• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by jpeters3

  1. Just now, VOLtage said:

    Agreed. It's way too early to be calling this a bust.

    Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes.  Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL.  TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2

  2. The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment.  This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.

    • Like 5

  3. 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

    Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? 

    At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content.  Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point.  These things have no bearing on what will happen.

    • Like 7

  4. 2 minutes ago, Chip said:

    Concerning? Very! Is there anything at all at this point that could throw a wrench in this?


    There always is.  Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.

  5. 1 minute ago, Quincy said:

    The 00z 3km NAM is either scary af, clueless or both. I cherry picked some soundings with 700-500mb lapse rates over 9 C/km with Tds in the lower 70s. Even area averaged soundings show lapse rates around 8 C/km with a small capping inversion. Important note is that low level lapse rates in this environment are marginal, in some cases <6 C/km.

    If the cold bias is correct, you’d have that tiny cap being obliterated. 

    Is it overly simplified to say a HRRR/3km NAM blend is one of the scariest scenarios you could fathom? HRRR is messy with widespread convection, while the NAM is just a little bit too cool in the boundary layer, resulting in very little warm sector convective initiation. 

    IDK, let me consult COAMPS :wacko2:

    • Haha 2

  6. Nam nest says "hold my beer."

    Produces a warm sector with widespread 0-1 km SRH > 600 J/kg and 80-100 kt 0-6 km BWDs, but not one supercell or UH track over MS/AL.  Not much convection at all.  So much for CAMs making things clearer for the 06 UTC outlook.

    • Haha 5