jpeters3

Just now, TexMexWx said:

Yep, first to be rated as such at least (we'll see what surveys find with the Greensboro - Brent/Centreville - Columbiana tornado)

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

Just now, JasonOH said:

That radar is far enough away for it to not be too useful. Based on BMX, the tornado likely never handed off. 

I'm guessing it will be assessed as a continuous track.

1 minute ago, David Reimer said:

Tornado just handed off to a new circulation. New significant tornado in progress about a mile east of the old one. 

Hard to tell - looks like it might be the same circulation.

confirmed, still a wedge on humphree's cam.

John Humphress has been periodically showing a massive wedge.

this is literally a few minutes after someone called bust

That storm just took a massive hike toward the right as well.

Just now, VOLtage said:

Agreed. It's way too early to be calling this a bust.

Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes.  Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL.  TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.

Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells.  Look at eastern MS 

That has to be one of the most stunning chaser feed moments i have seen. I thought he was going to get hit.  Thing is moving like a freight train.

Just now, SnowWolf96 said:

Hi, does anyone have a link to James Spann live coverage?

https://www.facebook.com/abc3340/videos/301625501323080

Looks like the classic enhanced inflow signature had developed that proceeds a big spin-up

Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

things are going downhill in a hurry

?

The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment.  This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? 

At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content.  Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point.  These things have no bearing on what will happen.

The NAM nest is a bit out to lunch on early day convection, but has gone all in on the outbreak scenario.

 

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

This is inconsequential.  The discussion speaks for itself.

2 minutes ago, Chip said:

Concerning? Very! Is there anything at all at this point that could throw a wrench in this?

There always is.  Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.

Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

Both the 7z hrrr and the latest 11z hrrr... yikes

All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?

1 minute ago, Chip said:

So what is the ceiling here?

The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak.

After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode.  Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

The 00z 3km NAM is either scary af, clueless or both. I cherry picked some soundings with 700-500mb lapse rates over 9 C/km with Tds in the lower 70s. Even area averaged soundings show lapse rates around 8 C/km with a small capping inversion. Important note is that low level lapse rates in this environment are marginal, in some cases <6 C/km.

If the cold bias is correct, you’d have that tiny cap being obliterated. 

Is it overly simplified to say a HRRR/3km NAM blend is one of the scariest scenarios you could fathom? HRRR is messy with widespread convection, while the NAM is just a little bit too cool in the boundary layer, resulting in very little warm sector convective initiation. 

IDK, let me consult COAMPS 

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

I wanted to be that aggressive with calling out how awful/suspect that thermo profile looked (from a forecast output perspective), but I couldn't.

Fairly sure no observed sounding has ever looked like that

1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said:

and that would be why there is nothing

Yeah, can we talk about where the hell these profiles came from??? Calling BS on this solution...

Nam nest says "hold my beer."

Produces a warm sector with widespread 0-1 km SRH > 600 J/kg and 80-100 kt 0-6 km BWDs, but not one supercell or UH track over MS/AL.  Not much convection at all.  So much for CAMs making things clearer for the 06 UTC outlook.