SnowGoose69

Its quite amazing how much that SER feature has flattened from 2/11-2/13 the last couple of days, even for places way down south, its like 2/09 and 10 are now the only really much above days in there

One thing I have definitely noticed with the AI models beyond 120 is they tend to deviate less wildly from their ensemble average.  The GFS/Euro Op have been showing December 2015 like ridges the last 2 days late in their runs at times.  The AI GFS/Euro seem to look way more like the ensemble mean and that has been the case most of the winter.

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

I felt like all El Nino summers here have been at best average.  I just checked and since the 80s only 2002 and 2018 were above normal and that was by 0.2 and skewed mostly by August.  I was surprised to see 1991 was not above normal.  Its common to see places nearby like PA/OH average above though.  I assume 2018 may have been an issue with coupling as we saw the ensuing winter.  Makes me wonder if perhaps a sign an El Nino may not act like one in winter is a mild summer in the NE

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely. 

I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N.  Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp.  There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see 

Yeah looks late month to me.  Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February.  I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.

15 minutes ago, romba said:

Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise?

To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south.  Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west.  Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php

Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this

40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

Minus the EPS the 2/9-2/13 period has seen some tempering of the ridge over the Lakes/TN Valley area.  Beyond 2/16 its hard to know yet, some signs of a EPO ridge trying to poke back into AK on some of the ensembles again but the NAO looks gone, then again we've seen that attempt a few times too and its been wrong.

Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder.  Then it comes down to what happens with the indices.  If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done.  If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable.   Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms.  I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide.  One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain.  Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

What's the over/under that Central Park goes below 0 this weekend?

Unlikely with 850s of only -22.  It usually needs to be -27 or lower.  You can do it with much lower 850s but you need winds to be like 360-020 and probably have a snowpack

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM gives us a little light snow from this. Right now nothing else looks as good as GFS, but hopefully some other models will come aboard. Still something to watch for a potential light snow event along with Friday. 

06z Euro was reasonably near the idea.  This one may have a chance.  RGEM though which has been really good recently has nothing,  RRFS is a relative blizzard lol.  Its becoming clear the RRFS is more NAM bad post 48 than it is RGEM good post 48.  Inside 24 though I will say the RRFS is very useful and has been pretty good.  Its just to me worse than the NAM in the 30-60 window.

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was not expecting to see this steep spike in the AO!

Perhaps we go positive for a while until the SSWE kicks in in March?

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

13 hours ago, suzook said:

I got nothing, and expected nothing. I didn't buy this shit, especially after the screw job last week 

NW flow setups like that only work in areas from ATL on south if the upper level feature organizes much earlier across the TN Valley.  This one developed too late and was too far north.  The March 1980 storm was similar but the upper level low and trof developed much earlier and tracked more south.

Fort Lauderdale easily should have their coldest February day tomorrow, previous coldest was 55 in 1970.  MIA/PBI records go back longer so some days in the 40s in 1917/1900/1895 but both will have their coldest February day since then.  MLB is reporting -SN now but I think thats erroneous

ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988.  I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s

Jacksonville airport in FL Reporting snow...not sure if that is first time since 89 or not.  They may have reported it in 2010 and 2018.

1 minute ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Does this cold pattern bleed into spring and summer?  We have had a number of hot summers in the past 10 years.  Wondering if the mini split gets a rest this year. 

Most developing El Nino summers are cool in the East.  I'd expect if we see the expected transition to at least a weak-moderate El Nino this summer would be below normal

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most airports don’t do snow depth anymore. Consequence of getting rid of full time weather observers and going to ASOS in the 1990s. Airports that still have an observer on site will have snow depth. Guess BDL has one again. For a long time they didn’t. 

Some NWS offices call and ask the tower to measure, but not all seem to do so.  Mt Holly always gets measurements from TTN/ABE though neither has an observer anymore.  NYC though does not do the same at GON/HVN/FOK/FRG despite the fact probably they could get TWR staff to do it.  BOS/PHL/DEN/DTW all do not measure on the field for whatever reason so they never have SNINCR remarks or 4 groups.  My assumption is that none of them have good spots on the field to measure snow accurately.  They all use someone just off the airport grounds to do it.

ICON finally joined the party on this next system and doesn't have a bomb anymore

5 minutes ago, bckhd2 said:

I wish, lol. I’m inside the perimeter right next to I-75 and sun is out. We had a burst of flurries/light snow for about 30 mins around 9:15-9:45 but nothing really since. No accumulation yet

Airport web cam confirms it...these cases the downslope flow is fighting with the precip....I still think that period from 12-2 is when most accumulation is likely to happen.

GEPS/EPS have a bit of a hostile period where the SER connects to the block but it does not seem to last long.  GEFS does not have it at all or its briefer.  I think we probably hit or exceed normal snows before its all over though

31 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

@SnowGoose69any snow going to make it to Dunwoody/roswell you think? 

I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall.  There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good.  Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon 

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger. 

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

So am I supposed to believe the GFS or the 3K NAM? 

Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.