SnowGoose69

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have a feeling the CAA has peaked and the city doesn’t make forecast lows. I’m thinking 20ish in the park

With the light N-NNE wind late tonight they’ll probably drop quickly 

5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold?

We should.  The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains 

17 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What has caused the warmer SST?  Sorry if the question is basic

Basically a product of the warm AMO.   Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it.  We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so 

18 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

 

 

 

 

 I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm

Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago.  It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there.  I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN 

30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s.   Snow was so rare then

The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck.  We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

Most of those were in non El Niño years. I think that stat is heavily skewed by La Niña years which tend to be cold early like 1989 or 1996.  Though 87-88 wasn’t a snowy winter here I do believe it was fairly cold or at least near normal.   

Oddly enough December 1989 has no record low mins or record low maxes at all for Central Park yet it’s the coldest December on record 

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I saw a trace on the local climate data...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=FL&stationID=13889&_target2=Next+>

As far as I know the only times Jacksonville has snowed in the last 100 years is December 1989 and January 2014 I think and only 89 had measurable snow 

Just now, sferic said:

Uncle, if I remember correctly for 1972-73 Jacksonville Florida had more snow than NYC

In February of 73 there was a massive snowstorm in AL/GA/SC.  It was so far south I think Birmingham and Atlanta got missed but some places saw 20-30 inches  

Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps.  It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5.  

Tuesday is a pretty good example of a setup that is snow 4 weeks from now easily but isn’t this week 

On 11/15/2018 at 5:45 PM, Snow88 said:

The new gfs nailed this.

More models nailed it than we realized.  It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet.  I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know.  The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does.  Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2.   Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after.  That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

have a hunch this ends up being our biggest of the season

Unlikely given most of the factors in the long range and the enso right now

6 minutes ago, triniiphone said:

The park actually measured correctly? Wow!

It seems slightly low given the .79 liquid.  Newark has .88 liquid we have to see what their snow total is 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m not referring to weenie maps. I’m saying that forecasters should have seen how strong the CAD was. If I could see it, you better bet they can. Too many people hug the GFS. It’s thermal profiles are worthless.

The wind directions this morning gave it away to me but I still didn’t think it would hold on this long I felt maybe JFK to rain at 22Z and LGA by 00

1 minute ago, triniiphone said:

.64”? Lmao 

There’s a solid 5” right over in bedstuy and all they got was half an inch? Smh lol

 

.64 liquid 

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Looks like the Conservancy is off to a solid start, The 4pm snow measurement at Central Park was missing.

No surprise here.

Late last winter I thought they stopped taking that 4pm measurement if I remember correctly

.64 now in New York City.  This should be the 2nd largest daily November snow.  They might need to measure before the standard 7pm time though because any sleet and rain will compact it 

This is certainly the worst positive bust since probably 12/5/03.  There’s been some forecast moderate storms that ended up very big but it’s been awhile since something expected to be next to nothing ended up this bad.  I think it’s a bigger bust than 2/2008 

Newark now at 6 inches. 

Wow.  Central Park .25 liquid last hour 

4pm snow measurements were funky.  LGA reported 1.2 on .19 and JFK 3.2 on 2.5.  Central Park didn’t report 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Any official measurements in Manhattan? According to app its 34 degrees there

Climate report at 445 will likely tell us.  They’ve had .21 liquid so I would guess close to 2 inches although been more since top of the hour 

Funny how JFK is warmer than LGA.  That 070 wind is mild this time of year

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Have you checked the models?

The mix line is going to stall

It usually begins to slow down as it gets north of TTN