SnowGoose69

Yeah the 18Z ICON was like a Nemo redux, saved by a late capture but realistically that is a worse trend from the prior run

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Curious how the 12z Euro AI looked, is it out yet?

It was east

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern supports more of the same, this is another DC storm 

I think its a miss for DC if it misses the rest of the coast, orientation and everything to me argues if its not an across the board big city hit its more or less a miss outside of the Delmarva/SE NJ/Cape and Islands

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year. 

Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one.  I suspect this hits all the big cities or none.  Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs.

Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps.  Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior.  At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far

2 minutes ago, jimbo073 said:

What time is estimated start time for union county?

2-3pm

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong

It did not do too well with this last event, it was way south til the final day.  I've not followed it much beyond 96, its been good inside of that but not so much beyond

6 hours ago, mikeysed said:

I have a 345pm flight tomorrow out of Newark. I assume I shouldn't have any issues because especially in that location it would be starting for maybe an hour max and I can't foresee issues with delays. I would anticipate they want to get the plane out ASAP.  Thoughts?

Saturday schedule, even for a holiday weekend such as this tends to be light.  Might be a bit heavier than most winter Saturdays but that will allow them deice and move aircraft easier than say a Thursday or Sunday afternoon.  Also runway conditions will be good with no risk of poor braking or treatment delays 

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snow will probably fall but not much will accumulate south of I78. 

Mid level temps not great as WAA is moving in and not a whole lot of fgen signals at all.  It’s likely gonna be light rates with 8:1 ratios.  I wouldn’t be shocked if like .30 liquid falls but only 1.5 is measured due to time of day etc.   

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

With the primary low so far west, it will be pretty difficult to get a decent thump here in NYC. That's a strong warm nose, and then we get so warm that it turns to plain rain, and 1-2" of it. Considering temperatures will be warm tomorrow, and the wintry mix looks to start before sunset, I doubt anyone in NYC gets over 1 slushy inch.  Which means at Central Park, it'll be registered as a dusting.

It’ll come down to rates.  NYC should have the easiest time accumulating since it’s not a pavement jungle like the airports are. Temps shouldn’t get too high due to thick overcast, maybe 34-36 but the rates could be fairly poor where you’ll end up more 7-8:1

At the very least we probably do not have to watch DC/VA get pounded this time, the setup overall is not really conducive for that to happen.   Certainly Cape May/Delmarva the MA Islands could get hit while everyone misses but this one is more of a classic we all get hit in the major metros or we all miss

Basically as long as we do not totally lose the CMC/Euro/GEPS/EPS in the next 48 hours I'd feel very good.

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know, would I take a guaranteed 4" snow fall from this system, or trade it for a future bigger possibility?  I think I would trade it for what's behind the curtain...

I'm not sure thats a real possibility though, this is either a big hit or a miss.  I don't really see a scenario here where its like a 2-4 inch storm

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm trying to think of winters where we had many close calls and then finally got hit by a big one at the end of the season.  I can't think of any right now.

 

 

12-13 somewhat

This is still an ugly setup to me but it won't take major changes from what the Euro shows to be a decent event initially down to the coast.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately, someone always seems to be in a snow hole.  Winters like 95-96 and 02-03 are extremely rare, there were no snow holes in those winters.

95/96 I think was fairly snowless across the southern US.  Oklahoma to SC got very little snow despite how active that winter was.  93-94 was also the least snowiest winter ever in MCI and ICT I believe so you get weird anomalies all over even in good years  

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What is causing the increased frequency of intense blocking? We keep getting blocking episodes over the past few years over and over again so it has to be increasing. 

I remember a couple of years ago in the New England forum there was a block that failed and it was discussed how the block formed. Ie was it a true block or was it heat induced which is called a bootleg walk. 

The key point here is the bootleg block will fail more often than not as opposed to 2021 which was a true block. 

Also when is the last year we had two negative four standard deviation blocks in the same year? That has to be new or extremely rare. 

Liberty Bell had a good question which was why are we seeing increased snowfall in the Middle Atlantic especially at Delmarva while we are dropping. You mentioned I have to do with a fast flow but does that mean the delmarva's snowfall average will continue to increase while we decrease? The fact still remains that the Middle Atlantic is still getting hit as is places like Kansas City St Louis Tennessee so on and so forth. That seems to be increasing in the last few years. 

What happened in New Orleans in Florida was absolutely incredible having the largest snowfall in their histories so yeah I believe what I mentioned before that the higher what are temperatures are feeling more intense storms. Perhaps in the past it really was this cold in Florida and New Orleans however they receive more snowfall in this event because of the higher temps in the Gulf.

Doesn’t lack of sea ice in late summer tend to cause more blocking in winter or at least it’s believed to more often than not? 

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s linking up with the Southeast Ridge which didn’t used to happen with -AOs near -5.

 

It may also have something to do with the fact a storm closely preceded it too.  Hard to say if the system yesterday never existed if the SE doesn’t get as jacked and this next system doesn’t go as far as north  

I’m still suspicious of snow happening in that setup near the coast.  Winds from the south there would make that really difficult 

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Is that less or more 

Its actually .23, the 12Z run had .19, I loaded incorrect data initially

18Z Euro now has .20 at JFK

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Latest hrr worse, it’s completely on its own 

Yeah it has no snow into JFK til 0230z, that seems nearly impossible based on latest radar and movement.

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a forecast for 6-8

 

This is quite amazing, I mentioned that storm to a friend around the time of my post, he sent me this link off youutube.  The first weather segment is from the day before but you can scroll through and watch Joe Cioffi get progressively more nervous and eventually just mad about the forecast which appears its going to bust.  Who'd have known a broadcast from that day would be on youtube.

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

There’s some light returns popping up just south of jfk and south shore li not sure if it reaches ground though 

Snow has been reaching the ground almost everywhere once ceilings reach 5000-7000ft so its not taking too long once you get radar echoes over you

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Radar filling in off the coast 

Its steadily moving north now, its close to the 3km NAM's 23Z position of it, that had snow into JFK by 0030Z.  I still think that could be a bit too fast, even for just flurries.