weatherpruf

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Sleeting right now

Not quite sleet here; not pellets anyway. More like a less fine snow. Weird.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

They must be forgetting the storm after Sandy when we got 8-10 inches of snow in Nassau County and over a foot of snow in Central NJ

Oh I remember it alright. This one is performing better for us over here. Also not as heavy a snow as that one, which was the last snow until Feb that year...

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 4 pm, 5" here in Metuchen and still snowing moderately to heavily, although smalller flakes (had huge flakes earlier). Looks like 6-7" is possible with the snow/rain line looking like it's at the border of Monmouth and Middlesex, at least 1-2 hours away, I think. Just shoveled and I rescind my earlier comment about it being heavy and wet (made from just driving through it) - it's more "standard" to me - maybe 10:1 ratio snow - can make snowballs, but it's not soupy by any stretch

I'm really surprised. It wasn't bad with the old two stage ( i've got a new single stage on order it's actually over at Sears, but not tonight ) and the dog loved it. They even let us out a little early, putting me in the unusual situation of leaving before some of the students, whose busses were delayed. Didn't have much trouble getting from Fords to Colonia, but the off ramp near metropark was snarled.

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah when an inch is expected and you get 2" in an hour things get messy.

They are out in my town and they did pretreat. Our property taxes at work...

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least social media hyped this so most people weren't caught off guard. Sad to say that's where most people get their forecasts these days

Props to all those like Anthony and a few others here who thought this thing could perform. It really has. I'm eyeballing around three maybe four. Looking better than most of the storms in these parts than last winter....no changeover yet. Nice front end dump. My only concern is a superstitious one; in years when we've seen significant Nov snow in these parts, it has been pretty uneventful the rest of the winter. In 2012 we did get some of the Feb blizzard, but in 89 IIRC that was it for the year. Means nothing, I know....

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Until the EURO reverses I would say 1-2 possibly 3 for NYC area in some lucky spots and 2-4 locally 5 NW

Like I said.....other than the time of year being a tad early for snow, 1-3 is not something to get all hot and bothered about, especially if a lot of rain is gonna wash it away. And I doubt it will be that much. Yet I have people at work expecting 5-8 inches in the Middlesex County area so that's what happens in the age of social media.

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

The mid level warm punch will break some weenie hearts tomorrow. 

I don't think anyone reasonable expects much in the immediate NYC area. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

You don't have to worry about that

This winter is going to rock

Just ordered a new snow blower. So I'm ready.

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Why are you always negative? LOL

TBH, we were just outside most of the big storms last year in our area. I have seen snow in Nov, heck we had significant snow in Nov 2012 right after Sandy, with Freehold getting 13 inches. Maybe Unc can check this out, but Nov snows seem to correlate with less snowy winters IIRC. Let's hope for an interesting winter. 

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

I would just stick with manual ignition. one less thing to break haha

I never use the electric start, as the machine won't start in the cold with it. But most units have it now. 

41 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

An 18" storm just gives you the pleasure of clearing 6" three times.

 

The slushy storms we get around here are no pleasure to clear! Forget the end of the driveway, slushy water and ice that freezes overnight. Well, the best insurance against getting big snows to buy a new snowblower....

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The duration of this snowier regime may be determined by the speed of transition to a warmer state in the Arctic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States.

 

Excellent discussion.

7 hours ago, Cfa said:

This strange spike in snowfall amounts has been insane. As much as I loathe winter, it’s been interesting to observe such an abrupt climate shift.

And I guess it’s only a matter of time before more 2011-12 style winters begin to occur with greater frequency, I wonder if it’ll be as abrupt as this uptick in snowfall has been.

Could be the warmer climate shift. I've read the increased moisture is what might lead to these hyper snow storms, delivering to areas that were not snow meccas when I was a kid, places like Monmouth County.  

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Honda is the best but very expensive. Toro is the workhorse that the everyman seems to have.

I have a two stage toro manual start. 

Steep hill...self propel works great. 

Am leaning toward the Toro after reading a lot, but I like the easy access Honda has for the spark plug.Just tried to start my old 2009 MTD and can't easily get to the plug. I am exhausted just trying to start it. Someday engineers will make an electric model that can throw snow with power and isn't all cheap plastic that will fall apart. Until then, we're stuck with gas. Once you've been around a few years, you can spot trouble before it starts. The smallest toro has a cheap plastic lever for the choke. Now you just know that ain't gonna last. Gotta admit, my little electric toro still runs after ten years, but every bolt had to be replaced. here's to lots of 6-10 inchers this year ( over 12 is too much for me to deal with anymore! )

I know it's still fall, but the Oct Noreaster ended the fishing season and it feels like winter. That said, anyone have a suggestion for a single stage snow blower? Getting too old to move the two stage around, they are great for moving snow ( as long as it ain't wet ) but hell to turn and back up. Plus they can't get into smaller places. Every model I read about has issues, from Toro to Honda. Leaning toward Honda, but the chute is FUBAR from the reviews I've read. Figured enough snow weenies around here would have a suggestion.

