weatherpruf

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Puking….

 

We rip 

It's pretty slow going out there. Just got back. Traffic is moving ok but you aren't going anywhere fast. Lots of plows and salters out on rte 1. Side streets are a mess. Good day to stay home. I was the only maniac walking the mall just me and the homeless and the maintenance crews. 

Just now, Allsnow said:

Feels like a classic February nor’easter. A lot colder then I expected for this storm 

What are you looking at over there? Heading out into it now near Menlo.

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 6 am, it's still 33F and we have almost 1" of snow/sleet on the ground with it being all snow sinsce about 5:30 pm with moderate snow falling now (nice dendrites). Going to need more intensity (more than 1" per hour and we've been less than that), though, to get more than 7" by noon, when things wind down.

Well it better, cause this here ain't gonna do it. Already seeing areas to the north doing better than expected. Gonna take a walk anyway and enjoy the day. Keep us posted.

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll still be tough in Midtown to accumulate but the colder places in the city look to get crushed. And I think up near I-84 should still be good since there’s very often a northern fronto band with good ratios. 

I remember in Feb 2010, the first storm, not the big one later, they were showing a bunch of slush in Midtown, not much happening. Next day though, in CP, I took a walk and it was nearly a foot of snow; someone made a snowman sitting on a bench smoking a cigar.....

4 minutes ago, Greg g said:

So I had a flight tonight from Orlando at 8pm landing at LaGuardia at 10:30 that got canceled.

 

the airlines rebooked my flight at 8:00am going to Atlanta… I then leave Atlanta at 10:30 getting to LaGuardia at 12;45… will it be fine by then at 12:45??

Probably not. It's gonna be a long day. Enjoy the wonders of airport cuisine.

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

That might be an indicator the south tick is legit since I believe HRRR had been one of the more NW models? 

Don't know what people are worried about or how good that depiction is, but that's as good a look as you're gonna get. But doesn't mean it will happen.

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t think so, I think you guys are set. Monmouth / northern Ocean going to be too marginal temp wise, at least from the soundings I was looking at. 

If I see a couple flakes on the grass I’ll consider it a win. Hoping you guys get the goods though, positive changes for sure. 

If only the airmass was a bit less crap this woulda been fun for me too, but oh well. It’s been extremely warm, not unexpected. All the more if most of you see a significant storm out of this it’s a massive win with how things have been going. 

oh I'm in Woodbridge, we are always marginal; too far north when Monmouth is the jackpot, too far south for north and west action. Too far west for eastern storms; I've seen eastern snows stop at the Hudson. Once in awhile we get a jackpot....Boxing Day and Jan 2011, Jan 2016. But even very big storms can shaft us here. People don't always believe me but in March 2018 all but one storm was an effective miss here. People would be arguing with me but I could look outside and nothing much was happening due to subsidence or dry air, and if it ain't that it' s mixing.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess they want to use remote learning instead of going to waste.

It's all about funding. Missed days must be made up or you lose funding. There were few snow days in the 80s so it didn't matter much, after 94 it became a problem, and after Sandy and Snowtober districts started doing away with some holidays; President's Day was a 4 day weekend for most of my career, and many schools had Feb breaks. With the violent weather the past few decades, and power outages that force closures even outside winter months, they had to limit some holidays. After Covid it became apparent you could say school was technically open even if a LOT of the kids logged on and left or didn't bother at all, but you wouldn't lose funding. Been retired for a few years now so I don't know how many hours they have to be online, I believe it's a half day schedule.

Just now, mikem81 said:

Both south of 6Z runs at 12Z

So....who wants to bet Freehold ends up with the jackpot?

4 minutes ago, Kjtc1979 said:

I heard they had to walk to and from work and school during a blizzard.  Uphill. Both ways.

Seriously, with technology now allowing WFH and the fact that most of us are expected to be accessible outside work hours via mobile phone and email, it's silly not to play it safe and pivot to remote work for the day.

Educators know that half the kids are out on days that snow anyway and they'll get better work out of the kids if they're remote or, even better, if they make the day up later in the year.  Plus nobody gets hurt on school grounds and everybody avoids a dangerous commute, and the roads are lighter for emergency vehicles and snow removal.  

 

And half the staff is out too. So its movie day in the caf.

Just now, the_other_guy said:

I can count like 3 or 4 in my adult life. The most famous being the Xmas Day Storm with 20 people in my parents house 

Feb 2010, Feb 2013, Jan 2011 ( ok, snowed first about 5-6 , then stopped, then rained then changed back for a total of 19 inches but since we had some 32 on Boxing Day tends to be forgotten ). I can't remember any others. But it seems to be in Feb when its happened.

