weatherpruf

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total. 

I'd rather nothing at all than sleet, but its somewhat better than freezing rain. It will at least look like winter out.

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Should I take the snowblower out of the box?

No you will jinx yourself. Wait til it snows then wrestle with it and try to get it working. And then it probably won't work....

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results.  Thanks for your update. 

Hit the magic number in Dec myself. hard to believe. Most folks are shocked at how old they actually look ( Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise have photo shop, and private trainers, surgeons and chefs to help them look good at 60 )according to research, and only get it when they see their former classmates and such; its reminds me of the classic scene in Papillion when Steve McQueen pokes his head out of the opening after being in solitary for months, and says how do I look? Yeah, you like fine pal....

1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

Some folks getting mood flakes today. So far all I’ve got is mood salt that the town put on the street. 

Son is at the Bronx zoo and saw flakes, daughter is at a pet expo in PA near Harris and it's snowing there. Nothing here; sun peeking out. Pretty typical even in big events to get somewhat shafted over here.

Holy crap...I forgot all about these topics.

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM shows the risk for Mon/Tues….it absolutely torches the midlevels. Gives 1 inch total of snow even up here in Rockland. Yes, I know the NAM isn’t good but in the past, it has done a pretty good job of picking up on midlevel warming/warm tongues where no other model had it. Has this as a ping fest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023022506&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

In crap winters we usually can eke out a sleet event. This might be it. Don't care for sleet, rather not see anything or just rain.

29 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger? 

That was all sleet. Nothing to write home about. But even that winter was better than this one. It's not even been cold enough to sleet much. Saw something about ESE winds. That's rain.

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end. 

I check in here every morning for curiosity but really, this winter is a dud and nothing will change it. I fully expect this to be much ado about nothing . Worst winter ever for winter weather fans in this region. FWIW, I read an article that MN is having warmer temps and more snow, as are the Sierra Nevadas. Experts said this may actually be a bad sign and that even they are getting close to a tipping point; we may have reached ours, and perhaps our snowy winters in the 2000's were due to something similar. Unlike some  ( not here of course ) others, I frankly admit I don't get the science and rely on more knowledgeable folks to opine, but this is something I read and it was not in some rag and the experts quoted seemed to be serious people.

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.

It snowed a few inches near Augusta ME this morning, but even they are way below normal if my info is correct.

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

Yay a cold and miserable spring with possible pity snow 

 

White rain that maybe sticks to grass, which is already growing. No thanks.

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Perhaps...but trying to promote a culture that destroys the American pioneering spirit and self-reliance is casuing the decay of civilization...

We're not going to have to worry about civilization if the planet keeps burning up. A bug flew up my nose as I was exiting my car just now......it's the middle of Feb....

5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I saw a wasp flying around today, lol. 

I was testing a new fly zapper outside today. No problem finding flies. This is unbelievable. Like that famous Twilight Zone episode.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch we get hammered in March 

Rain doesn't count.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This weather really makes me want to get out there and start the garden with cool season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. Obviously have to wait until late March for that though. It'll probably be colder then than what we're having now. It's gonna be 65 degrees on wednesday. 

It will be cold and wet as soon as you plant peppers and tomatoes and eggplants. This is usually in late May when it should be pretty warm.

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

It was mostly a dud for my area anyway; this part of NJ is not the spot for March snows.

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2

He's a full on crackpot at this point. 

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

WIll be tough  Wed and Thu with record highs being a bit higher than forecast in NYC/EWR/LGA but still a chance in some of the NYC/NJ area.

We're done here. Neighbors lilies are budded and ready to bloom. I've seen stuff like this in the 90's, but never with the buds on them already. Spring is here. I was just outside changing soil in various flower and veggie pots. Full of active worms, pillbugs, other creepy crawlers. 

25 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Going to be a bad allergy season this upcoming spring, not looking forward to it.

I cannot remember when it was not a bad allergy season. Ever.

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Beautiful sunrise coming up Don, all the colors are out this morning!

 

Red sky at morning....but I'm out of the boating business these days...

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That's still a science degree though, there's a difference between that and some 19 yr old on Twitter....

 

Granted. But as I've pointed out in the past, meteorology is not a licensed field, so in fact anyone can say they are a weather forecaster, and some over the years have been good at it. 

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes...I was going to add this too.... people without college degrees should not be doing forecasts.

"Weatherperson" shouldn't be a thing.

After all do we let people without medical degrees make medical diagnoses?  I guess we do, but they are more likely to be charlatans than anything else.

A 4 year science degree should be  a A REQUIREMENT for anything in STEM, including meteorology.

 

Yes, we do let people without medical degrees make diagnoses, and have done so for a long time. NPs, PAs, and even MSW's can make diagnoses. An MSW, LPC, PsyD, LMFT, can make psychiatric diagnoses, and file an insurance claim. Oral surgeons and dentists can diagnoses oral diseases as well. Optometrists can diagnose eye diseases. Chiropractors make diagnoses, but then we really are talking pseudoscience......

It isn't going to snow in any significant way this year is it? Maybe we can get a few slushy wet inches in March. It would be something. Happened in 92. Long time ago. 2019 had two late ones that evaporated as well.

49 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

I had 21" from snowicane in Astoria, Queens.

Astoria is not a suburb of NYC.

51 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

It was called the Snowicaine, and it wasn't 20 inches in the immediate NYC area; more like a foot. Some areas got the higher amounts but not CNJ. We had between 8-13 around Middlesex County; Woodbridge reported 8, Edison reports were of 13. It was decent but overall the whole winter was disappointing for us compared to the Mid Atlantic, but it was absolutely a great winter by this years standards....it was said that the NJ suburbs of NYC were " too far north for 2/6 and too far south for 2/26..." we made up for it the next year though. I think those big winters might just be over for us, but who knows. Certainly DC has had nothing like it since.

A number of homeless walking in the mall this morning. Good thing this one is open at 5 am. Couple of local gyms inside so they open the doors. Allows me to get in a walk in bad weather. Man, it was frigid. My sinuses stung.