Allsnow

Ninas favor mjo phase 2-5 because of where the warm waters are. I don’t think we will get much help this year from the mjo. The one positive is how warm the waters are off the west coast. That’s not a typical strong Niña look.

55 and rain, welcome to October.

Yes, In the summer it never saw a heat wave it didn’t like. It has a warm bias in the summer.

Yeah, 17-18 was a classic Niña winter. Cold December to early January, then the pattern flipped to warmth until a SSW brought blocking for March.

I hope all is well @weatherpruf

Looks like we will attempt to get into phase 7 at the end of October

1.02 here. The grass seed loves it

.87. Nice soaking for the grass seed. This was not not the 2-3 that was expected earlier in the weekend

Fail

Euro has less then a inch for the area now.

Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south

I have noticed some foliage starting to pop around town the past few days

88-89 I believe was brutally cold but most of the storms hit the mid Atlantic. @uncle W @donsutherland1?

Would be a nice pattern for east coast storms as the ridge axis is in the Midwest

Yep. Any warm up that comes this week will be short lived

September in September this year which has become a rarity

I wouldn’t expect nao help until it’s 3 days out lol. We haven’t had a -nao in DJF in years. Anybody that says they know one is coming can also sell you a bridge in Brooklyn.

The two biggest factors for nyc winters are the PV and tropical forcing. We really won’t know what they will look like until December IMO.

Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña

Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting.

Lol. metfan waiting for his first 40 degree temps in December

Does nyc drop into the 40’s tonight?

This!

50 and it feels like September