SnowGoose69

CPCantmeasure might have work cut out tomorrow AM, this is a classic case where they'll come in with a crazy low total because the sleet will compact it before the 1am measurement

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Same here neighbor, sounds like it's starting to ping a little bit now though.

Its that small subsidence zone between the two intense areas, will probably go all snow again when that area in WRN SI up through N-C NJ crosses, after that clears I think it goes all sleet

This storm is doing what I said last event could.  Heaviest rates sometimes happen in the first area that sees snow just N or E of where the mix line stalls for the longest, sometimes areas well N and E who get all snow out of the storm never see rates as intense though they might get higher amounts.  We saw it in Philly about 10 years ago, they got 8 inches in like 3 hours but eventually went to sleet and rain.

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nyc going to get over 4

Maybe 3, I think its changing over soon after 10pm but there could be 2 inches this next hour for sure

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

Echoes drop off in intensity here soon so some areas may see sleet mix back in but then another area of heavier echoes could cross after 930.  I would say 10-1015 the sleet line will probably cross the metro, it should begin moving quickly near or just before that

Just now, Allsnow said:

In 45 minutes? 

That seems high but rates could be 12:1 right now, NYC has had .07 already so could be 1 inch easily here

KNYC 090137Z AUTO VRB06KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG FEW005 OVC010 M01/M03 A3007 RMK AO2 P0007 T10111033

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Since this has been analoged to February 8, 1994, I want to see if we get similar heavy snowfall rates we had in that very memorable storm. The thundersnow was extremely memorable in that event but those snowfall rates brought true whiteout conditions for 2 hours.

That was just a wave more or less along a boundary, no surface low.  Outside of that first 3 hours only like 2 more inches fell, but 6 or so fell in 3 hours

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

Even ABE is now reporting UP, but honestly the 12Z Euro showed them mixing by 01z, its just a question if the area from like SMQ ENE through the metro sees the sleet line stall

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

But there’s also a lot of precip south of where the NAM has it so that’s wrong too. 

It'll probably get in here around 730, maybe 745, could come down hard for awhile but its hard to tell just yet if it'll be sleet or snow, it could be like 70% snow/30% sleet

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet having a bit of a hard time getting N that far of I-80 in PA which might be a good sign for us. But if the precip is delayed we have less time in any cold air aloft. I’d love to believe the HRRR but it easily might just be on crack. 

Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period.  The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the nam gets this right besides being a huge bust I'll never doubt it again in this sort of setup. At least inside 12 hours. Not so much beyond that 

Current radar sure matches the NAM better than any other model outside of the Euro, most already have extensive precip to the PA/NJ border by 23Z and not much is there

7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is it even conceivable that the pan handle of Florida and the Gulf of America coast could end up with more snow this winter than CPK? I can't see it. I think CPK will definitely get more when all is said and done.

NYC will have like 9-10 by the end of tonight even if it’s mostly sleet.  They’ll probably still get close to 15-20 in the end 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The first wave is too far south then the follow-up wave is a cutter. 

The fact that Blue Wave is on the upcoming blocky period coming up is a good sign however. The concern would be suppression once it sets in like January. Check the below that's an intense block and by that time we lose our South East ridge..

We shall see.

 

I don’t love the pattern right now after 2/20, it has the look of cold and dry on alot of ensemble members.  I don’t necessarily see suppression just nothing on some of the members patterns shown 

Just now, anthonymm said:

Totally agree. I'm seeing a carbon copy repeat of Thursday. C-1" and then gross sleet. HRRR caving incredibly fast to NAM.

The HRRR on that run is just too late/weak with the precip shield more than anything.  It has the changeover still fairly late relative to the NAM

10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Lets not forget the precip shield that wasnt. That really was the deathnail. If it had came in heavy those amounts verify.

That was really the problem.  That shouldn’t happen this time which is why even if it sleet there is going to be markedly more frozen precip than last event   

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This storm event is already busting as the NWS prediction of a chance of snow this afternoon doesn't seem like it has a chance according to surface reports and the radar with not much on it

They only have a small chance in the grids from 22-00z which seems about right.  This will start between 00-0030z

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Question if you don't mind: how much do you use the 1000-500 mbar thickness 540 line "rule of thumb" for divining the snow/rain (or mix) line?  I think every model has the 540 line along/N of 84 when it's precipitating, even the snowy HRRR.  

In an event like this with massive mid level WAA I never really look at thickness.  I typically only do it for all snow type events where its marginal temps and then I use 1000-850 which until recent years practically no online websites even had anyway, you basically needed to be an NWS employee and have AWIPS til about 10-15 years ago to view it.  It usually works way better in a marginal temp event than 1000-500.  I think in the January 2008 storm the 1000-850 argued the area would see no snow at all.  I recall a MET posting that on the old forum

I'm becoming increasingly confident LI/S parts of the metro will see some snow with the Tuesday event, not likely over 3-4 inches but more confident a total miss won't happen.  North areas I think could see nothing.  Thursday IMO is rain for the coastal areas and maybe ice inland, Tuesday COULD have some impact on Thursday but probably not a ton because we get a temporary fail of the EPO and the trof out west which is going to allow that thing to dig for China and cut regardless. 

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm wondering if that's gonna depend on how strong the Thursday cutter is...

Thursday also gets impacted by what Monday/Tuesday does.  Not a ton, because changes with the EPO ridge in NW Canada likely allows so much digging to happen in the Rockies/Plains I think even if Mon/Tues does everything possible to flatten or push things more S that Thursday is going pretty far north anyhow, but for up here and SNE it can probably make a marked difference for Thursday, in the MA likely no. 

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

So all this hooey and in the end, we're looking at some sleet tomorrow and maybe nothing else for next week....am I getting this right so far?

We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event.  Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.

00z ICON barely even hits DC lol.  When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond

9 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

overrunning sucks. enough of these stupid warm noses. drop a ridge out west and give us a classic miller A coastal storm already

It needs to be an approaching system from the south.  Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big.  2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018.  They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.