SnowGoose69

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

Yeah I have my doubts how much the MJO really matters when ENSO is in a moderate or strong regime.  It most definitely caused Dec 2015 to act like a Nina vs a Nino....in reality it acted like a February La Nina pattern, not so much a December one, but regardless a raging SER is unheard of in a mod or strong Nino December.   I am not sure if the MJO wave now or even 10 days from now is strong enough to really be causing the regime we will be in.  To me it looks more or less like your usual mod-strong Nino December where nobody is really cold but the Carolinas to FL average the coldest 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is close with the 2nd wave 

If anything happens it’s going to be with that second system but it’s going to have to work out perfectly. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The RMM charts aren’t telling the whole story. The actual forcing in the 4-7 regions is going to be very robust. This is a warmer than average forcing signal through at least December 20th or 25th. This is why the models keep correcting warmer the closer in time we get. My early guess is that this means another close to 40° or warmer December for NYC.

 

 

I am too lazy to dig that far but isn't phase 7 in Dec during Ninos quite a bit better than it is in neutral or Nina?

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i remember when we got snow in december from less than ideal patterns

12/84 and 12/90 have to be by far the best examples ever, maybe 12/24/98 too.  They all mostly occurred in the final week though.  I cannot really recall a good snow in a bad pattern earlier in the month though I'd rate both the 2003 events as occurring in semi mediocre setups, just timed well

I am wondering if the Euro/EPS is going to out perform the GFS/GEFS/GEPS this winter...the tendency in the past has always been El Nino stay away from the GEFS and GFS, La Nina it often can school the Euro

NCEP probably wants to examine why the HRRR has issues resolving downslope...it seems to overdo these sort of events all the time where no other models show anything.  It seems outside of the cold bias in ptype beyond hour 12 to be the main problem the HRRR has.  I think its partly why it has not yet been run to 60-84 which was planned to have happened by 2023

10 hours ago, Allsnow said:

In winters past once the jet retracts the -epo pops to far west to favor cold in the east. This could be the case again for the second half of the month if the mjo slows in the warm phases, which is why I didn’t understand why people expected it to race through 

Funny thing is 18Z Op GFS shows that crazy AK/W Canada ridge again that is too far west for us usually at D16.

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself. 

PSU has posted before the main change he sees is that for whatever reason we see ridging pop in the SE US or off the SE coast in patterns we in the past would see trofing...he had a good post on it last spring in the MA forum where he showed a few setups where there was BC/W Coast ridging 20 years ago and the whole east coast had a trof but now a ridge was linking up with the NA block

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This was the milder PAC look that was modeled before any block.  That block is probably helping prevent a very warm look. 

The only change I have really seen that is bad and probably was expected or logical is models have sort of lost how fast the change from 12/3-12/6 or so happened but that might be just the fact the air mass gets poisoned somewhat and ensembles/op runs 5 days ago probably rushed the change a bit or underestimated the time it might take to flush out the moderated pac air 

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Any met comment on DT's thoughts on the -NAO in early Dec?  ( that is not really a -NAO?)

He's mentioned this before but he usually references the transient NATL thumb, this is definitely not the transient thumb where you briefly for 2-3 days get positive heights over Greenland.  Its really the only reason we do not go full blown epic torch 12/1-12/3 with that western pattern.  Without that Greenland ridging we'd have a massive SER with highs in the 60s probably on those 3 days

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time.

You can usually do okay here with a -PNA with a -NAO even in December as far as cold/chances for snow but if the PNA is like -1 or weaker...last December I think it was close to -2 for a time, that is too much to overcome in December 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great sign for MJO 

Was always going to be hard to sustain something through 3-4-5 in a Nino this strong much as sustaining in a good 8-1-2 in a Nina is hard

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also with this being MJO driven, some signs maybe this changes mid December. Just some early speculation. Still think sometime before Christmas we try to make a run.

I feel as if any time you want to bank on a 3-4-5 kick in a stronger Nino or a 7-8-1-2 kick in a raging Nina you usually end up seeing it be muted or never occur at all.  I'm still thinking we might see a lousier pattern for awhile but not sure it'll end up being MJO driven

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wasn't 2003 - 2004 a cold, but dry El Nino winter?

03-04 was technically neutral, it was 0.3-0.4 more or less on the average.

2 hours ago, NEPASnow said:

is the convenction still west along the dateline due to the cold water below Hawaii?

The assumption by some is that is the cause for it.  DT's winter write up showed that cold anomaly has mitigated El Nino impacts in the past, but we have seen so many strange things in recent years with SSTs its possible the convection placement might be a result of something else

17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get similar blocking in a moderate-strong Nino it's going to produce. no more permanent SE ridge trying to wreck everything

You'd think but look at the 06Z GEFS at about 130-190, that is more or less exactly what we saw happen last winter.  You'd think a SER of that degree should never happen with that sort of ridging by BC...of course its only October but that is that funky H5 pattern we've seen a lot recently

It'll be snowier than last year, put it that way.  Probably not as bad as 97-98 or 15-16 (minus the one big event) but also probably not half as good as 09-10.  

Considering the WAR is underdone 98 times out of 100 these days beyond Day 5 this thing really probably has to be making a good north turn before 67-68W or its likely going to get very close at minimum

Hopefully this thing does not hit Bermuda.  Still think its highly likely it'll go safely west of it

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the system

There is still mid-level shear imparting the circulation. That being said, the core is showing a favorable environment for continued bursts of deep convection. So it's going to be another 24 hours of give and take as bursts of convection try to wrap up shear east and then north of the center, then likely get blown back and fail to wrap from 700 to 400 hPa levels. I'd imagine this will occur repeatedly as the LLC drives just west of Cuba and into the SE GOM. Mid-level flow values won't become more favorable until well into tonight. That is when we may start seeing more alignment and more pronounced intensification on Tuesday. Eventually, into Wednesday, the flow vector will become more dangerous for significant intensification all the way into landfall, hence modeling and the official forecast.

The timing of any intensification may end up not being ideal.   No doubt a massive blowup last night through today and tonight would have been better because probably an ERC would happen before landfall...it may now end up going through its peak cycle up until approach which is underrated as far as how well winds reach the surface.  A 130mph storm undergoing an ERC can cause less wind damage sometimes than a rapidly intensifying 105mph storm...we've seen this a few times in recent year.

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z EPS with a significant shift south and east. Got a bunch of members going right through Tampa Bay and even more just to the north which would push the surge right into the Bay. 

The UKIE looked to be on the south side of the big bend area too when I tried extrapolating it , mostly in that east side of those Euro ensemble packing area

40 minutes ago, Amped said:

Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.

I've said here a few times last 3 years...on anything entering the GOM just go on higher end most of the time...we've had a handful of cases where that failed but for the most part its worked.  I'd be surprised if this did not get to 105-110 at least...I'd stay away from Cat 3 or 4 for now but would be far from surprised if it did 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New record with plenty of flooding.

 

I believe they only need 2.04 on the day to break the monthly record of any day.  They are over 1.70 now

LAX now another .29 this hour so around .85 or so on the day