jpeters3
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Posts posted by jpeters3
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Just now, Prospero said:
My guess is the odds are that this is not the last storm of the season.
This ^^^
There were storms all the way into January in 2005.
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lol, raw T up to 7.7...
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For reference, recon is about 33% of the way there, with 2-2.5 hours to go.
The storm is ~ 60-70 miles from shore, moving WSW at 9 mph. So roughly 6-8 hours before landfall.
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Latest Raw T in at 7.4
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1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:
Well, I looked up the specs for a P-3. C-130's top out at 320 knots, so to get to 375 knots in a C-130 you need a strong tailwind. I'll go check. If they're flying a 130 I'm a little confused.
Just looked it up. Looks like it's a C-130. I guess they attached the rocket booster.
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1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:
Indeed. I just did a bit of research, it has a top speed of 411 knots, which is actually very fast for a turboprop. Normal cruise is 328 knots. Something tells me they're trying to make up for lost time.
Is the AF aircraft a C-130?
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2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:
Well, lol, the plane is certainly booking it, given that it's currently moving at a brisk 375 knots.
That should shave off an hour from my estimate!
Satellite presentation is the best so far, supported by Raw T values.
FWIW: T 7.1 as a post-processed value would equate to a 140 kt cat 5.- 4
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Raw T just jumped to 7.1
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Ok, I'll admit it. No recon sucks.
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1 minute ago, eyewall said:
I think everyone wants to know the true intensity etc though.
Right, i mean even I do. But people on this forum act like it's a massive travesty to science and forecasting that is going to cost lives. In reality, it's just a weenie travesty.
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Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall. It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall. It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs. So relax....
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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:
Yes. Tax cuts were needed.
touche.
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contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies. There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision.
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raw T up to 6.9, up from ~ 5.0, over the course of an hour.
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2 minutes ago, Prospero said:
Grand Ilse cam is impressive with waves now over the dunes. A big difference from an hour ago.
Wow, impressive indeed!
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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:
Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side.
Clearly you missed the whole epic battle about whether the weak south side of Laura was or was not due to radar attenuation
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Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb...
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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:
Looks like another Ike. I’d be careful about extrapolating about strengthening into a major. Could end up just being the beefiest 95kt system.
I second the Ike comparison.
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Models are suggesting that shear will not abate until after landfall. Accordingly, they mostly hold at the current intensity. So I think the show is over in terms of RI prior to landfall.
But sub 900 is still possible, right???- 1
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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:
Current IR presentation is definitely bottom-tier for a 140mph category 4 hurricane... imagine it’ll improve overnight prior to nailing Cancun.
Motion of the cirrus to the east of the system suggests continued easterly shear. This seems to be reflected in the RAMMB shear analysis, which shows about 15 kt currently.
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6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:
You should know when 12z is dude. It’s something even metfan can tell you.
It's about #156,000 on the list of most important/relevant knowledge to my career. But I appreciate the "metfan" advice.
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Tropical Storm Eta
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
I'm going sub-900. 895.