SnowGoose69

And here comes the CT river valley dry punch.  Snow shield starting to slow as it approaches the metro but continues advancing over WRN NJ.  It happens every time

You can see the benefit of this being November here.  There is zero virga with this now.  Based on traffic cameras its already snowing almost to southern SI

Radar echoes indicate this should be pretty much solid moderate.  I still think the S shore may flip quickly by 21Z but the north shore of Queens and NYC could be frozen til 00z

Ceilings already 3-4,000ft, there won't be much virga with this at all

EWR wind is 360.  Both models had 070, even the 12Z NAM

Winds are still mostly NE in many areas that were supposed to be E.  The high is likely anchoring better than expected.

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

5pm near Paramus, NJ. Looks like all snow to me.

No way with that south flow that the 700-850 layer does not verify 1-2C warmer

DCA is still snowing though most guidance had them raining.

As of 11Z the GFS is clueless on wind direction having LGA already 060-080 and they are 040.  The NAM axtually holds LGA 050-060 all the way to 00Z which could indicate they stay frozen that long if cortect 

17 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

But isn't this synoptically different than the usual wrap around prediction scenarios? 

Not much cold air to be pulled in and it’s not a fully vertically stacked dynamic storm 

4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound?

It does often in western Suffolk in nor’easters but you need a 13C degree difference at least between the 850 temp and water temp for that to occur so generally it’s a system in the middle of winter where that occurs.  You will see places like West Hills sometimes have snowfall maxes during nor’easters because of this 

The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps.  Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050.  We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow 

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Guys at least half of what those weenie maps are showing falls as sleet or freezing rain. At a minimum they should be cut in half, then you need to take off more to account for melting in urban areas.

I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently.  Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere 

This event basically all comes down to how early it begins and how heavy.  I do like the angle of approach of the WAA as well as the lift.  It should result in coastal areas seeing plenty of precip.  Often in something resembling a SWFE the angle by which the system approaches and the sharpest WAA puts most of the precip too far west and north early on.  

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Eh. One could argue either way. Borderline leaning toward rain. Midlevel torch.

The winds directions on both the NAM sand GFS at 12Z are 060-080 for the most part which would argue it should go to rain easily at the coast and even NYC.  The NAM does show signs from 21-00Z of trying to back towards 040-050 again.  If that happens it could be frozen longer 

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this point, measurable snowfall, possibly even in Central Park, seems to be a reasonable prospect. Boston also looks to be in line to receive a measurable snowfall. The last storm to bring measurable snowfall to New York City and Boston in November occurred on November 7-8, 2012.

I checked the numbers today and since records began there has only been 6 days between 11/1-11/15 with over one inch of snow and 3 with over 2.  

The Twitter world is a mess with angry Atlanta folks in regards to no businesses or schools being closed tomorrow because “Irma was not even this close to here and you closed for that.”  Completely different setup for that one though.  I was amazed to see how many people remembered the fact Irma didn’t actually track anywhere close to areas it produced strong winds in once it dissipated to a TS. The general public usually isn’t that meteorologically savvy.  Especially after a year 

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

This thing is going to go into Ga. with a clear eye........

It’s also west of expected.  This could be a bigger problem close to ATL than orginally thought although it could still hard hook NE overnight.   Given the winds will be NE though and it’s at night I’m not sure effective mixing down will occur  

4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action.  I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm.  Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. 

I don’t know if there is any scenario at the moment where they see strong winds.  If it’s a strong system it means it was probably over water longer and will get kicked east by the incoming trof.   If it’s weaker it’s more west but probably isn’t that strong by the time it reaches there.   I guess there is a possible unlikely scenario where it comes ashore in 72 hours and undergoes RI and comes in as a 4 over AL or far west FL sand they get slammed but it’s not likely 

It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño.  It’s generally troffy  in the east.  It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup.  Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November.  I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though  

TWC has beem laying low the last few years but finally a moment today out of the blue.  Maria Larosa just up and left with no warning.  She never really said why outside of strongly hinting it was to spend time with kids but I found it odd when she said they were 13, 11, and 8.  That seems to be awful late in their lives to make that move, anyone I know who has done that it’s uusally much earlier on.  Hopefully it’s all good and they’re not starting to clean house again.  

On 9/13/2018 at 6:39 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Solar min. qbo went from positive in the summer into fall then nuetral at the start of winter, to negative JFM. -5 to -10.

 

If I remember right the stratosphere was an absolute ice box in October and November which likely led to the NAO problems that winter.  It was also insanely dry considering it was an El Niño and it continued straight through the next summer.  October 94 - September 95 has to be one of the driest 12 month stretches for most of the northeast in the last 50 years 

Maybe TWC needs to start sending these folks home that the worst is over?  Alex Wilson looks exhausted.  She had obvious bags under her eyes.  Probably didn’t get any sleep at all last night 

Damn.  MYR might be getting hit hard.  NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts

As it moves further inland you also have more deciduous trees or evergreens than at the coast where there are lots of palms.  Those will easily go down with 60-70mph winds and saturated ground.  A cat 1 in NC does alot more damage in NC than it does in Florida because mostly palms there