weatherpruf

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how this happens all the time. What's the point of tracking a storm over 120 hours out , heck even 84 hours.

None. This has been like a broken record for two years now. At this point I will wait til after something happens before I get interested.

8 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Speaking from a snow weenie’s perspective like myself, there’s been so many head fakes and disappointments the last two seasons that I’m waiting for the proverbial rug to get pulled out from me once again. I know eventually the snow drought in NYC proper will end (I live in NE Jersey), but until that happens I can’t help but to have a skeptical approach with each threat that shows up.

 

You'll know this years long snow drought will end when you get a decent storm in Dec. That's pretty reliable. Yes you can get storms in other types of winters ( Feb 2006, Jan 2016 ) but a winter like this one almost never produces if it hasn't by now. You can get some events in March, late Feb that are gone as fast as they fall, and be happy with them. I don't see it this year, because it always finds a way not to produce. 

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Enjoying the drier pattern here this week for as long as we can get it. It was the first time I walked on the grass and I didn’t start sinking into the mushy ground below in a while.

or have the dogs track mud all over the house.....

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Older people seem to be much more sensitive to cold weather too.

I've maintained friendships with people who loved the cold weather when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s, but once they hit their 60s, they can't stand cold weather anymore (with or without snow.)

 

i'm 61 and yes this is true. I worry much more about the ice, I am much less steady on my feet, and it hurts a lot more when I fall, and it takes a lot longer to recover. 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s definitely a move for a younger person that is in a more adventurous phase of their life. I can remember how difficult it was  for the elderly back in my Long Beach days. Especially during winters like 93-94, 95-96, and 10-11. Many people couldn’t get out for days and had to have neighbors or friends bring food in or shovel their walkways. Most of the older people couldn’t wait to get to a warmer climate for the winter which was very understandable. There were few very hearty souls into their 70s that would be out in all the most extreme winter weather. I would see them down on the boardwalk or in the beach. 

And in the emergency room.....

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's been beyond bizarre. A 2 week blitz of hardcore winter in January, then almost nothing else but a few brief shots. A friend of mine who does plowing & salting (Detroit area) has had 30 billables so far this season (no idea what exactly that means lol), with 25 of the 30 coming in that 2 week stretch in January.

He should take up landscaping. 

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Which is why I developed the Snow "triangle" for the greater NYC metro area...

Many people would put "bad luck" in that spot....most people hate the snow. I come here because these are the only people that complain about lack of snow.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We discussed the origin and fate of the universe, mass extinctions, organic farming and climate change lol.  "Only in New York (subforum)" would you get such a diversity of discussion lol -- especially when the sun hasn't been out in about a week and there hasn't been any significant snow in over 2 years.

 

And cockroaches. 

5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry.
So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome.


.

Not when the data is overwhelming. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

My favorite was actually the one that happened in early April, did you get anything from that?

About 4 inches.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

These are the same people who don't think there is anything wrong with pesticides, meanwhile they are circulating through our blood and killing off pollinators. And now we've found the carcinogen 1,4-dioxane in our drinking water.

 

Well I'm no big fan of pesticides, but we would have some massive crop failures without them. But you don't have to use chemical pesticides; there are alternatives. Have been for years. Could they be used on an industrial scale? My daughter, who is an entomologist, says it depends. Cockroaches were ubiquitous in NYC until Combat came out. They never developed resistance to it. So what are they doing now? Developing an aversion to sweet tastes....roaches are coming back.....

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I don't buy a snowy March either.  I could see the cold lasting into the first week of March if it has already been well established in the second half of February, but if we have to wait until March to see cooler weather, it will just be cool and rainy, which we've already had.

 

In the "great" March of 2018. my area only had one storm that delivered the goods; one was white rain, the next barely cracked 3 inches of slush, and the las tone finally, after like a whole day of waiting, delivered around 8 inches. March might have snows, but they are always a swan song....

5 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Sorry, I don’t subscribe to this world view. I certainly don’t see the “mass extinction” that is taking place right now. I think humans will be just fine, not really worried about it. I just want a few good snowstorms and I realize that we are stuck in a pattern but it will eventually change and balance out.


.

The thing about science is that it is true whether you "subscribe" to it or not.

