SnowGoose69

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

 Opposite (sort of) occurred 2/1979. Was expected to be mainly snow and ended up almost all sleet (4.2” also at KATL!!) after no more than first hour or so of snow.

I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed.  I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL.  I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies.  It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW.  I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No

It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade.  This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What a huge mess on the Euro. That would be an incredible ice storm. 

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf.  The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No signs of the southeast ridge on the gfs op. Just the tpv over our heads till the end of the month 

Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter.  the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively 

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

This discussion reminds me a boston met posted something about Logan airport went 4 years without a storm over 6". 1988 - 1992. I knew it was bad those years but I must have blocked it from my memory due to the trauma. 

 

 

NYC went 9 years without an 8 inch storm I think from 1984-1993, but some of that was bad luck and bad measuring.  The 7.6 inches on 1/22/87 had to be wrong based on EWR/LGA and some other random mesoscale bad luck contributed to that

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up.

So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs.  It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west.

I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern  

 

  

I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? 

Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie coming up

At minimum at the moment I like the idea of at least a close call near 160-180.  The main two ways it can go sour is probably first wave is too strong or the ensuing cold push from the Plains/MW is too strong and presses farther south.

43 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event. 

CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA.  Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there.  Might even be a tough ask for NC

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southeast of ideal. 

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

18Z Euro sure looks like it could produce some type of wave post 144..overall Euro/CMC have been flatter with the wave at 120-144, if that is not a cutter or something going into PA or WRN NY it increases the risk that the follow up would track offshore with the boundary more able to press SE 

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18

Euro has like 2 inches of FZRA in Florida lol

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, SG, they also lead to more below zero arctic outbreaks.  Are we close to entering another one of these periods? It seems like we've been in a +AMO forever (since 1995 I think?)

Some AMO periods have lasted 30-35 years I believe so its not surprising we are delayed.  There were signs a few years back it was going to flip.  I guess the WATL is colder this winter than recent years but we'd need to see a shift in summer months and not see well above normal SSTs

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are also cycling backs to a drier period as the historic all time dryness October-mid November period showed.  I strongly suspect we will get another period like that this year, likely in the early part of the summer this time.

Eventually the AMO will go negative again.  Those typically lead to less snowy/drier winters even if its cold.  Thats partly why the 80s were not terribly snowy, especially western parts of the metro.  Many storms in the 80s favored SNE/Eastern LI

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns

Models definitely are overdoing the -PNA long range, they keep trying to have a run or two every few days where they really tank it down to -1 then the average goes back to neutral or positive.  If the MJO wave weakens before it can strongly go through 3 and 4 its hard to believe we ever see this pattern shift, even in February which means sooner or later it'll snow but the 06z runs no doubt again have a look that favors the TN Valley/SE/MA more so

3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Easy over. That’s a band of 1-2”/hour moving across south Fulton now. 

Depends if they measure quickly enough when the flip begins, it can compact fast

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It's still a possibility, but at least Atlanta will have its first meaurable snowfall in just over two years. Charlotte's record 1,076-day streak without measurable snowfall should also end later today.

SNINCR 1/1 this hour so at least 0.5 or as much as 1.4 so far

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Last measurable: 0.1", Deember 26, 2022; Last storm with 1" or more: January 16-17, 2018: 2.4" (2.3" fell on January 17).

Will be close if they reach 1 inch, changeover line approaching fairly quick now.