SnowGoose69

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom?

I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile.  BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either.  If you see that you know they are not measuring there.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet.

I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"?

No it was the 06.  I believe ISP measures at the airport.  As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN.  There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too

Hope the EURO AI is right.  No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches.  Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120.  A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out

I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event.  But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.

CMC and ICON following the Eric Webb theory, he said he felt the boundary was gonna be slower to press east than modeled and hence we'd see a more bomby type low though he said risk the coast could be rainy if it was too slow

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's the icon

The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS.  This may be a bit crazy for the moment though

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

I think that event is another southern event.  The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one.  Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf.  The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries. 

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

 Opposite (sort of) occurred 2/1979. Was expected to be mainly snow and ended up almost all sleet (4.2” also at KATL!!) after no more than first hour or so of snow.

I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed.  I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL.  I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies.  It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW.  I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No

It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade.  This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What a huge mess on the Euro. That would be an incredible ice storm. 

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf.  The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No signs of the southeast ridge on the gfs op. Just the tpv over our heads till the end of the month 

Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter.  the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively 

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

This discussion reminds me a boston met posted something about Logan airport went 4 years without a storm over 6". 1988 - 1992. I knew it was bad those years but I must have blocked it from my memory due to the trauma. 

 

 

NYC went 9 years without an 8 inch storm I think from 1984-1993, but some of that was bad luck and bad measuring.  The 7.6 inches on 1/22/87 had to be wrong based on EWR/LGA and some other random mesoscale bad luck contributed to that

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up.

So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs.  It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west.

I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern  

 

  

I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? 

Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie coming up

At minimum at the moment I like the idea of at least a close call near 160-180.  The main two ways it can go sour is probably first wave is too strong or the ensuing cold push from the Plains/MW is too strong and presses farther south.

43 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event. 

CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA.  Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there.  Might even be a tough ask for NC

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southeast of ideal. 

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

18Z Euro sure looks like it could produce some type of wave post 144..overall Euro/CMC have been flatter with the wave at 120-144, if that is not a cutter or something going into PA or WRN NY it increases the risk that the follow up would track offshore with the boundary more able to press SE 

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave