weatherpruf

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

With BL temps in the mid 30s on Saturday in the daytime hours a lot of this is not going to stick.

If it only sticks to grass and car tops that will be fine...its March and we aren't getting an arctic blizzard. Mood flakes at this point are a welcome farewell to a winter than never was, and a harbinger of nicer weather to come, we hope....and not a cold wet spring.

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised it's so quiet in here, especially with the Euro bomb for areas just inland of 95; here's a sense of the 0Z suite (didn't think maps were worth posting this far out as they'll change so much).  The 3/11-12 event is 4.5-5 days away and, as usual, we have very little consensus, although every model is showing a much more powerful storm than on Saturday. The Euro has a huge snowstorm north of 80 (1-2 feet of snow) and a huge rainstorm SE of 95 (2-3" of rain) and a lot of snow and rain in between on Mon/Tues (with major disagreement on snowfall between 195 and 80 on SV vs. Pivotal). The GFS has 1-2" just NW of 95 (with 1/2" of rain for the rest of us), but has several inches N of 80 and a major snowstorm for much of New England, while the CMC also has 1-2" just NW of 95 (and 1"+ of rain along/SE of 95) and 3-6" N of 80, but misses most of New England, and the UK has a few inches NW of 95 (and rain along/SE of 95) on Monday, but has a significant snowstorm for most of us (and 1" or more of rain along/SE of 95) from the coastal low on Tuesday (and a major storm for most of New England). More to track.

I think it is the fact that March storms rarely pan out for us ( at least the big storms ) in much of the subforum, along with fatigue at how frustrating this winter has been to date. I really will be surprised to see anything come of all this, but will be content with some mood flakes if they happen. So much has to go right even in the heart of winter that it makes the case that a good event at this time of the year is probably unlikely. But its fun to look at in the meantime; its more than we had to do all winter. Will hope for the best. Me, I've been distracted by my daughter going to Costa Rica for spring break for an ecology class, and worrying like fathers will do, while she warns me about all the deadly snakes down there. Yikes. What's an old codger to do? Hopefully some snow will distract me next week. Cheers.

58 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I'll take it and move on to spring.  Given how this winter has gone and the late date, you have to be realistic.

We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready.

Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago....

Another band coming down now. Wasn't expecting that. Very nice winter scene.

Car topper here. Maybe 2? Not bothering to measure, too minor an event. Will take a walk before it melts. 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Exactly as I remember them-- the first event favored areas away from the south shore and the second event, which was supposed to be better, ended up being a disappointment because a lot of it was eaten up by virga and ended early.

Had just gotten married....went out with my wife and her girlfriends because they were from Colombia and really hadn't seen any snow ( my wife came here in 1990, and its true, she hadn't seen any real snow in that time; she wondered what all the fuss over winter was about ) and some kids she was babysitting. It had turned to rain but this was perfect for snowball fights and building a snowman ( ok, snow person ). Fast forward, those kids are married with kids of their own, her friend moved to Brazil, and our two kids are grown and finishing college and grad school.....so I'd say this was a really long time ago.

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better. 

I have never seen a clipper do much more than a dusting here, and often nothing comes of it. Clippers are all nowcasting as far as I'm concerned. It does get some people riled up when they hear the word snow, however.....this may be a case where Mercer sees something and Middlesex doesn't. That used to happen; people would drive in from Trenton and we'd be looking at them complaining about snow and wondering what the heck they were talking about.....

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

As always it depends on where in the forum you’re talking about. It’s a pretty diverse area winter weather wise. 

For NYC you only have to go back to 2017 and 2018 for substantial March storms and in the case of 2018 a significant April snowfall in the city proper.

In 2017 Central Park had 7.6 inches on March 14 and in 2018 there was 8.4 inches on March 21 and 5.5 inches on April 2nd. 

For March 2017 and March 2018 we in the northern suburbs, Orange County in My case, had over 20 inches from both the March 14 2017 event and the March 7 2018 event in which the Park only had 3.2 inches. 

I realize March is fickle especially on the coastal plain, but we don’t have to go back that far for the last substantial March storms. 

I'm talking about my area just outside the city; over ten inches in March is very rare. Of course in your area it is different. Again, would love to see even a 3-6, 4-8 event before the curtain lowers. Anything more would be exceptional. And well, cursed by every other normal being in the area, but hey its March, if it snows nature will take care of it. Will be keeping an eye out here to see what happens; right now long range locals calling for 40s and rain. Anything can happen in March, we used to say.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Clippers are rarely anything to fuss over here; sometimes in a colder winter they can give us some nice mood flakes on top of a snow pack, but often they fail to do much, as you no doubt realize.

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We never had a huge storm before?

Not very often in March; it was only 2017 when we had a huge bust...I'm not sold on March events, with good reason. Still, I would love to see even a smaller event at this point.

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

It never gets old I am like a kid on Christmas Eve when these snowstorms hit and stay up most of the night ,,,,,I am even flirting with taking a walk in the snow right now 

Thought about it as well, but its raining here. Heck with that.

Pretty much a slop storm here.  Really waiting for spring now. Shouldn't have put gas in the snowblower but did not fill it thank god, and could use the leftover  "prescious juice " ( maybe some of you will get the reference ) for the car. But I had to see if it started; these machines can be fickle and you don't want to find out they won't start at the last second. And the electric one is dicey in heavy wet snow, plus I'm not crazy about using it in snow to rain situations. No official local cancelations I've heard about but some professors at RU in New Brunswick opted for online today, students told me Newark had closed. Retired so don't really follow, and still gotta take my son to the train station. Not sure if Trenton had anything to speak of.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I will take pics 

What are you expecting there old friend? We're looking at maybe 1-2 here if that. Really borderline for this event.

Really effin close too. I was just in New Haven yesterday. They're looking at 6-8. It's barely 2 hours north. Heck Morristown is looking at 4-6. What a slap in the face. Always too far south or too far north.

25 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

we're going to snow for sure now we have consensus on pretty much all models unless you're south of tom's river you're not getting any snow otherwise 2-4 to nyc, 3-6 nyc 4-8 hudson valley


.

Nothing is ever sure when it comes to snow. I have had heavy snow warnings canceled a number of times; seen blizzards canceled more than a few times,  and seen snowstorms refuse to move beyond a certain line despite warnings for heavy snow, leaving us with nothing at all. And those were all sure bets until the last minute. This here isn't even a "storm" as far as I can tell. Will be nice to get something out of it, but it sounds like even if we do, rain and warm temps will make quick work of it, so we better get out and enjoy it early if something happens.

24 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

we're going to snow for sure now we have consensus on pretty much all models unless you're south of tom's river you're not getting any snow otherwise 2-4 to nyc, 3-6 nyc 4-8 hudson valley


.

Well I have someone in Brick who wanted to know. Sounds like they don't have anything to worry about.

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

48 here

I was just outside in pajamas and t shirt putting stuff away in the shed. Sky is clear. I do not believe this will be anything at all here.

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in Middlesex county. Hopefully you will not get much less since you're slightly south of my area. 

The cutoff will be around Woodbridge. Always is, whether the storm is north or south.

42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. 

Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area tomorrow night? That's what I'm thinking right now. 

Same. Just got my first batch of zuke seeds in; couldn't find the self pollinating types in the store this year. If i use anything but, I get very few zukes. But I won't plant them til late May. Broccoli can go in much earlier. Don't bother with cabbage anymore. Too cheap in the store. 

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's during the day. Storm comes at night 

Wondering why they kept repeating this...heard it at least a half dozen times with no mention of snow at all, any time. No mention of sleet either. 

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we'll thump for a few hours and go to sleet/light rain. But a degree will make all the difference. 

Wet bulb temperatures will be key

Local forecast is 43 and rain.

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon 2 inch line down to middlesex county 

I have always regarded 1-3 inch predictions as basically nothing, which is usually the case in these setups for our area unless it is really cold. At this point I will believe it when I see it. Some years you get lucky a lot, other years everything fails to come together. No secret where we are this year.....

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event. 

I wouldn't hold my breath. 2-3 inches in a marginal set up for us usually means bupkiss. 60 years experience here. Sleet always arrives more quickly then expected and spreads further than expected. If there is any ESE wind then anyone who is within driving distance from the coast isn't seeing much. Hoping to see a miracle.

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total. 

I'd rather nothing at all than sleet, but its somewhat better than freezing rain. It will at least look like winter out.