SnowGoose69

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and pop up showers are starting to show up on radar

Unsure how much TS we see, not impressed with the instability and the front is still back north...so far the few cells that went off made the mid 20s on tops but collapsed 

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Line really crapped the bed looks weak 

Yeah the HREF was onto that idea for sure showing very little TSTM risk east of about the mid point of NJ

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If that. Rrfs dries out the 2nd one as well giving us nothing

Yeah the HREF probs for TS here are not that high 22-01z...especially once east of  W NJ

Looks like 23-01z.  Some models suggest activity tomorrow well north of the mid-Atlantic activity, likely keying in on a boundary or subtle shortwave but I'm thinking tomorrow is dry 

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.

December 2015 somehow had it but that was a product of a wild raging MJO through 3-4-5 if I recall right, December El Ninos do tend to be warm but its rarely due to an SER

On 7/29/2026 at 9:49 AM, forkyfork said:

heat is coming back

I think a bigger concern there 8/12 and later on the ensembles is the WNW flow if the ridge sets up that strong over the Plains/Midwest.  That is going to send big time smoke into at least New England if any fires are still burning.

The area consolidating now over W  NJ and E PA near ABE is what most likely could hit NYC but even that might pass north of them...would need to see more activity fill in down towards PHL

Isolated cells now E of the main area might hit the NYC area or W parts of Queens/Brooklyn

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s the same people that call bust before an event even starts every time. They over analyze the radar instead of just letting things play out.

I think relative to what models showed yesterday this is more W-NW overall.  I think this initial around stays mostly Newark west now, its the activity post 22Z that may be more of a factor to the east.

3 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Everything is developing west of Philly and going too far north for that area. 

I'm thinking my area right on 78 is too far southwest for the heaviest.

Those areas more south will likely be hit later because of the surface low that forms.  You can see on the 3km NAM and HRRR that when that low forms in S PA later the precip explodes in those areas.

8 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Recent guidance targeting northern NJ for heaviest rainfall: https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/2082103580756971568

This event feels easier to forecast than last Tuesday since energy is more consolidated and its also arriving later and not during the AM.  

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is very impressive for Tomorrow

The HRRR has tried its last few runs to make it worse too, its delaying or not having that initial 15-18Z push.  I think the later it begins the worse it is.  Some models still have that period from 15-17z with showers which would probably mess things up somewhat.  The system is dynamic enough I think the evening would still be bad 

Have to watch outflow from that north cell, development could end up occurring into the city or north Queens over the next hour 

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year.
 

This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter

I'll believe we have a -PDO this winter when I see it.  Last winter was the least -PDO in quite awhile.  My hunch is neutral is the best we are getting on that scale.  I do think what Steve D/Joe B are harping on has some merit that the non Nino region SSTs being so warm is going to likely interfere in some form with the El Nino behaving as a similar type El Nino may have behaved back in the 70s/80s/90s.  That assumes IF those non Nino region SSTs are still that warm in Nov-Feb, but given they have been crazy warm like that for seemingly a decade now I'd assume that remains that way this winter.   I have no idea what that result is, it certainly does not guarantee it'll be 09-10 or 87-88 again in BWI/DCA but it may mean the winter is markedly colder/snowier than 15-16 23-24 97-98 82-83 were.  I just toss 23-24 in the garbage as it basically was a totally nonsensical strong Nino.  

JFK is the only reporting station other than ISP yet to get TS, would be amazing if somehow they dodge it the entire event but that cell 40 mi west might impact them

Maybe NYC/N Queens gets clipped a bit by this, there has been a bit of a right turn to it in the last 30 mins but still seems like its the activity near ABE and south that would hit areas south of those which have been getting trained so far 

That cell in C-NJ all by itself has to be watched to go tornadic over the next hour 

Just now, jm1220 said:

Looks like these storms over NJ headed for the exact same places nailed already. 

I don't see much til after 21-22z for areas south, that cell in E PA between ABE/LNS is the area to watch to see if more development occurs over time 

HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now.  14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours.  As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact.  

18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms 

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ?

AFD from KOKX

Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves.  If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad.  Thats evident on most of the high res models too.  HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one.  Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday.

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just like I thought.  Limited severe threat. We needed those hours of peak clear skies surface heating. 

At least the storms with the warm front were pretty good

Tuesday might be the day for that but still too far out

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

Mets/Phillies game may not finish, especially with Nola going the Mets may actually score runs and it likely won't be a fast game.  The VIS of 1-3 SM is moving south fast towards the park and should be there by 730-8