SnowGoose69

There is likely going to be an area near NYC or just south which gets  impacted the hardest as the front approaches and enhances the inbound TSTM area from the W-SW.  The HREF has been showing this 

HRRR continues to be pretty wimpy most runs, the RRFS has consistently shown a stronger signal and the FV3 GFS and NAM do too

The NAM begging for its retirement on 8/31 to be moved up with its forecast for TSTMs across the NE tomorrow afternoon

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, it had to have either been 96 or 97. Both were really cool summers (followed 3 very hot summers).

JJA averages (PHL)

1993: 78.2

1994: 78.4

1995: 78.6

1996: 74.0

1997: 74.2

97 was not bad, but that was probably because relative to 96 it had way more 90 degree days, but it was at least normal.  Most of the El Nino summers though were not mild.  2002/2009/2015 I don't believe were either.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino.  23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

The 18Z HRRR now looks like the Euro after 21Z tomorrow.  Probably no accumulation but it'll be snowing a day after it was 80

NYC is 79 now but the winds are starting to go more south now.

There is currently a 33 degree difference between Jones Beach and most of Nassau County north of the LIE

80 would be earliest 80 for NYC ever but I think they won't quite get there

Many places in N Queens/Nassau are reporting 32, had friends check though and they told me they are not seeing any freezing on the trees or any surfaces

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon further north for next week

6z vs 12z

The RGEM was headed that way too it seemed.

31 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could.  I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat.  Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.   

Might be some wild temp gradients if that heat wave verifies, probably mid to high 70s in NJ and maybe low 50s on LI.  Does not look like it lasts terribly long, another cold stretch could easily occur by mid month or slightly before

The Euro and AI both came north for late tomorrow, still more or less total misses but would be funny if GFS nailed another one

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I think euro AI has that swfe more north for all no?

The AI has suddenly gotten a bit shaky the last few weeks.  I'm to the point I am blending the GFS with the CMC/Op Euro because its been wildly flopping around with systems since about the start of the month.  

UKMET is basically non existent with it.  Partly because I am sure it has that first system at 90 way north and more amped than anything else does.  If that happens I think it increases the odds the 2nd one is flat.

This one continues to be incredibly complicated and now we have a subtle front running disturbance ahead of the main ejector too showing on all models.  That could potentially help pushing the main one more south but it could also lead to suppression too

26 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Wonder if everything starts bumping north again. These upcoming events weren’t always SOP specials on modeling 

The timing of the ejection is everything.   Anything from PHL-DC or BOS north could be the bullseye with that setup

Next weeks threat is pretty thread the needle.  Really need to eject the shortwave at the right time, otherwise you'll get suppression or a track too far north.

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Two wintry baseball memories:

- The Yankees April 7th 1982 opening day plus three more games postponed due to the April blizzard

- 1996 home opener on April 9, 1996 played in flurries with Santa in attendance

Somehow they still managed to finish by the the few days in October.  Researching a bit it looks like the players bargained for additional days off in-season.  That plus the lack of planned double headers means the season has to start sooner now I suppose.

1996 was when most of LI got 5-10 inches of snow.  I think it never really accumulated west of there.  Mets opener in 2013 or 2014 ISP had 5 inches of snow that morning, not sure it ever snowed by the stadium

I'd say we can toss Thursday now just about though in winters like this I would caution don't dump it totally.  Because this is the type of winter it'll find a way to make a comeback and we get a couple of inches.

Now the 18Z AI way south and the Euro lost it

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The 19.7 was recorded at 1PM.

As you say there was .15 liquid, which fell as snow, after that. 

They started well, they ran the race well they just couldn't finish the race. It's an old story that usually doesn't end well. Hopefully it's adjusted tonight but the 4:00 PM daily update still had the 19.7 so I doubt it.

I was suspicious of how much liquid fell from 2-4pm.  The 1-2pm made sense but I wondered if the ensuing QPF was perhaps melting of snow off the sensor or something as it seemed way too high.  I could buy they got 20.1 or something as it snowed decently from 1-2pm but not sure they realistically got anything after that.

10 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

1996 schools were closed 2 consecutive days. Monday and Tuesday.

NYC schools never closed til the 2/11/94 debacle.  After that they more or less close for any major snow event.  

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

always remember 98....no winter at all.

In general any El Nino, especially in today's climate of over 1.5 is going to be a fairly mild winter nationwide.   Even 09-10 was not all that cold, it was just narrowly cold enough to snow.