weatherpruf

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold. 

I'm selling most of my winter boots online. 

48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 

When I hear the local forecasters saying " COULD be 1 or 2 inches" I know not to pay any more attention to it and hope for another event another day, which hopefully won't be 3-5 years from now LOL.

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3".

That ice was worse than I expected and I'm still chopping out. It also cracked my windshield. I had to dig out my scrapers, I didn't use them last year. I did nothing to the windshield, it had a tiny crack but was cased in ice. I turned the defrost on and went inside. It was cracking further driving my daughter to work, you could hear it. Went from an inch to clear across the windshield. Gonna cost me.

23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There’s so so so much more too it then that. The bunker population is enormous now feeding all the sharks (and I have caught plenty of southern species) it’s more about the rise in water temps. Winter flounder and lobsters are cold water species, they are moving north. 

 

Flounder are no mystery. They are overfished. Lobsters are definitely moving north. Interesting story, after the April 82 freak blizzard, the flounder in the bay migrated into the Raritan River, looking for warmer water; spring sun can warm shallow waters faster. Seen a few April snows, but nothing like that one. Suspect most here are too young to have seen it. Here's hoping we see something Friday; you guys have gotten my hopes up too much lately....

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anything having to do with overfishing has to do with humans, you see this problem around the world, not just here.

blaming sea robins is lol worthy.

 

The seafood industry has been trying to promote sea robins for awhile now. It hasn't worked. They are good eating, for the little meat you get from them. Besides, I have a soft spot for a fish that talks back to you....urp urp....

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I still say late 80s to early 90s was worse than the late 90s, because we already had great winters in 93-94 and 95-96 so we had that to look back to.... looking back from the late 80s was only mediocrity during the early to mid 80s.

 

Had some blockbuster events though....the Jan 82 storm that brought the DC flight down into the Potomac, the April 82 blizzard, followed by the Feb 83 blockbuster....then nothing til Jan 87. That was it for the whole decade, really...

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period.  If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.

In other words, I still don't need to take the snow blower out of mothballs.....going for that incredible stretch from 97-2000 where I didn't use it once and the hoses dry rotted.....

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Usual rule with IVTs they go north late, not a surprise the last 24 hours we now see it focusing closer to NYC than down in the MA as it initially was

I only remember one of these hitting near me, March 2013, and it was melting as fast as it was accumulating. Around 4-5 inches. 

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

I miss winter flounder dearly.  The tastiest of the flatfish.  They just won't enter the estuary waters in great numbers anymore, and their numbers are also likely down for one reason or another.  

 

However, last year during spring blackfish season, I accidentally caught one.   Quick thinking on my buddies part lead us to change up rigs the next trip out and drop from small long shank rigs with bloodworms on the periphery of some of the wrecks we were fishing.  To our surprise, they were stacked with winter flounder.   (Barnegat)

 

(Sorry to derail...)

That is amazingly good news! You will also see them on the wrecks offshore all summer and fall...with roe in them, so they must be spawning there. The downturn has to do mostly with commercial overfishing; they have tried to blame sea robins ( I am not making that up ) but honestly, you don't see them like you used to either. I last fished Barnegat  in 96 near the power plant, where the flounder were in the creek ( nuclear flounder! ). But we always had much better fishing in Raritan. All we have in the bay now is stripers. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Boating season starts in 3 months, days are getting longer, lots to look forward to…

I used to be flounder fishing the Shrewsbury River the last week of Feb in the 80s. Sadly they are nearly extirpated and scientists don't think they will recover, but I caught one in LI Sound last fall while porgy fishing.

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

Got it. I don’t recall the year, but I remember being under blizzard warnings, only to watch DC/PHL get crushed, as we watched the wall of precipitation literally sit 20 miles offshore to the south. 

The infamous 2/6/10.

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

We just seen how much this storm came west right up until yesterday. In a good spot right now I think

I hope it won't be as lame as this one. God, people are snow starved here. it never even covered the grass here and, turned to rain, for a prolonged period. I consider it garbage, like dozens of events in the 90s. And the rain is making walkways hazardous. At least I used some of the salt I've had on hand for 3 years.....I don't expect much these days but boy was this disappointing. Hope it was better where you are.

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

1 1/4" snow here in GarwoNJ) and the town plowed, after salting twice.  That's two separate OT for the taxpayers for 1" events.  Unprecedented.

Send them a thank you note. Worst accident I ever had was in half inch of snow in 98 in March, when no one bothered to salt or plow. Live in a place with low taxes, get low services. Taxes are the price of civilization. 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a couple inches here. Good to see the grass completely covered and a wintry scene for once. There should be some more especially on the north shore. The mix line looks to be just off the beaches. Temps still in the upper 20s so still more nastiness to come. 

