This is why it’s so important to have a weak vortex. If we Didn’t have it (look like a ssw is coming as well) we would be in a typical Niña pattern. The weeklies and long range Models are just looking at the mjo and defaulting Niña
Yeah, now it seems the long range modeling is defaulting to the Niña pattern but in reality it is something different. We have been kicking the can on the Niña pattern now. Perhaps it comes in February idk
Eps went towards the gefs for the end of the month today. I think the gefs have a better handle on the mjo. We should be weekly into p7 by the end of the month