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Posts posted by jpeters3

  1. Just now, Windspeed said:

    People are following the high DBZ band and that band only in reflectivity and thinking that is an open eyewall. It is not. You can see the precipitation field still connected. Again, you do not have to have a 360° azimuth 50 DBZ band to make an intense eyewall.

    There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though.  So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there.  I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes.  All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening.  But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.

  2. Just now, eduggs said:

    Looks like radar beam attenuation due to intense precipitation.

    This is is not attenuation for the last time.  It shows up on multiple radars in the same location.  Rain doesn't typically attenuate WSR88Ds at this range.

  3. There is obviously still time, and pressure seems to still be falling.  New recon is inbound, so lets see what they find in the NW quad.  But I doubt there will even be a post-season upgrade unless there is something unflagged > 140 combined with dropsonde data that at least implicitly supports this intensity.

  4. Just now, Windspeed said:

    130 kts seems reasonable. I'm a little scathing though. I'd like sound SFMR beyond 140 kts before I am comfortable with an upgrade. It's semantics though. This is an incredibly intense cyclone.

    I agree with this.  Upgrade to cat 5 probably means confident SFMR > 140, perhaps with dropsonde support.  We definitely don't have that yet.

  5. Just now, jojo762 said:

    To be honest I don't see it being restricted at all... Running out of time quickly for shear to weaken the core any appreciable degree. I'm not sure it will weaken at all -- a high-end category 4 hurricane with highly impressive outflow channels in all quadrants probably is not going to be significantly effected by a weak summertime s/w in Texas.

    Yeah i'm with you.  Saying the outflow looks restricted seems like grasping for straws at this point.  Satellite presentation looks better than ever.  ADT holding at T6.5, as high as ever.

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  6. Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

    Yeah that was me leading the charge on the “it’d have to be way under 930” argument. 

    Im still pretty shocked. I consider myself to be pretty good with the historical record of major hurricanes in the basin and have never seen anything close to this weird. 

    Yeah, you were right to argue about that one.  I can't think of another comparable example.

  7. Just now, jojo762 said:

    Basing off of the FL wind from recon, appears there is no indication of a secondary wind max, so any weakening due to an EWRC prior to landfall is pretty much out of the range of possibilities. 

    You can also look at the KLCH radar - no indication of secondary reflectivity max there.  Just a MASSIVE inner eyewall.

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  8. Regarding the weak returns in the southern eyewall, this appears to be a robust signature (It has been persistent from all radar vantages), and is probably indicative of southwesterly shear.  Doesn't necessarily mean the onset of weakening at all - to the contrary, the satellite presentation looks the best it has yet.  If you recall, Harvey made landfall with a similar "incomplete" eyewall signature, whilst rapidly intensifying.  It's simply an observation that indicates the presence of some shear in the environment.






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