SnowGoose69

The other rule now is whatever the UKIE Does the EC does the reverse    I swear its like a 80% correlation...so if the UKIE ends up over Cape Cod the Euro will be a whiff, used to be automatic in tandem but rarely the case last few years.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there’s still a lot more uncertainty in this system than many of us (including myself) are giving it credit for. That’s a huge gap between models inside of 100 hours. 
 

My gut still says this will not be south but you can’t completely ignore the southern solutions. I’d say you can probably toss the total whiffs but you may need to entertain the possibility we get something a bit more sheared ala the 12z NAM. 

There are multiple things really from progressive flow to small changes across Canada impacting it....I always say I trust the Euro more if we have an El Nino winter and a southern stream juiced system but in this case would not be shocked if whatever the Euro shows today or tomorrow ends up not even close to the end result because it can sometimes drop the ball on key features coming out of Canada that have a major impact on a storm

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EURO will be the tie breaker.

I always say lean Euro in an El Nino winter if you have major southern stream involvement but in this storm the flow is pretty fast and there are multiple interference factors that could come out of Canada so in reality we might look back in 4 days and find that the GFS or CMC ended up more accurate.

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’d expect the Canadian to be amped. Kind of weird 

I posted in the NYC forum the CMC has nailed the confluenced/grindied events many times before...I always get a bit nervous when its like this relative to the GFS/Euro if the result is shearing out of the SW or confluence...it seems to have somewhat of a history of seeing that better than the other 2 globals...March 2014 I think it was it saw it at this range with both systems that missed the NYC/SNE area.

Its totally anecdotal but I swear anytime we have confluence issues the CMC seems to nail the idea in the medium range...could be due to some type of added sampling in Canada perhaps but I seem to recall so many cases where we had squashing/meat grinder concerns on the table and the CMC was pounding the idea over the Euo/GFS it tended to have some merit in the end result.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre.

Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good

Main issue again though is not sure we have the air mass to tap even if the GFS at 18Z happened precisely in that way...the old DT rule was if you wanna go rain to snow near the coast here you better be -10 at 700 nearby and its not even close to that really...the other way to do it is a slow moving vertically stacked bomb but thats not the case either.

CIPS sure loves many events that bullseyed Philly or C-S NJ.  I would not be surprised with an end result where BDL gets smashed or Philly does and BDL sees cirrus...its really still possible anything in that range happens

Too many moving pieces and still too far out but if you're near the NYC snow hole this is by far the best chance at this range I have seen this winter for anything remotely significant to happen.  That said, this easily could end up another Orange County bullseye or Philly bullseye.

The problem we keep having this winter is too many storms keep happening right at the start of pattern transitions...that said, this one has a chance still to produce for the coast more than the previous 2-3 instances did

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C

 

Its main reason I have skeptical of any mod or strong La Nina next winter....it may not even be weak, I still think it ends up near neutral

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it....

Historically the stronger Nino March years have sucked but this winter has not exactly had the classic strong Nino pattern at all anyway

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time

There is going to be more SE ridging I think in the 2/11/-2/15 period than many think.  I feel some felt 2/13-2/15 would become prime time, and maybe for those in  NYC or BOS it could have chances but for the SE you probably are looking at 2/17 or so.  

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My main question is Let’s see if the pacific one again turns into something less and less favorable as we get from day 14+  to day 10 and more so inside day 7 , bc it almost reminds me of how last year heights kept being too high in the SW only to fall as we got Inside day 6-10 and shift a very good look To a so so one that worked for up and in . 

This is not me * looking for the shoe * to drop it’s really just picking up on what seems to be a trend this year regarding the pacific look deteriorating from day 15+ to inside day 7-10 on multiple occasions and wonder if there is something “in place” that i’m not astute enough to identify that models can’t identify (at this lead ) which favors such a future shift 

There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

The GFS/GEFS have hinted that there may be more SE ridging now 2/10-2/15 than initially shown a few days ago, if that happens its possible something could go occur there 

This change to me is way less likely to fail or be muted than the January change because its more +PNA based than -EPO/-PNA based...those patterns as a whole when shown in the longer range can alter slightly and fail or still lead to cutters where as the pattern on most ensembles for mid Febraury is not as likely too

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block? 

I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php

1 minute ago, George001 said:

This looks better than the setup for the 5th threat (that one looks dry everywhere, low is way offshore). Before I really get invested in this period, I want to see 2 things. 

1. No can kicking 

2. to not see any signs of the pattern breaking down on the long range guidance once we get to the short range

 

It actually moved up a bit over the past few days, so that’s a good sign. I think it will happen, but I’m more concerned about how long it lasts. If it is just a transient window that isn’t going to cut it. To get this winter out of rat territory we need this favorable pattern to lock in for a good month.

I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change.  I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup

52 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just noticed that NYC is at exactly 2.3" season to date, which happens to be same as the final snow total for the 22-23 season....so you're ahead of the curve already!

They'll probably end up somewhere between 8-14 inches in the end if I had to guess...still could end up another top 10 snowless..how we pull that off in a Nino is beyond me....

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Shut it down:

 

As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks likes we will go weakly into 8 if at all…

 

Def not loving these trends 

Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s always been around the 10-15th. how is there a can kick? if anything that stuff around the 6th went from an unabated torch to at least somewhat interesting 

Ensembles do now show a bit of a ridging signal 2/7-2/10 now which was not shown recently but lets remember the period from 2/1-2/7 7-10 days ago looked horrific compared to what it does now.  

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Until the strong Nina next winter 

I think its more likely to end up neutral than anything else

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is it thread the needle ? We have the PNA going for us.

Timing wise to have the high/cold air supply present and as far as deepening at the right time probably is

Closest comparison to this is probably March 15 99 as far as air mass and storm track, did not have the cards on the table for that til basically go time.  This is about as thread the needle as it gets.