15 minutes ago, NCPOW said:

Posts like yours are why I enjoy this forum. Posts like the one you are responding to is why this forum can be extremely frustrating. Very long time lurker here who sometimes posts OBS during storms. I got to say, the repetitive subjective and negative posts with no sound basis are becoming very tiresome. 

Well, this weather has been tiresome, so you're gonna see that.....as I sit here on yet another steel gray, dreary day. Must be good for vampires.....

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be interesting to find forecasts for some of these old storms.

I was too young to remember anything about 1978 except there was a lot of snow lol.

I remember the forecast before  the April 1982 blizzard was for 6-12 inches of snow which was amazing.

I thought the forecast for February 1983 blizzard was for 12-18 inches of snow but that might have been once the storm had already began.

There were several busted forecasts of 6-8 inches of snow  in the 80s that never happened.

There were 0 10" snowstorms after February 1983 and before March 1993.

That was a 10 year and 1 month period with no double digit snowstorms!

 

Jan 87? Seemed like at least 10, but that was CNJ. But yeah, 6-8 inches was a big storm. 78 was like 17 inches and it seemed like the apocalypse. I was 15 and the snow was up to my waste. That was the only snow days I would see throughout HS.

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what.......

Pretty hard to get excited after two years of this, and if you live by me, really 3 years because 2022 was only marginally better. 

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

As the saying goes even a broken clock is right twice a day. Keep saying the same thing and eventually they'll be right. 

I'd take a bet they will be wrong. Maybe it gets a little seasonable. Don't gas up the snowblowers just yet.

16 hours ago, North and West said:

.

One of the great character actors of our time, Stephen Tobolowsky was a talented baseball player who suffered a serious illness as a child ending his hopes. He also played in a band when young with Stevie Ray Vaughn. A true genius, you have seen him in Memento and Groundhog Day and many others. he has also collaborated with David Byrne. He is an author and director as well.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How do you still remember this storm lol.  I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good.  I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.)

 

I remember it. Heavy wet snow. A few inches. Didn't last long. But it was snow. Think it was a Saturday? 

9 hours ago, George001 said:

We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards.

I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be.

I just remember 2007 La Nina being one deluge after another and maybe two sleet events in Feb. Sucked. It has sucked for a couple years now, though. Hope we can at least get a sleetfest going one more time before spring. 

10 hours ago, NCPOW said:

Beautiful GSP. I miss the hell out of mine. 

I'm a poodle guy myself. Don't laugh; they are the smartest dogs out there and you will forget you are dealing with a dog, that's how uncanny they are. "Poodle" means puddle in German; they were bred to retrieve birds from water, hence the funky haircuts. Neighbor had two magnificent long hair German Shephards, they were always getting out and drinking from my koi ( well now just goldfish; got tired of feeding the herons expensive fish ) pond. They'd knock you down and lick you to death.

50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Last 8-9 years, hard to bet against the warmth which always seems to be longer and stronger than expected....

I'm no scientist but my experience of 61 years is that if you have not had a good event by mid-Feb, you ain't gonna get one. Actually, mid-Dec really....there are notable exceptions and that is what we can hope for. If not, I break out the fishing gear. 

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

my god that really was one of my top 5 craziest weather events

People will think its just great. Trust me. I'd say they'd break out the shorts, but if you have noticed, many young men wear shorts all year now. There was this whole article on it, with teachers saying they all know a couple of these kids....accompanied by a picture of a young man shoveling snow, in shorts.....later that day my daughter's boyfriend showed up...in shorts. This is recently. I have an entire arsenal of boots, lined pants, socks, waterproof and insulated shoes etc. Despite all that and slathering a bottle of moisturizer twice a day on my skin, I go to bed itching all winter. So some warmth will help my suffering I guess.

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. @MJO812 did you even look to see if p6 was cold In February? 

So do we challenge for 80 in Feb? What the hell ever happened to winter....

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

this was a "super clipper"

 

And then the 2006 Feb KU and really, we did not see much for a few years after. 2007 was lean, a couple events in 08 and 09, so it is not unusual, even in a snowy decade, to see lean years. Maybe not as lean as 2020, 23, and so far 24...but lean.