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Posts posted by jpeters3

  1. For those of you pondering the variability among intensity forecasts, the shear isn't going to be exactly "minimal" as Laura makes its way into the gulf.  Projections look like the 15-25 kt range upon entry into the gulf:


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  2. 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

    Let's wait until Sunday before we start throwing crap to the wall and see if it sticks

    For now, focus on finding the core and go from there

    Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

    This is like asking early 20 somethings to not congregate in large numbers, to abstain from alcohol, and to practice abstinence.

    Every time there is uncertainty regarding a TC forecast, you'll get the people falling on their sword calling it a bust too early, and the other people that only believe the bullish forecasts.

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  3. 6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

    The WF continues to push NE, correct? 

    right, but the wind field will change completely as that happens.  So that profile has no bearing on the severe threat further south the warm sector.

    I could probably find a thousand hodos a season north of WFs with 1000+ J/kg of 0-1 km SRH. 

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  4. I strongly agree with SPC's decision.  Hindsight is 20/20 - there were considerable question marks approaching this event (more than in the case of 5/20).  9/10 events with this many uncertainties approaching the event do not end up becoming major outbreaks.  So I think it was a good forecasting call.  A high risk would have been irresponsible, IMO.

  5. 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said:

    So to sum this mess up over the last 30 minutes, I think we had a weak, unwarned tornado dissipate, then, a non-traditional occlusion of the original mesocyclone that somehow lead to additional tightening and a tornado with a straight northerly motion that went straight out of the polygon. Then, the second meso intensifies west of Chambers, drops a massive tornado, along with at least 1 anticyclonic satellite. lol


  6. 1 minute ago, pbrussell said:


    I love Internet forums. Sorry guys 


    Just thinking about the last time I watched a supercell cycle and produce violent tornadoes as long as this one has. Chapman is what came to mind 

    You are an evil satin worshiper for what you said. 


    In all seriousness, sorry for being a dick.

  7. Just now, Wmsptwx said:

    Shouldn’t we wait and see on damage and things...I agree on April 12th but this is at least as impressive if not more that last weekend.

    The Bassfield storm produced larger TDS signatures, stronger GTG velocity, and lofted debris higher.  More impressive thank this.

    Oh, I see what you're saying.  It's quite possible that this storm produced a violent tornado, but nothing has screamed "more impressive" than the southern MS storm from last weekend, much less countless other storms over the past few years.

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  8. Just now, pbrussell said:

    Pretty big tds there. This supercell is the most impressive storm I’ve watched since chapman ks. Perhaps more impressive?

    There were several more impressive ones a week and a half ago in MS, and another one last weekend in MS.

  9. Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

    It's a cycling supercell in a good environment. I'm racking my brain thinking about what's causing the cycling instead of a sustained long tracker. The winds are backed, low level SRH is quite high, no other storms to interact with. Odd.  Whatever the damage track(s) is/are tomorrow, it will be interesting. There are no spotter reports on this since the Seven Oaks area, yet there have been multiple debris balls, and other signatures, in a good environment. We have learned so much about tornadogenesis and forecasting the last decade, to the point we can use debris heights, to estimate tornadic wind speeds. But I still don't know of any literature that would explain why this supercell is cycling so much and others just "stay down". Not complaining, this would be a heck of a damage path if it was all on the ground. Wonder if the storm base here is higher and it's therefore having more trouble sustaining tornadoes on the ground, even though, say, 1k feet up, we've got a fairly continuous funnel. But earlier videos didn't show a high cloud base so that kinda puts cold water, somewhat literally, on that theory. 


    Edit: spotter report did just come in suggesting a tornado in Jasper, from a 911 call center. 5 E of Jasper. So, that may have been the start of that particular touchdown. There is another uncorroborated report of the tornado OG in Jasper, of unknown magnitude, also 911 call center. That may have been strong RFD that gave off the appearance of a tornado. Won't know until much, much later. Can you imagine what this would have been like were it actually on the ground for the whole distance? 

    I think it has been on the ground virtually the whole time.  There haven't been any moments where the meso turned left and shed into the RFD.  Obviously this isn't always how cycling happens, but the debris signature has been so consistent.

  10. 1 minute ago, TexMexWx said:

    The motion shown in the videos was certainly indicative of a powerful tornado; do you have specific examples of damage photos/videos that are evident of that sort of rating? I haven't found too much on that yet

    I think they are basing it off of SPC's radar-based judgement.