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Let the kids enjoy the snow. I have no problem with a snow day 

The young people on my street all work from home except for the postal guy and the doctor. And she has no kids.

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages. 

Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday.

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

because of visibility or road conditions or both ?

both

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Not true here. The snowfall rates are progged at 2-3” per hour. Snow will immediately stick to the roads outside of manhattan 

I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP.

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Best recent snow/superbowl combo was the nice moderate and relatively cold event during Tampa Bay's win a few years back.

By the way - not since the '23 Jets has a defense given Mahomes so much trouble.

I actually don't know much about the NFL. I'm a soccer guy. The family is watching and they call me in for the commercials. I will catch the halftime show because my son is a fan of whoever it is playing this year.

8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Won't be the first heavy snowfall following a 60⁰ Superbowl weekend.

True. it does seem to be the time of year where you see some snow. Think the one in 2014 was my favorite; a paste job around 8-10 IIRC. 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a smart guy

He's been wrong enough times. Let's see what he says tomorrow night. And, I don't expect them to be 100% accurate. 

25 minutes ago, North and West said:

my parents are currently in Florida, and I kind of mentioned this to them when they asked about the storm. One app says one thing, another app something else.

Sometimes it’s a *feeling*; not very scientific, mind you, but some years the feel is there, some years it isn’t. The past two years it hasn’t been. For those of us old enough, we’ve seen the good and the bad, and intuition helps. It’s like a date or a job interview; sometimes you just have a feeling.


.

Well I'm not much for gut feelings, but if we were to go on that, it's hard to feel good about this. My guess is another 1-2 inch job here, because that is the trend for storms this year. But Ant always gets me fired up.....like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football....

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Cool.  Yep that was me and still is, lol.  I used to have a website at Merck where I'd post snowfall info and forecasts from the NWS and other pros (I linked to this site and pro sites all the time; I also did/do tropical weather), as well as trying to explain what was going on (and the various outcome probabilities) to mostly non-scientists and people could sign up for email notifications when I had an update - had about 750 people on that list when I retired and of those I now have about 200 people from work (many I never knew) on my weather emails (also have a family/friends list of about 200).  Started doing this about 25 years ago when I was on the site crisis management team (which included snowstorm impacts).  And there's FB and a couple of RU sports boards where I post similar info. Keeps me busy, lol.  I don't post these long weather posts here because 90% of posters already know what's going on.  

Can you share the name or IM it?  Just curious who it is.  

Sent you a message. Knew it had to be you!

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises

Ah, the famous nowcasting...( ie the storm is kinda hard to predict, but there won't be much IMBY lol )

46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Loving the Mesos, which are now in their range, showing a 3" line from roughly Trenton to Sandy Hook and a 5-6" line along 78 (at 10:1, which is unlikely for the RGEM with surface temps on the mid-30s, but possible for the colder NAM with surface temps in the 32-33F range).  Maybe we can get lucky with the globals and beyond...

And it's looking very likely that for 95, even if there's little accumulation on the roads, heavy snowfall rates and poor visibility will be hitting right during the morning rush hour, so the storm will still be impactful. And for areas along/N of 78 this will likely be a very impactful storm unless we see last minute track shift north.

Also, for coastal areas, moderate flooding is looking likely with the storm as per the NWS AFD and could also see 40-45 mph gusts at the coast at the height of the storm Tuesday morning (more like 30-35 mph inland). 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Was taking a walk this morning with a friend I met in the mall...she works at Merck. Started talking about how warm its been and how it might snow this week: she said  there used to be a guy at work who would keep everyone informed about snow amounts and what to expect, but the guy retired and it seems like it hasn't snowed since.....thought you might get a laugh outta that.

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Upper 50s today. Awesome. 

I was tossing the ball to the dogs while wearing a t shirt. But the constant mud.....stores have pallets of salt sitting around. Might want to stock up and keep it in storage; I bought a huge bag in Dec 96. It lasted me till 2003...

52 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

given that early voters are generally Democrat, but South shore voters are generally republican, should balance no?

Early voting gaps have closed. Early voting allows GOTV operatives to focus on those who have not voted yet as opposed to wasting time on those who already voted.

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and he's not even a Yankees fan lol.

He should be happy the Mets beat the Red Sox with a miracle comeback in 1986 and not worry so much about them lol

I saw that game. Last baseball game I ever watched. It was magic. Even for nonfans of baseball. Yankees wins just ain't the same.