wdrag

I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??

Early morning WPC outlooks: Heaviest rain eastern part of the subforum on storm one. Two storm totals from WPC, general 5" for most of the NYC subforum and spotty 7" MA.

So, this is a new tool to use for many on here... click the 0 hour on IWT or IVT and then use your arrow keys to slide through the model guidance. This is GFS and NAM only op runs. However, you see something of what Blue wave wrote. Also, imo, the second event late this coming week may have some of Hurricane Rick RH in it. Take a look at the eastern side of the storm. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/ivt_iwv_namerica/

WPC 7 day qpf. Everything inside the red contour is 5". I would have to think media is going to have to start arousing concern. It is not everyday that WPC puts out 5 and 6" weekly contours in our area. I will add FF to the tag now. I am aware that river flooding might be the more common result of these events later this week, but I have to think FF will occur when intense rains are continuous for 3-6hours at 1"/hr rates. FF added at about 430P/23.

We are seeing some very large #'s this week for the NYC subforum. Also some of the modeling doesn't agree in the GFS/NAM/EC modeling which i do believe...it's where. 12z/23 GFS as I'm sure you saw has 8" for NYC this coming week. I would necessarily focus in on NYC itself but somewhere in our forum, there seems to be a pretty good chance of spot 7-9" amounts by Halloween. Attached is the new midday NWS WPC ensembled approach to next Fri-Sat. We'll see what happens, if this occurs as predicted but the potential exists for somewhere along and N of I80 up into central NYS-central New England. Those reds are about 3-4.5". Will append the new 7 day totals at about 4P as my time allows and available from WPC. Modeling also is suggesting two separate storm occurrences of 850MB 70 knot se inflow. Again we/I don't know anything for sure, but am confident some validated warning events are coming next week. Where, am unsure... there can be important shifts but the focus continues here, somewhere in our area.

Courtesy Weather.US as are many of the graphics I post. Look at these 06z/ECMWF OP graphics. I don't think it's too early to lean hard on EC ideas. It's just a matter of severity and location that it begins. That's 5" of rain e LI and 5+ Ct River Valley. Possibly too much or mis located. Part of this has the 06z/23 EC raising PW to 2" near LI.

Bring the umbrella... follow the HRRR for today. Forecasts and outlooks look a little weak this weekend through next week with little heads up of the coming and already in progress dismal weather. Had drizzle/sprinkles last evening here in nw NJ per prior Mping reports. (EC did the best with its new convective scheme, especially the midnight ish showers that occurred here early Friday morning). It's raining now (650A) here in Wantage and more to come today... a rather chilly and occasionally wet day here in far nw NJ, probably closer to the city too. Tomorrow's forecasts seem too optimistic. This all plays into cutting grass and outdoor chores putting away summer stuff. Probably off line most of the morning, Walt

Good Saturday morning everyone, Prepare for adverse weather, possible power outages and possible flood related problems, especially north of I80 next week. The first of the real deal rainfall probably begins Sunday evening-night with evolution of a nor'easter by late Tuesday, followed by a second large scale event though possibly of a differing more inside runner flavor, next Friday-Saturday. Details tbd but here are some graphics to ponder. I'll probably add FF to the tags late Sunday or Monday pending further model confirmation, and SVR will be reserved for last add but it's on the table. WPC has a minimum of 3" forecast for I80 north next week. Graphics below: This mornings D3 SVR outlook for Monday, The EC EPS 500MB pattern 00z/Wed (tue eve), the EC EPS sfc pattern for the same time, and then the GEFS as well at the same time, and finally a rather impressive EC EPS rainfall forecast for just our area...EPS have 5" in central MA (more to the east not seen here) and general 1-3" in our area.

Edited topic title to eliminate wording duplication of ‘events’.

Active Pacific pattern assisting downstream northeast USA blocking of two large 500MB trough passages next week. This should result in at least one Nor'easter and possibly a classic fall severe weather event if a 985MB low moves northward through central PA. Max isolated rainfall potential of ~7" somewhere in the NYC subforum (interior) would lead to isolated Flash Flooding but the dry October of generally less than 1/2" so far in NYC 'should' limit the flash flood threat. There has been more rain I84 northward so the flood threat may eventually be targeting the interior NYS/CT portion of our forum. The general non-astronomically high tide cycles should at least partially limit the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Of greater concern appears to be softening of the ground by next weeks rains and the probability for a period of 45-55MPH wind gusts on fully leaved wet tree branches in parts of the area, which would lead to a power outage problem. At this Friday October 22 608AM issuance time, it's far too early to focus on the details. The headlines of this topic will adjust a bit as we move through the weekend, including tags. For now have left SVR and FF out of the tags. 430P/Saturday the 23rd added the FF Tag. 7P/Sunday the 24th increased general rainfall to a range of 2.5-8" up from 1.5-4".

One other note. There is a high wind signal for parts of the area sometime next week and possibly svr as well. No thread yet but if these trends continue another day, will probably start one for damaging wind and spotty 4+ inches of rain in our subforum. Definitely will be active as compared to this week.

As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?). Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.

Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.

