weatherpruf

1 hour ago, North and West said:

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The only memorable line in that whole mess of a movie....I don't even consider it one of the Godfather movies.

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

If you're getting the moderate to close to heavy bands we're in now and others who also have had little snow this winter appear to be in, get yourself outside and walk around in it.  It's a beautiful day - yeah it sucks that most of it has melted, but even falling snow with big flakes is very cool to see and we might not see any more flakes until next winter.  Or 2026.  

Yeah took a walk in the local park. Nobody there but me and a squad car. What he was doing there I have no clue. Maybe enjoying the flakes.

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Starting to stick here

Probably sticking in the hills just across 22.

5 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Does 3" on a table on my patio count? My lawn has been totally white for a while in the non swampy spots too.

Yes, absolutely.

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best wind/snow combo of the winter 

I don't think I remember seeing it snow so many hours and so hard with nothing OTG. But it is snowing.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes me wonder how April 7, 2003 and April 2, 2018 worked out so well...much harder rates than this?

 

2018 was at night IIRC. Also had a weirdly snowy March, even if it didn't work out for a lot of us, but that one did. 2003 I remember starting in the daytime. It was heavy wet flakes and came down fast. Paste job. Lasted a day or so too. Was also a big winter that year, which is when we tend to get April events.

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

I'll make sure the sump pumps are working.

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

33 here but even that's not good enough with moderate to heavy snow coming down. I knew any model run showing an inch of snow for this area would be wrong because it's not accounting for the mid March sun angle. This situation would have worked at night. Or during the daytime a bomb of a storm in the perfect spot like a couple of those NAM runs showed the other day. That would have worked, lol. 

It has been snowing all day with the sun clearly peeking through the clouds, and not a flake is sticking anywhere. Close the books on this winter already. My son had a delayed opening with the state, I told him, there will come a day ( and I've had them ) where the weather will be clearly dangerous and no one will let you leave early because someone up the chain isn't paying attention or doesn't care. This happened to me in Dec 2003. An actual big snowstorm, poorly modeled in CNJ, and the school super out of town, whilst administrators chased us through the halls threatening anyone who was able to leave early because they had no classes or were non teaching staff. A week later we got hit again and do you think they had learned? Nope. An icy situation left the parking lots a skating rink and lots of injuries. But hey, today there is an emergency....I told him be thankful for the delayed opening and extra sleep. And of course, there was the milquetoast warnings about Ida last year, resulting in tragedies. My wife was stuck on 287 most of the night due to flooding. 

I don't know about other areas, but over here as long as that big round sun is poking through the clouds, aside from the breaks of blue skies this morning, not much is going to happen here other than flurries. 

Sun breaking through with flurries. Delayed opening for state workers in Trenton. Seriously. I guess a lot of the live in Sussex.

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one…..

No, not at all. The major media outlets at no time talked about anything but rain and some light snow here; in 2001 there were days of school closures and many graphics of 1-2 feet of snow all over tv from Philly north; one guy had to get out of Dodge ( Philly ) after that. There was also steady light sleet during the buildup to what never came. This has been nothing big here at all so far and was never thought to be by those who actually practice weather forecasting for a vocation. 

December. You don't want snow in Nov, its a bad luck signal for the rest of the season.

For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. 

33 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

A 6 inch+ event for NYC was never really likely. I still think we see some accumulations, 1-3 being very likely, and don't think 3-6 is totally out of the question.

3-6 would be a very good event at this time of year for NYC. 

20 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all. 

You also have to take history into account. March is a well known month for busts even in a good winter in areas just outside the city ( yes I know some places have slightly different climo and that does make a big difference ) but in general I'm skeptical of big snows in March IMBY. Never seen one. By big I mean 18 or over. I consider 4-6 a big event in March around here. 10 is huge.

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@weatherpruf getting into it!!!

Always bear in mind I am completely clueless. I don't deny it. A man's got to know his limitations.....but damn wouldn't that be a thing of beauty if it verified? 

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Holy...

I think people would justifiably lose their sh!@ if this happened. Even 6-8 would be a huge story for us in March here. Even 3-5 would be a welcome sendoff. 

I've decided to do the reasonable thing here; that is, the thing one would do, hopefully, in most situations; see what the experts who do something, in this case weather forecasting, for a living, have to say. Well, they say rain for all but a few slushy inches NW of the city, but that it will be a messy storm and a headache, but they don't seem to be worried about snow. I come here for contrary opinions hoping they might be right, and sometimes, like the Boxing Day storm, they are. But overall,  it seems the die is cast here. Still a little uncertainty and I have nothing going on this week, so we'll see. Be safe out there.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about that, but that very rarely happens this late in the season...that is more likely in January and February.  Don posted something on that yesterday, about how you need colder temps in March to get accumulating snow than what you need in January and February.

Today is a good example down here.

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

See, I don't need snow to experience a massive historic storm.  The most impressive ones actually don't have any snow with them (or very little snow at all.)

December 1992 will always go down in my mind as the greatest coastal storm of all time for this area.

What's going to happen on Tuesday can be historic without a single flake of snow being seen here.

 

That was a very destructive storm and I cannot root for anything that bad. We were stuck in the school and I had a classroom full of 7th graders with no power and a school district that wouldn't let out early. Ugh. The boats in the marinas were all over the place. We lose sight sometimes just how bad these things can be if flooding is involved, something we can usually avoid in snowstorms. I would not want a driving, flooding rainstorm at this point. Have mercy. 

17 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The above QPF map is the result…. .5”-1” QPF from North Carolina through DC, Baltimore, philly… 1”+ in ENJ, NYC, and SNE and damn near 1.75” for LI

Completely different evolution than every other model. I know it’s a trash model but good lord. 6z GFS by comparison gives the mid Atlantic near Virginia and Maryland 0.1 of QPF.

Crazy how it can be so wrong only 2 days out. Perhaps it’s a lack of data.

You have to consider what is likely to happen in this region at this time of year, and in a winter where it just doesn't want to snow. Smart money is we can all start prepping the soil. Already did. Some things that are red flags you will see in comments: " it will bring its own cold air", " there will be backend snow", "it's really close""it can snow til April "( July for certain folks here, and I love em all, don't get me wrong, even the ones that are mean to me ). Nonetheless, i'd like to see something happen as much as the next guy. 

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Of course they are, but the point remains that the NWS said all rain and we have 3 models saying quite a bit of snow to fall, even if it doesn't accumulate...

It is steady rain out, and I had discounted this event completely ( have thrown in the towel on this winter awhile ago ) is there supposed to be a changeover to white rain? Headed out for a walk rn.

Nothing but rain here, and not much of that either.

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be fine in March too if the west coast was not having their 95/96 winter. They were due.

What they are getting is way past our 95/96. People there are seriously being harmed by the snow. I heard a guy on NPR saying he can't get fresh food and the supermarket roof caved in; and his roof is straining. He said it is not fun. Price you pay for living in the boonies where there is one supermarket and not enough road crews. I'll take the city, thanks. Except during hurricanes and tropical storms.....

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong.

1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly

2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time

3.) TWC has all rain even up here

4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy

5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot

6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB

7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm

Now I am usually 99% optimistic,  however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO. 

The UK just had a bunch of snow...kinda late for them and don't know if it is due to any anomalies affecting us, but it seems like it wants to snow everywhere but here. March storms almost always fail to deliver for a lot of us even when they are frozen, so watching this and fully expecting it will likely be rain if anything.