SnowGoose69

On 9/11/2025 at 10:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early.  Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter.  Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter.  Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

This activity might ultimately be going off a bit too early, may result in less convection in the end.  I still see no LTG strikes over NJ thus far or maybe just 1-2

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Thoughts for Suffolk south shore, mostly dry or strong chance it'll get wet? If it gets wet is that ^^ 2pm about right or will it be earlier?

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area.  There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.

LGA airport 1.25 this hour

NYC  142346 SPECI 142343Z AUTO 05008G19KT 010V090 1SM RA BR BKN008 OVC085        23/22 A3006 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0205 T02280217 
 

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Anlther sick hrrr performance of showing no rain anywhere in its first 2 hours…andddddd its pouring. Probably enough to kill any slight chance risk for tnite  

HRRR its last 2 runs seems to be getting the yips and being fooled a bit by the cloud cover from SW NY back through NE PA.  Its got notably less activity overall than it did 3-4 runs ago.  But with the triggering mechanisms in place I'd be surprised if coverage was not widespread anyway

On 7/1/2025 at 8:26 PM, Rjay said:

They should scrap the gfs 

Sucks that it sounds like the NAM is getting scrapped next year in favor of the new RRFS.  I am not too thrilled on this as the 3km NAM just blows away anything, even the Euro on WAA winter events.  No word yet on if they'll go the NGM route and let the NAM keep running for 3-5 years, just with no new updates or if it'll just be totally scrapped ala the LFM when the ETA came about.  Overall, the ETA changed forecasting a ton.  Up until 1994 when it came about, winter forecasting inside 24-36 hours largely sucked, especially when it came to Miller Bs or clipper/sharp trof cyclogenesis generating systems.   The Euro was not used much yet because it ran once per day and came out 12 hours later.  After the March 93 storm many began using the Euro/UKMET more as they both did so well at long range with it.  

43kt gust at JFK

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Huge downpour in Whitestone with very gusty winds, no lightning or thunder

LGT is being detected in the cell that formed just 5 mi or so E of LGA

50KTS at TTN

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m going to laugh when this broken line of showers comes through and drops .01” on the south shore. I mean, I’m not a degreed met but I could easily forecast the lack of rain based solely off watching the weather here for 20 plus years. Just cancel the flood watch. 

My main concern yesterday was the greatest instability was largely south.  Despite the fact we did get well into the 90s there was still indications that north of TTN less activity would develop

Fortunately the front was well timed.  I say that since I am working today.  Had this front been 75 miles further east 2-3 hours earlier we'd have had quite the TSTM day, but it ended up slower by a bit than what it appeared 1-2 days ago.  I think 00-02Z is the best window for most areas but the activity will likely be weakening, I have some doubts though it weakens as much as the HRRR is showing

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Argentina was the place to go recently to avoid all the record heat around the world.

 

Windhoek Nambia broke their all time record low 2 times over for June in a span of a week but its fairly mild now in SA and southern Africa after it had been cold for a couple of weeks 

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Severe or flooding? 

More in terms of coverage of storms and flooding than severe 

Tomorrow looks pretty bad to me, could be almost as bad a day as 6/19 was possibly

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nantucket is 90. 

Surprisingly 2 degrees short of the June all time record 

JFK might have a shot at 100 again if winds do not turn til 19z

Totally forgot June 2003 had a heatwave.  I swore we had no 90s that summer until mid August.  I remember being mad the day of the blackout was the only hot day the entire summer.

JFK 200 again, down to 93

LGA 100

JFK went back to 280 wind, now 102 again

Block Island I believe hit 91 which breaks their June all time record

99 LGA 99 FRG, could be a couple of late 100s

You can see that warming happening now in Queens N of the sea breeze.  LGA turning a bit more WNW on their wind.  Still think 100 could happen there after 330

I am surprised they hit 99 honestly, felt 97-98 would be it