PrinceFrederickWx

I think I know what you’re doing here? That’s an interesting strategy, it might work. (or maybe I’m overthinking it and you just think a big southern slider is happening lol)

@RodneyS I'm upping this just a bit. BWI: 4.3" DCA: 2.1" IAD: 5.8" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker SBY: 2.2"

Please sir, just drop a couple dimes into the slot, and I will happily complete your call as requested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebcrRFzJmWQ

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I started counting from the year I started running the contest; Rodney just continued from there. I have no idea what contests were run in the years before. At the time (if I remember correctly) no one was interested in doing a snowfall contest that year, so I set it up. I wouldn’t go so far to say it’s “climatology denial,” but I wasn’t joking when I posted earlier this month about the snow totals getting pumped up, followed by revisions downwards right before the close. I think there’s a tendency around mid-November for people to get all hyped up; they see digital snow for the first time maybe, or a perfect pattern being shown in the long range, and start to think, “maybe this is the year, finally?” There also just seems to be a tendency in recent years for the models to give weenie solutions around Veteran’s Day, followed by a rug pull right after Thanksgiving.

I want a dollar every time I hear about "that look" and the "El NIno flex"

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The November pump-and-dump; every single year.

A few of our sunflowers from the summer successfully seeded; they’re still growing well. Hoping we can get a few blooms out of this generation before it gets too cold. We’ve never had sunflowers last this far into the year before!

There's really only one match I can find with a comparable El Nino of this strength with a November this dry, and that's 1965. Although 65-66 was a good winter. The next best match would be 1991. That was definitely not a good winter lol This was just using BWI data.

Smelling the wildfire smoke all around Calvert today… it’s a very distinct smell that I learned over the summer.

That post wasn't worded well, sorry. I meant it was a bad sign for the winter that I only have 0.07" so far this month, not because it's been a dry year. I remember looking at some of the region's least snowiest years and finding a pretty good correlation to dry Novembers that preceded. Since you mentioned 2002: the November totals for DCA and BWI were 4.34" and 3.73" respectively, both above average. Of course we may pick up in the second half of the month; but I'm concerned.

I got a whopping total of 0.07” for that system, which is also my monthly total. This is looking like a lock now for driest year since I moved to Prince Frederick a decade ago. Not a good sign for winter IMHO

This is around the time the November pump-and-dump scam starts. Long range will start showing some weenie solution (either 1996 or 2010, depending on whatever ENSO you’re in). People start posting mega forecasts at all-time highs, or rapidly revising upwards… then the Pacific puke (or whatever) starts showing up after Thanksgiving, and Rodney will have to sift through the spreadsheet on December 1 to figure out who quietly revised back downwards. Eta: Exhibit A in post below

I remember in Oct. 2009 we had the back-to-back mid-October coastals, both with big rain totals and four consecutive record lowest maxes at BWI. This pattern literally reloaded in February. If I saw something like that happen this month, I might get excited for the 09-10 analogs being thrown about lately.

Yep I've been saying it for months... this Nino isn't acting like a Nino.

BWI: 2.3" DCA: 1.1" IAD: 3.7" RIC: 0.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 0.2"

That would be well below climo for most of Southern MD, but it would be much more than I've gotten in 3 of the last 4 winters, so there's that I guess.

October is the best weather month in this region by far.

The Great Drizzlefest of 2023 has returned. Monthly total 8.41"

My monthly total is up to 8.19". Hoping I can heavy drizzle my way to double digits this month.