Well I had my doubts and so maybe a small area will get some severe, but this does not look like much to me. In fact maybe someone will see small ice pellets tomorrow afternoon in the hilly burbs. My max gust in this part of Wantage NJ was about 27MPH. Was high based convection,

Probably won't be around to keep up with anything w of NYC prior to 430P. Still seems like best chance for strong damaging storms and maybe a TOR is POU north... in other words, north of I84. However, the reality check is coming soon and so follow all NWS products. Thanks, Walt

MCD out since about 11A just w of the subforum.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=24&dim=1 click for water vapor

0752 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts and a marginal tornado threat are possible through the afternoon over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified -- yet still progressive -- mid/upper-level pattern will affect the CONUS through the period. A deep trough -- initially located from far northern ON across the upper Great Lakes to AR -- will shift eastward to western QC, the inland Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, and GA by the end of the period. As this occurs, the basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from western OH to the Mid-South -- will pivot northeastward and accelerate, reaching Lake Ontario, central PA and central VA by 00Z. This perturbation then will eject northeastward across QC and New England overnight while weakening, and while other, trailing shortwaves move through the base of the larger-scale trough. Synoptic ridging will cross the Rockies, while a sharp trough approaches the Pacific Northwest (but still offshore at 12Z tomorrow). At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from Lake Ontario across western NY, northwestern PA, WV, southwestern VA, to southern AL and the northwestern Gulf. By 00Z, the front should reach western New England, coastal NJ/Delmarva, the eastern Carolinas, and northern FL. By 12Z, the cold front should be over CONUS land only in ME and central FL, offshore elsewhere. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... A low-CAPE/strong-shear convective event is expected in the Northeast today, with the delineation between threat categories realistically fuzzier than can be depicted by a sharp categorical contour line on a map. A frontal/prefrontal band of thick clouds and precip, with isolated embedded thunderstorms, is ongoing from portions of northern/western NY and Lake Ontario across western PA and WV to northeastern TN. Through the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon, convective organization and coverage each should grow, with a gradual increase of the severe-wind and tornado threat from initially marginal and very isolated nature now. The convective band will encounter a warm sector undergoing gradual destabilization, from both theta-e advection and muted diabatic heating. This will help to reduce already weak MLCINH and offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates just enough to support peak/ preconvective MLCAPE of 250-750 J/kg. Very long and somewhat curved low-level hodographs -- larger with northward extent -- may lead to 0-1-km and effective SRH each in the 150-250 J/kg range, amidst effective-shear magnitudes ranging from 45-50 kt in southern parts of the outlook to 55-60 kt in the north. This will support some storm-scale rotation -- be it discrete to semi-discrete supercells or line-embedded mesovortices. Overall severe potential should wane this evening as already weak low-level instability diminishes further.

Still looks to me as posted by SPC yesterday..most gusts under 40 knots but per their slight risk area, added this thread. HRRR suggests greatest threat of SVR that crosses into our subforum should be I84 northward. Please follow SPC outlooks/watches and NWS statements/discussions/warnings/reports.

Looked over some of the 00z-06z/15 models including some of the parameters that SPC and NWS review for svr prediction and no thread at this time, per a well summarized SPC D2 outlook. Marginal (so far) for svr, but gusts/a gust front will develop for our subforum between 3P-8P, west-east, with and ahead of the line of convection.. 45 MPH gusts seem likely but 55+ MPH much less likely. Will rereview Saturday morning for a possible short lead-time thread. The SPC D2 outlook in words below... Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough will shift quickly across the eastern U.S. Saturday, with ridging to prevail upstream across the remainder of the country. At the surface, a sharp cold front -- progged to lie near or just east of the Appalachian crest at the start of the day -- clearing the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts by evening. By Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England... It remains apparent that only minimal pre-frontal instability will be available across northeastern portions of the U.S. ahead of the approaching storm system, and as such, expectations are that potential for severe-caliber wind gusts will remain minimal/very localized. As strong ascent spreads across the area, focused along the front, showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing, and should increase somewhat diurnally as what afternoon bolstering of CAPE will be possible, reaches its maximum. Strong flow aloft will support fast storm motions, and as such, gusty winds will be likely with the low-topped bands of convection. However, given the weak CAPE, degree of convective augmentation of suggests that most gusts should remain in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Any severe risk ongoing through the afternoon should diminish into early evening, due to diurnal stabilization effects.

Lots of wind in the profile... no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri. Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward. Will recheck Friday.

Have no access. Monitoring for a marginal wind event Sat aft or night but far too early. Hopefully someone else answered.

Let us remember for future non-automatic default to the EC/EPS as best.: GFS/GEFS prevailed as far superior to the EC/GGEM op runs in their greater than 3 day outlooks for this past weekends rain/drizzle with the main rain just a little offshore. Two-day CoCoRaHs weekend summary attached and for those who want to view it more clearly-just click the image. Nothing precip-wise/damaging wind seems threadablefor a while.

No thread this morning. 00z/7 GEFS trended a little wetter, the NAEFS and EPS about the same as yesterday... so not worth a thread unless this becomes a subtropical and comes due north. For now, conservative but monitoring. WPC has added a little more water to its weekend forecast for our area but not much. Op runs through 00z/7 with the exception of the EC are pretty benign. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. Still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum.

A small amount of tropical moisture infusion may be trending more likely here for Saturday-Monday? No thread yet, but 12z/6 EC op has about spot near 7" by Monday in ne NJ... and the GEFS 500 is looking more like the EC. The question how far north before pushing east Monday. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. I'm not doubting the spots of very light qpf the EC has in parts of our area tonight through Saturday morning. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. I think this is still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum.