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Posts posted by jpeters3

  1. Models are suggesting that shear will not abate until after landfall.  Accordingly, they mostly hold at the current intensity.  So I think the show is over in terms of RI prior to landfall.

    But sub 900 is still possible, right???




    • Like 1

  2. 1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

    Current IR presentation is definitely bottom-tier for a 140mph category 4 hurricane... imagine it’ll improve overnight prior to nailing Cancun.

    Motion of the cirrus to the east of the system suggests continued easterly shear.  This seems to be reflected in the RAMMB shear analysis, which shows about 15 kt currently.



  3. 6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    You should know when 12z is dude. It’s something even metfan can tell you. 

    It's about #156,000 on the list of most important/relevant knowledge to my career.  But I appreciate the "metfan" advice.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1

  4. 4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Where did he “call” a sub900? Go read the original tweet, written after it set the record for fastest bombing out...He said it could go sub 900, which you also agree is a possibility. 

    Then the guy who doesn’t know when 12z is decided to school him on twitter and report back to us about it. 

    Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out.  And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything?  I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days.  Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge? 

  5. Just now, Brian5671 said:

    here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact.   Went right into Cozumel as a 5

    Gilbert 1988-09-13 2100Z.png

    The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger.  Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.

  6. 9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds 

    Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science.  Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).  

    • Like 1

  7. On 9/17/2020 at 3:46 PM, the ghost of leroy said:

    Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

    Here comes your full on crazy truck tire...

    • Like 1

  8. 7 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

    Question?? Does the strength of the hurricane have any track implications?

    Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.

    • Like 1

  9. 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

    I had quite a chuckle at "full crazy truck tire" ;)

    Next NOAA mission about to penetrate the core.

  10. Just now, JasonOH said:

    2130z (~1 hour ago) microwave pass. Eyewall isn’t even symmetrical as of that pass. This definitely has a chance at making a run for cat 5 if that hot tower can swing all the way around and strengthen the south side.


    Radar attenuation?? :axe:

    • Haha 15
    • Weenie 1

  11. 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    After sputtering a bit early this morning, Teddy is humming right now. Definitely looking like a contender to continue the streak of category 5 hurricanes in the basin if it can stay away from an ERC. No indications of that cycle beginning at the moment. Recon entering now.


    I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0.  Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...

  12. 4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    What do you think about its appearance on various IR channels? Looks great on vis but I switch to anything else and then go “oh that’s why it’s a cat 3”. The east side is really kinda grungy still.  

    Yeah, I honestly think it could go either way.  There is clearly some shear affecting the CDO (making it asymmetric). 

  13. 38 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Not quite yet. Dropsondes don’t measure sustained winds. This is close but I they may go 110 kts instead of 115 because the SFMR readings are a little low

    Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex.  The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.

  14. Just now, JakkelWx said:


    Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this??

    But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out.

    • Like 6

  15. 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

    It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC

    There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC.

    • Like 1

  16. 2 hours ago, Normandy said:

    One question I have:. Why do people dismiss/downplay high wind readings because they are associated with mesovorticies? Are these not a part of the storm and this representative of sustained winds?  If a mesovort produces one minute sustained winds of 140 mph, is the storm not a 140 mph storm? Perhaps some pros can chime in

    If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm.  However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds.  So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.

    • Like 1