SnowGoose69

I still cannot believe how different the GFS is in the SE past 120 compared to every other model

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Difference between GFS, CMC, and Euro AI at 90 hours

To give you an idea of what differences each model has.

18z rgem was in the euro Ai camp fwiw




.

The GFS/GEFS difference for the storm on the Gulf Coast last 120 could be the craziest difference I’ve seen from the Op to an ensemble on a single model run inside  day 7 ever 

6 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

DEN is a weird case.   The airport is on a windy plain, it is 6 miles from the SW corner to the NE corner of the airport.   I don't know of any houses anywhere near the airport, within miles.  Not the best place to measure snow depth.  

I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GEFS looks wetter than 12z.. hmmm

Yeah it’s not even close to the Op.  that’s extremely rare to see with the GFS honestly.  They usually are in tandem but there are some setups where there can be wild differences from the Op to the ensembles 

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

I can’t remember the last time the GFS actually scored a coup inside of 4 days but boy is it insistent on Sunday being a complete non event run after run

It also has no event in the south after that so it’s most likely wrong 

41 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The 12z GFS remains quite cold through the end of the run.  One thing that I find interesting is that the surface temperature maps imply that the remaining open water in the eastern and northeastern parts of Hudson Bay will remain unfrozen for the next 384 hours.  That seems unlikely since the open waters are shallower than much larger frozen area to their west and the surrounding temperatures are forecasted (in this run of the GFS) to be below normal much of the time beginning this weekend.  I imagine the temperatures in that area are overdone late in the model run.

 

No matter how many times that SE ridge keeps trying to appear beyond about 290 hours it keeps getting flattened or pushed east once we get closer in time

7 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System,or known as Euro AI or (Big AL) is cooking today.

 

 

 

 

As good as the AI has been its been jumpy post 120.  It keeps going more with the GFS idea of the later wave and the system digging for China.  I am not sure I buy that.  I think something between the UKMET/ICON where it ejects along the Gulf from TX vs coming up out of the oil rigs is more likely.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom?

I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile.  BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either.  If you see that you know they are not measuring there.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet.

I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"?

No it was the 06.  I believe ISP measures at the airport.  As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN.  There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too

Hope the EURO AI is right.  No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches.  Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120.  A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out

I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event.  But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.

CMC and ICON following the Eric Webb theory, he said he felt the boundary was gonna be slower to press east than modeled and hence we'd see a more bomby type low though he said risk the coast could be rainy if it was too slow

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's the icon

The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS.  This may be a bit crazy for the moment though

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

I think that event is another southern event.  The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one.  Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf.  The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries. 

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

 Opposite (sort of) occurred 2/1979. Was expected to be mainly snow and ended up almost all sleet (4.2” also at KATL!!) after no more than first hour or so of snow.

I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed.  I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL.  I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies.  It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW.  I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No

It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade.  This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What a huge mess on the Euro. That would be an incredible ice storm. 

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf.  The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No signs of the southeast ridge on the gfs op. Just the tpv over our heads till the end of the month 

Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter.  the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively 

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

This discussion reminds me a boston met posted something about Logan airport went 4 years without a storm over 6". 1988 - 1992. I knew it was bad those years but I must have blocked it from my memory due to the trauma. 

 

 

NYC went 9 years without an 8 inch storm I think from 1984-1993, but some of that was bad luck and bad measuring.  The 7.6 inches on 1/22/87 had to be wrong based on EWR/LGA and some other random mesoscale bad luck contributed to that