SnowGoose69

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I was surprised to see that one make the list. The 2 February events were better out here

The warm nose was pretty stubborn all night in the metro in that one.  I think LGA saw way more snow than the S shore of LI did.  I drove later that day from LI to Florida (NY, not Florida Florida) and there like 10 inches up there

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT getting a nice snowstorm

They're gonna mix probably

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where was that in January? 

The PV orientation if I recall right in Canada was far east and elongated which prevented it.  Also we had more of a neutral NAO and -AO.  

The pattern honestly screams suppression post 2/17 or so but not totally sure I buy it

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Tbh ... I would be perfectly happy if we had gotten a big dog next week and called it a day after that. I mean, if we get some surprises great. But everything has been so mediocre and really just a struggle to get something meaty. Time will tell. Just another week to wait!

The window to me is 2/17-2/23, after that if you even take the ensemble pattern verbatim and assume the Pac Jet is underdone the ridge again may end up too far east and we'll be cool and dry.

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty much everything is showing 1 to 2 right now, except for the slightly more bullish NAM that shows a few inches. Still enough time for a north bump, but right now 1 to 3 looks like a good forecast. 

Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night before the mixing. This is the winter of numerous light snowfalls. Wish we could get a bigger snowstorm, but at least this beats a warm winter with almost no snow. Appears we're at least gonna nickel and dime our way to 20 inches for the winter which isn't terrible. Still hoping we get lucky with a bigger storm late month though. 

I think 3-4 is the best case still southern parts of our area.  The next storm is just way too amped up that even inland areas may be ZR or sleet mostly, that setup is good as far as high placement but you need a weak wave not a jacked up system.

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nothing high-end to track through this period. Thump still on track for Wed night. But big threats mostly fizzled. Same story since 2021 I believe.

We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now

And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"

The block is just too far north, would not have mattered even back then if it was that far up

13 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So the Wednesday into Thursday event maybe doesn’t go to rain? I thought it seemed like it was 

Might not inland, depends on how strong the system is, exactly where that high is positioned etc.  The 18Z RGEM high position not sure anyone inland goes over to rain really

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem also has 1-2 early Thursday morning 

Thursday would be decent if the system was not so amped up.  Its one of those SSW approachers with the high to our north but its just way to zonked right now the coast to see much snow.

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t 

Its funny how it mishandled yesterday here so similarly to how it mishandled the southern snow event that gave ATL 3-4 inches a few weeks back.  In both cases it was insanely far north inside the final 12-18 hours and practically dry slotted areas where the most snow fell.  I know some of the SNE forum posters have said in the case of systems that are more dynamic with WAA it can go overboard sometimes and handles the more modest intensity storms better

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

One thing to watch on that is the HRRR as it comes into range on this, its usually been able to see those jet induced areas of snow, sort of picked it up on the event last time which was mostly well to our south

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?

More just fast/progressive flow.  There is confluence stretched form NNE back to the Upper Midwest/Canada border which likely stops this from getting up to say BOS.  The north movement with this the last 2 days is a combo I think of the shortwave that you see crossing Quebec into NRN Maine and NB near 50 hours out being faster and out of the way and likely also the next system diving down into the Rockies/high plains possibly pumping the SE ridge a bit more downstream.

This sort of event often has a band of frontogenesis induced heavier snow up near the north fringe of the system.  Ratios could also be 12-15:1 with this, really need .20-.30 liquid to get this to be possibility of something more significant 

The 06z UKIE and AI went back south a bit, the high res GFS seems to indicate the 12Z GFS won't move, not a surprise to me as this is a storm that the GFS probably would be south of everything else but I don't think anything over 1-4 is realistic right now and the 4s would be SI/JFK.

The setup is becoming crazily complicated now, they are almost involving 2 waves which is partially why this has come north and now the big system behind it is trending way less "cutty" at 00Z which I think most agreed would happen since this pattern is not producing a Great Lakes bomb

NYC/LGA reported .20 liquid but just 1 inch this hour so ratios may have dropped to 7:-8:1 as can happen before a changeover

Yeah its real heavy now, LGA .08 liquid already this hour, easily could be 2 inches this hour

CPCantmeasure might have work cut out tomorrow AM, this is a classic case where they'll come in with a crazy low total because the sleet will compact it before the 1am measurement

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Same here neighbor, sounds like it's starting to ping a little bit now though.

Its that small subsidence zone between the two intense areas, will probably go all snow again when that area in WRN SI up through N-C NJ crosses, after that clears I think it goes all sleet

This storm is doing what I said last event could.  Heaviest rates sometimes happen in the first area that sees snow just N or E of where the mix line stalls for the longest, sometimes areas well N and E who get all snow out of the storm never see rates as intense though they might get higher amounts.  We saw it in Philly about 10 years ago, they got 8 inches in like 3 hours but eventually went to sleet and rain.

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nyc going to get over 4

Maybe 3, I think its changing over soon after 10pm but there could be 2 inches this next hour for sure

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

Echoes drop off in intensity here soon so some areas may see sleet mix back in but then another area of heavier echoes could cross after 930.  I would say 10-1015 the sleet line will probably cross the metro, it should begin moving quickly near or just before that