Couldn't get the grass covered here in NJ. Not a huge bust but my son had a conference moved to Zoom today.  I should have worked for the state....anyway looks nice out, gonna take a walk and then decide if it is worth shoveling/ snow blowing or not ( it isn't now ). Dogs don't like the snow; the old guy has arthritis and the new pup is a fair weather dog.

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The streak is over for those areas! 

Big snows!

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope.

Don't even think about taking up ice fishing. 

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

except the drier air is already eating away our totals...

Too dry, too warm, to north, too east, too south, suppressed.....I mean there is always some reason to expect less than forecast. I can count on one hand the number of times my area jackpotted or got more than expected. I don't get worked up over anything less than 5 inches. My only worry is people haven't driven in snow for a few years now and they are likely to be bad at it.

12 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Would have been packed. 25 years ago schools rarely closed, the trusty 7 train took my mother around in all sorts of storms and blizzards, and the idea of banning travel would have been ludicrous. 

Now we live in a world where everyone with a twitter account and an ounce of power feel the need to preemptively declare an emergency, tell us how this setup is more dangerous than anything before, and use both those reasons to take away the right to leave the house from hours before an event to hours or days after.

Cant wait to see my kids school delayed 2 hours for 3 inches of snow on Tuesday because Westchester never saw snow before 

I gotta disagree here. We know better now, and nothing is so important that it can't wait, except for medical and essential workers. School can wait, can be done online, can be made up. Yes we drove in the bad weather in the past. I got stuck in the heavy dump in Jan 87 that was not well modeled; I never saw snow come down like that. I drove a Chevy Monza, rear wheel drive on an 8th of a tank. I could have died. They let us out at 10 am from Piscataway. Took me 4 hours to get to Woodbridge. In Dec 92 I got stuck teaching a class all day with no power because they didn't think to cancel classes with a huge storm coming. And, we also have demonstrably worse weather now, witness the pics above in Metuchen. Nothing personal here, I just don't think the risks are worth it. 

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

People would have showed up 

Which is a good reason it was rightfully canceled. It's a kid's game, and not important enough to risk lives for. 

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

So the models are wrong with 1-3 for the coast and maybe more if it comes west? 

Your posts doesn't even make any sense .

They might not make sense but I would bet against snow at this point. I'm not getting excited for 1-3 anyway. Those types of events often don't deliver even that much. Need something better, Ant. This is getting ridiculous. Might as well be living in Atlanta. Cheaper living at least.

12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

Haven't seen a foot of snow in 3 years. Haven't seen more than 6 inches. 

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I wish the timing was more night time. 1-3 urban areas in day…eh

I never break out the equipment for 1-3 around here; totals here are almost always on the low end so I'd expect a little more than a dusting. Just can't get it together the last few years, and it is on here that I have always read to throw in the towel after Jan 15. Well, we got two days....there was a recent article in Nature that said snow loss is nonlinear; when the tipping point comes you just lose it. Are we there? Don't know. The person who summed up the article talked about this then turned around and said the article was mostly about snowpack, which is different. Whatever the case may be, there are parts of my 2019 Craftsman that are dry rotting already. Not sure if its worth replacing at this point.

33 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I personally love events like this. Just enough to make everything look pretty outside and coming down at a rate slow enough that the roads don't become a nightmare.

Seems like all we ever get now is either 8 inches or more or 2" of rain. I'd much rather have 10 of these events than just one blockbuster storm all winter.

That all said, little concerned with temps here right along the Shore. If we stay cold, expecting about 2" here.

I haven't seen 8 inches here in years.

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Not to derail but Canada Goose is an overpriced fashion brand. They’re very warm but also obscenely expensive. Can get a better made down jacket that’s as warm or warmer from Feathered Friends for a fraction. I’d take Arcteryx over CG too, or Patagonia. Expensive still, but more technically competent than CG’s offerings. Just IMHO. We went into a CG boutique in Reykjavik this November and the price for their parkas were absolutely laughable, was like $2500 for the women’s warmer variant. 

You can see those prices at Bloomie's in the Short Hills Mall....I remember reading about a working class kid who went to Harvard....they gave him 100 bucks to buy a coat, as he didn't have one. It's apparently a Harvard thing. The other students said like, dude, just go into town and get a Canada Goose...he said he didn't have the money; they said dude they take Venmo...they thought he just  didn't have cash.....you can get a coat for 100 bucks or even less to handle winters at Harvard, but probably not for the temps in Edmonton.....

1 minute ago, WIN said:

YeH, I go back to the 60s, memorywise. I grew up in Maryland, and yeah the same there. When we moved to NJ in the early 70s, it was Bob Harris, Frank Field an Tex Antoine.

Bob was real good IMHO. Too bad he held himself out as a Met, when he wasn't. Frank Field just followed the NWS, no disrespect to him at all 

Tex Antoine, well we know what happened.

Frank was an eye doctor, hence the Dr Frank Fields....making it sound like he was some sort of PhD in weather. Dude lived to 100. Even son Storm is retired at 76.