SnowGoose69

Just now, MJO812 said:

They didn't update yet

It's not hard to see it

I think Upton/Mt Holly might still be cautious, even if the Euro drops more S....might see them go like 2-4 or 3-5 in NYC for the time being or along that general latitude 

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP.

The sun angle on 2/13 is not really a huge issue yet.  It becomes more a problem early March...15-20 days does not seem like much but it really matters...much like its so easy to see an accumulating snow event on 12/5 but very hard to do it on 11/15.   Not for same reasons but same idea how 2-3 weeks things change a ton

51 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Might be the first warning snowfall a lot of us in southern CT have seen in over 2 years, sad shit. NYC has an outside shot at it but BL temps there are pretty rough, but its possible

The MOS DPs look good to me, 28-29 on NAM, 32-33 on the GFS.  I have always in dynamic scenarios averaged those two and as long as your wind is counterclockwise of 060 you'll accumulate down there

I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact.

When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary

The DPs on the 12Z GFS and NAM do look cold enough for snow in NYC if the rates are there but we are still a long way off

4 minutes ago, bgmsnowman said:

Curious, I have to admit that I usually don't look at the 3 km NAM much for non-convective situations (for warm season convection it can obviously be good at times).   My impression of the 3 km NAM is that it should not usually be much different than the 12 km NAM, except noisier which often is not helpful for these synopically-forced system (lots of spurious detail which is often wrong anyway).  I am really surprised to see the big difference between the 3 km and 12 km NAM runs at 12z this morning.  I wonder if something is going on with the convection within that 12 km and 3 km NAMs that is making a big difference in the precipitation distribution.  Obviously the 12 km is going to parameterize convection, while the 3 km is going to have explicit convection.  Is there something going on with this case that makes that difference a much bigger deal than usual?  Curious to see people's thoughts on this.  Living up in the Albany area, I'm hoping that the 3 km is catching on to something, although to be honest I really am hoping for a decent snow down in NYC... you have suffered long enough!

the 3KM nam typically is just not good beyond 30, maybe 36.  I do not like looking at it for any meaningful purpose beyond that and the 12k NAM 48...even the RGEM til 30-36 can be spotty (as I said earlier I feel its tended to be too flat/cold the last 2 winters at this range very often).  At this range the Euro/GFS idea with tracks of the surface/id levels is where I like to focus and tomorrow AM I would definitely begin really using the RGEM/NAM

Just now, North and West said:

I was asking this the other day… if it’s bad, why use it?


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I usually do not take it seriously until inside 30-36..same with the RGEM somewhat...the RGEM has had a bit of a cold/south bias on these events the last 2 winters til the last minute...might be the same thing again but we will have to see if the Euro stabilizes/moves south a bit today

The RGEM last 2 years seems to always be too cold until about 24-30 hours out then it goes 30 miles north with the warm nose or R/S line.  I would not be surprised if we see the same thing again here but we'll have to see how the Euro sees things next 2-3 runs

The RGEM did not change a ton from 06z.  It did however begin to see the mid-level warm nose more...it does show more pellets now in parts of the area for a time.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like 3k usually owns the 12k.

Inside 30-36 it definitely does when you're talking about mid-level warm nose stuff...sometimes beyond that in events where you're all snow or all rain with no concerns about mixed precip I have seen it sometimes capture banding ideas or track better than the 12K but it seems to be a crapshoot on that

3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I like this a lot for north of 287/Merritt, though a large chunk of our area is gonna waste some of the overnight precipitation to sleet and mix at the onset with the warm nose above 850 and best diurnal timing.

 

This is a frustrating one for the coast, especially the island, but that's often the issue in marginal storms like this one.

I definitely felt 3 days ago they had a decent chance since I thought the confluence was just enough this might go 30-50 miles south of where the current average track is

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

12 k was colder and snowier than 3k south of 84 FWIW.

3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW.

3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic

In other news those inland probably can be less worried now as the RGEM seems to be catching on with its 18Z run

Just now, North and West said:

I’ve seen this movie for years… the NWS has a knack for either underselling a storm (I get an advisory and then they issue a warning *after* the majority of snow has fallen), or this one has the vibe of watch to advisory.

Who really knows though, right? It’s why we play the game. I think we all get a kick out of the fun surprises.


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They are not that far off really.  I think they might be aware N Westchester as well as N New London are not going to reach warning criteria in all likelihood but leaving those 2 counties out would be somewhat confusing to the general public.

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sne might not survive this rug pull Coming 

Its going to struggle to go more than maybe another 30 miles off the EPS/Euro IMO.  I do not think its going to go full NRN stream phase so its probably limited to maybe a 30 mile tick from the 12z Euro which is what I said yesterday, warning criteria southern edge at worst will go as far N as maybe 84.  I'd still be surprised if those places did not see 5-7.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone is getting watches except the City

This stinks

That watch is too far S and E IMO

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro EPS looks like.  I suspect this might bring people back from the ledges... for good or bad.

This close in its rare to see them be that different than the Op but given how much the Op jumped they probably will be somewhat south of it

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

earthlight also isn't worried at all. i don't know what that's about

MJO trend all winter has been faster than both the EPS/GEFS...closer to the GEFS...if that happens its gonna be a long while til it goes into 3-4-5 or anything of that sort and there is a lag of course.  I had said no pattern lasted more than 2 weeks all winter.  I still expect we get a solid pattern 2/14-2/28 then it probably flips to something else but right now the ensembles may just be rushing the flip a week early

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

in this winter you never know...LOL

Even Rayo who I think is a tad too far north with this has the accumulating snow with this down to NE NJ/NYC/N LI. 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this can still wind up being rain to albany

Meh.  Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so.  I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Look at where the 32/540 line is depicted. That’s a slush fest at best for the city and coast. I would expect a car/grass topper. 50 miles inland and above 1000’ is looking great for this one. 

Yeah as I said main problem here is once again its somewhat too early at the start of a pattern flip...you'd prefer the storm to happen 3-4 days later and we probably do see something next week but this is marginal even if it does take a track around the EPS average.  

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models.

I said my main concern for sure is 700mb is not that cold and system is fast so it really needs to be dynamically induced or you'd probably be less snowy than even the Op GFS snow maps depicted

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs finally gets a clue and brings the cold down 

Was about to post the same thing...first run where I believe its idea on the Op D5-9 is likely most accurate.