SnowGoose69

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength.  We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does.  We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong 

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like a lot of warm/wet cutters, then cold and dry. Very reminiscent of the 2019 winter set up.

Its just really a bunch of clippers

Just now, GaWx said:

 

In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer.

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019.  2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER.

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is incorrect.

4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time.  NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters.  There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat.  88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period.  I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

RFSS?   I’ve never looked at that one

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last  I heard the NAM may run for another year or so.  Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events.  The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels.  The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.    

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Someday the NAM will be put out to pasture.    I’m sure someone will chime in saying it is useful for something or other.   As Jeff mentioned, it is decent at finding those pesky warm tongues.  But oof. 

Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

 

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow 

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This event is 48 hours away and the euro has a foot for areas that no other model has snow for.

The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much.  But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. 

Bet snowman loves that 

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

17 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

in albany until after new years. nam just said im getting 17 inches here. 

 

love getting nam'd

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.  

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I believe a good comparison would be December 5/6 2009. Offshore track resulting in hours of white rain. Areas just north and west had a moderate accumulation.

Actually a perfect benchmark track.

Forgot about that storm, that was one of the craziest cases I remember where the setup was almost perfect and it rained.  Many of us at that point felt we were headed for another 97-98

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup.  The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Def a marathon of snow today. Real good day to sit inside and watch some football. 

NW/Illinois and Mich State/Maryland are going to be interesting games.  Looks like OSU/Mich will be mostly done before its impactful

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

don't those suck for our area, usually 3-5 inches and than either turns into rain and or icy in suburbs. Never an all snow event

Usually anything from like 1-3 to 3-5 is most common.  Some rare instances where 6-7 has occurred for the coast like February 2008 November 2018 December 1990 but those usually consist of one of two scenarios.  Weak waves vs amping lows or the system approaches more from down in the Carolinas vs the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.  

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to.  I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had.  We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened.  They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times 

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is going to be all snow for the city! 

Faster evolution.  That’s the key here really.  I don’t believe that scenario in early December would remain all snow even if that exact track panned out but the key here really is get that second system to develop as fast behind the first as it can while the high is still in decent position.  

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Can you please be more specific - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?

Yeah first system being the lakes storm which is in essence a glorified FROPA here.  That system over the last 8-10 days has gone from a Midwest cutter to a solid Lakes cutter to a weak lakes low.  This is what mostly led to the failed SER.  That SER shown 10 days ago was a product of that assumed massive cutter.   

The first storm continuing to gradually become strung out and flatter is leading to the second one being more likely to be a hit.  2-3 days ago I felt the second system was a miss but not so much anymore.  That said, keeping with the theme of recent years and given the flow, go weaker on that one too.  I believe there is a decent chance for the 2nd storm to be snow to rain, even to the coast if everything times out correctly but if it’s too late and the high begins to slide offshore it won’t happen  

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO 

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different.  A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those are rare outcomes. For December, there have been just 5 dates that saw such criteria (1980-2024).

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway.  I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.