGoose69

Definitely going to be graupel mixed in til 23z or so based on latest obs...you can see looking at the METARS from E PA to NJ that a line from around CDW back to just east of TTN and down through metro PHL the visibilities are high based on the radar echoes, everything back behind that is all snow

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I see snow in the air in Phillie, light right now.

Definitely is SNGS, PHL METAR confirms it, should be all snow soon

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eagles/Rams game dry lol

Not for long, maybe 15-20 more minutes

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nams 2-5 area wide 

yeah finally has a handle on it, matches current radar, as I said earlier this event all occurs from around the city east in a 3-4 hour period from 22-02 or so

LGA  191900 METAR 191851Z 07007KT 2 1/2SM GSSN SCT020 OVC038 03/M03 A2974  RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SNB31GSB47 SLP070 GS LGT P0000 T00281028
                   
 

DPs are pretty low now in the HSV and SW CT.  The N wind is gonna pull those down in the 22-01z period.  LGA/JFK will go from like 37/34 to 32/30 really fast once this consolidates and moves in

Just now, LibertyBell said:

New Orleans might get 4+ before New York City does ;-)

They'll get sleeted to death there in the end probably.  I checked the IAH/MSY airport snow records and basically nothing of this magnitude has ever happened before.  I think more mid level WAA could sneak in there.  Baton Rouge maybe, they've had 6-7 inch storms before 

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.

I still think something happens there, the strong 250mb jet on the N side could also generate snow.  I'd start watching the HRRR at the end of its runs.  It has tended to do a good job seeing these WAA induced areas of snow that can occur as a result of that feature and it will see them at 48 hours.  If the 18Z or 00Z HRRR generate snow into MS/AL north of the other models that would be an indicator of it

The HRRR/06Z Euro are only models that seem to be close at the moment....all show little activity from NYC-E til 2130z or so

The HREF looks overdone.  To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach

The ICON finally got a clue this run and looks similar over GA/SC to others

The main problem I see now is DPs/Ts higher than modeled.  for example LGA 40/30, both NAM/GFS had 36/27 or so.   It may mean any snow from 18-21Z or so won't do a whole lot but not sure it matters a ton as 22-02 was probably when the meaningful rates were coming anyway

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MOS surface temps are not used enough around here on the coast. 
 

That would help balance these clown maps out in the warmer areas.

 

Blasphemy.

I always use them in situations like this to gauge evaporative cooling potential.  One thing is for sure early, the 36/27 at LGA at 15Z won't be right, its 40/30 now

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

I was just about to post that. I am in south Coweta county, and they issued a WSW. Looks like I am looking at maybe an inch if lucky. Seems a bit premature, but I guess it couldn't hurt to be proactive. Slight shift north could put us in a 3 inch range.

The January 2018 and January 2014 storms at this range looked similar.  This is actually an extremely close match to 14, 18 not quite as much as that had more NW flow and was a weaker system down along the Gulf which fooled so many of us but we were warned on forecasts for the AL/GA region to watch out because there was SW flow in the mid-levels and the models could be underdoing amounts.  sure enough inside 36 hours everything started expanding the snow area and parts of S ATL had 4 inches with it.    

The HRRR can suck on systems like this where its organizing/developing very late and in close proximity to an area.  I'd still stick with there being risk of more 5s and 6s vs 3s and 4s

Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA.  I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north

The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

These events always are this way.  The post MetLife stadium Super Bowl storm in 2014 I think was mid or high 40s before and I know the April event maybe 5-6 years ago was too  

The Euro just totally owned every model on the storm up here for tomorrow so just keep hoping its run continues down your way on this one.  Oddly enough the RGEM/CMC agrees with it for this storm though and that was the model that just got beat the worst up here for tomorrow

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not giving it any credence but what happened to the ICON lol

The ICON does wacky stuff once you're inside like 72.  I use it sometimes to get a sense of where other models are at from 72-144 or so and it can outperform the GFS/CMC on the end result there often but close in it can be all over.

I thought the NWS having watches out back into PA and parts of NY yesterday was gutsy based off more or less only 1 model or 2.  The BGM/ALY headlines look okay now to me as far as advisory/warning but SCE and Mt Holly may be a bit generous for sure on some counties in warnings

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts.  I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.  

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night.

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember this-- it was supposed to change to rain here but it never did, just drizzle at the end, 7 inches of snow at JFK? For some reason that number sounds about right.

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A.  By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060.  It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit.  The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped.  Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

any maps or data ?

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2025011812&map=thbCOOP72

Lots of 5-7s just inland, this one has more a surface reflection vs an anafrontal appearance so totals may be bigger.  

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0202.php