On 11/1/2018 at 12:09 PM, bluewave said:

A really nice surprise for birders in Central Park.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/31/nyregion/mandarin-duck-central-park-pond.html

 

 

My son came home with a picture he took of it. I didn't know what the fuss was. He's an ecology major at rutgers, likes to go to the Park and stops at the zoo for an hour or two.

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Surfers do not like onshore gale force winds, the ocean right now is a washing machine. Offshore winds are ideal with calm or very light onshores second. The further north Florence eventually makes it the more influence it will have on turning our winds onshore.

Based on a high end cat 4 heading generally in our direction there will be huge surf here later in the week. Swells of that magnitude lead to washovers that flood beaches and anything near the beach front. They also cause a good amount of erosion. So this storm will definitely be a high impact event for local beaches.  

These storms throw up huge swells even when they are well offshore; even tropical storms can do this. It's the one thing I get seasick in. This storm is gonna hurt, not like it will to our south, but there will be impacts. For reasons that I never understood, the fish turn off in these swells. Don't if the bottom becomes unsettled or what, but they just shut off. It's actually been bad enough the last couple days and today's storm is no slouch.

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d be hedging on it ticking a little to the right near NC as well given the models being biased a little SW so far and the possible reorientation of the ridge. The Euro has been steadfast though on a landfall on the NC/SC border, which I’d always go with over the GFS. Still a minor chance IMO it doesn’t make landfall and turns right/stalls just offshore. No one wants 30” of rain over a swath of VA/NC so hopefully there can be a shift that can dodge them something of a bullet. 

We can hope. Even so, no matter what it does, these coastal easterly winds are killing the fishing season here. I guess the surfers like it. Gotta be some hazardous undertoe out there.

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model. 

Indeed, 1-3 for NYC. They are professionals too. They have as much claim as the others. So I don't know what to expect in reality. If its 3 inches for the city then everyone is right. Though they are still saying 4-7 on WNYC today.

18 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Steve D big change
 

 

Not gonna pan out that way

He's not too different from NWS really, he is justa little too far north with the1-3 area. Bring it down to a little south of 95 and he'd be in line with them. He could very well be right though

3 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

Interesting read: http://www.stormhamster.com/e011318b.htm

Good discussion. Thanks.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run.

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

NYC

27.5...1-24-16....-0.890

26.9...2-12-06....-0.537

20.9...2-26-10....-1.299

20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719

20.0...12-27-10...-1.533

19.8...2-17-03...+0.654

19.0...1-27-11....-0.944

17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865

17.6...2-12-83...-0.690

17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126

EWR

27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719

24.3...1-23-16....-0.890

24.2...12-27-10..-1.533

22.6...2-4-61......-0.126

22.3...2-17-03....+0.654

21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537

20.4...12-12-60...-0.078

19.0...2-7-78......-0.865

18.9...1-27-11...-0.944

18.2...3-19-56...-0.225

JFK

30.5...1-24-16...-0.890

25.8...2-17-03...+0.654

24.1...2-4-61....-0.126

21.7...2-12-83...-0.690

20.7...1-8-96....-1.719

20.2...2-10-69...-0.678

18.1...2-5-61....-0.126

16.7...2-12-06...-0.537

15.6...12-27-10...-1.533

14.5...12-20-09...-2.111

LGA

28.2...1-24-16...-0.890

25.4...2-12-06...-0.537

23.8...1-8-96...-1.719

22.0...2-12-83...-0.690

19.0...2-5-61...-0.126

17.3...1-27-11...-0.944

16.5...2-17-03..+0.654

16.1...2-10-69...-0.678

15.3...3-4-60....-1.095

14.9...12-20-95..-1.581

ISP

27.8...2-9-13....+0.219

25.9...2-7-78....-0.865

24.9...1-27-15...+0.235

23.9...12-20-09...-2.111

23.7...1-24-16...-0.890

20.1...2-12-83...-0.690

19.9...2-12-06...-0.537

17.8..1-20-78...+0.234

17.0...1-8-96...-1.719

17.0...2-10-69...-0.678

 

 

 

From what I see here, in central NJ, we need a neg NAO for a big storm. The storms that were not during that phase busted here but delivered to CT and LI. Seems clear evidence to me. Of course, anything is possible I guess.

Whine and groan all you want. ORH has many posts debunking the denier nonsense that you post. 

I can't find serious scientific literature that refutes AGW. I have looked. I don't count folks like JB or weathermen who deny the science, it's clear they don't have enough credentials to be taken seriously. We are in deep doo doo....

Whine and groan all you want. ORH has many posts debunking the denier nonsense that you post. 

People just don't wanna believe it because it is, as someone once said, an inconvenient truth....