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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    No solid insight on when modeling goes into the NBM, except when this runs (19z,01z etc), I dont think it has the latest instantaneous modeling... example 19z cycle. I doubt that it has the 18z model run, nor the 18z ensemble. I was stunned by the sudden upward shift in the 19z NBM yesterday as well as the post of the NWS probs for 4" etc. It didnt make sense. I can only think it incorporated some of the SREF which was broader snowfall for NJ. This is where we have to take this stuff with a grain of salt since I don't know exactly the percentages of modeling and statistical temp guidance that drops into each NBM cycle. I'll bet most on here don't know about LAMP stats. So... I think something was wrong with the 19-22Z/10 NWS probs for 1,4" and NBM amount guidance since it briefly radically shifted. My confidence in the EPS snowfall forecast on the warm side gradient of the event continues below average... This event or non event will tell us more. I definitely would not use 10 to 1 ratios on the warm side of the axis... it doesn't recognize ptype or sweeps it over a 3 -6 hr qpf. I see the GEFS +snowdepth change continues meager... if this verifies again, then I think everyone has to show more appreciation for this guidance. Event has yet to occur so I won't badger on my concerns but I'm a Canadian has to have it (not the 10-1 excess on the warm side gradient) and the GEFS +snow depth change has to be used as strong consideration of what we expect.
  2. wdrag
    No solid insight, except when this runs (19z,01z etc), I dont think it has the latest instantaneous modeling... example 19z cycle. I doubt that it has the 18z model run, nor the 18z ensemble. I was stunned by the sudden upward shift in the 19z NBM yesterday as well as the post of the NWS probs for 4" etc. It didnt make sense. I can only think it incorporated some of the SREF which was broader snowfall for NJ. This is where we have to take this stuff with a grain of salt since I don't know exactly the percentages of modeling and statistical temp guidance that drops into each NBM cycle. I'll bet most on here don't know about LAMP stats. So... I think something was wrong with the 19-22Z/10 NWS probs for 1,4" and NBM amount guidance since it radically shifted. My confidence in the EPS snowfall forecast on the warm side gradient of the event continues below average... This event or non event will tell us more. I see the GEFS +snowdepth change continues meager... if this verified again, then I think everyone has to show more appreciation for this guidance. Event has yet to occur so I won't badger on my concerns but I'm a Canadian has to have it (not the 10-1 exes on the warm side gradient) and the GEFS +snow depth change has to be used as strong consideration of what we expect.
  3. wdrag
    This should perk you up... NWS Probs for 2,4,12" These are all pretty large for 48-72 hours. Disconnect between published snowfall-Tomer Burg 18z GEFS snow probs 1", and the 2,4,12" probs attached plus the 19z attached robust NBM. I can only think the NWS is latching onto the colder EPS values? I saw the18z GEFS predominant ptype for 12z Tue and s of I80 its rain (NYC) as well. Close call I80 for sure. So I'm not saying what will happen but will revert back to these varying stats and see what results. mPing will be helpful midnight ish -8AM Tue. fwiw we just had about .06" rain here in Wantage NJ the past hour.
  4. wdrag
    Noticed WPC pops for snow hadn't updated in a while... (07z). I think they were busy collaborating with the WFO's. First watch is out for central PA.
  5. wdrag
    I'll add the new WPC low chance of 3+" NYC after 12z Wed by a very good WPC forecaster-collaborator. So there is hope - it isnt over. Need to watch the trends but allow for noise 20 mi fluctuations until 24 hours out.
  6. wdrag
    I dont think there is nearly enough respect for Positive snow depth change, ESPECIALLY the gradient edge where temps are a possible accum factor. Gradient is where the largest errors occur. You can go 10 to 1 in colder thickness below 540 but not above. That's why the NWS uses ratios in small increments to match temp/type/vertical thermal profile. It's not the old days... we now have better techniques to attempt the reality. Referencing 10 to 1 in warmer side of the gradient is not my choice. I've seen comment about big snowfall rates overcoming but what if that very strong lift ends up north of NYC? Then it's harder to accum. I may learn my lesson, but for now 12z/10 Canadian is pathetic, ensembles not too good I80 south except the more robust EPS and so prior reputation for the Euro warrants keeping that in mind. I've lost faith in the Euro and notice that even though the GES is not a great flag for events...it's GEFS Positive Snow Depth Change has been better than the Euro in my opinion. NBM is still up for 2-3" so not all is lost. I will keep an eye on GEFS positive snow depth change and if it grows... NYC good, but otherwise we need the Canadian on board. I can only think the Canadian will move its solutions north and snowier on the edge in the next couple of cycles. I'll check back tomorrow morning.
  7. wdrag
    Couldn't agree more... however, once the cat is out of the bag... This system is not gospel today once way or the other. Just need to ride out the variability. Very sensitive interactions.
  8. wdrag
    The 353AM attached.Ihavent checked for an update. In my opinion as I do my own non AMWX posts... once/day is enough... that steadies out all the model fluctuations and tends to keep my group on message whether its trending up or down.
  9. wdrag
    Not all the storm. Their map through 7p resides on their winter wx link
  10. wdrag
    Don't know but they apply, probably differing snow ratios with applicable qpf for 1 or 3 hour periods during the event along with multiple ensemble surface temps. Complex but good baseline. I'm still very careful about snow south of I80. GFS already has above freezing temps aloft at LGA and I have privately mentioned a possible sleet mix to Sussex County for an hour or two. I dont want to get into debates about snowfall rates overcoming above surface freezing temps. Potential exists but I'd wait til 36 hours our before great enthusiasm. Canadian still all over the place which tells you sensitivity problems to the upper air interactions. I could be wrong but right now I'm conservative still 1/2-2" CP. Blessings if it triples that and a hard won model victory for the NYC participants. 3 days out. The prob map for 2" or more is only through sunrise Tue.
  11. wdrag
    I'm in agreement about caution: All modeling except the previous storm overzealous EPS has less than 1" accum NYC. Ensemble temps are above freezing NYC metro midday Tuesday. Even sign of near freezing temps aloft which means mixing. I think caution warranted... The Canadian especially all over the place. Maybe it will coalesce into a nice event, but for now I think northern PA, I84 corridor is a best fit with a probable climo snow on the back side for NYC of 1/2-2". Could be wrong but that's what I'm publishing privately for a D4 outlook.
  12. wdrag
    For the enthused, a thread was started for the event and you can shift comments there uf you wish. I'm still reticent as written via comment in the thread.
  13. wdrag
    19z/8 NBM 1.6" NYC, 12z/8 GEFS less than 1" NYC, 12z/8 CMCE less than 1" and the EPS while around 2" NYC Positive snow depth growth, it busted pretty bad 1/28-29 on being too far south. So, we'll see how this plays. WPC has all chances of 3" snow north of I80. D5-6 opportunity: will want to verify against these data that I'll append shortly and we'll see what might have been best at this distant time. These graphics added at 539PM. All identified. Positive snow depth is my base amount that I use, then double in the axis, or even use Kuchera or 10 to 1 if cold enough thicknesses for TOP of the range. For now, the positive snow depth change is good start for me.
  14. wdrag
    I was going to wait til at least 6A Friday to further review since there is much uncertainty including sfc temps, but someone else started the thread.
  15. wdrag
    Will review carefully this eve and possibly start a thread but need some acc NYC. Am on the road now so won’t know on a thread til 9pm. Just keep Monitoring on this Feb thread. NYC due for another 1-3 since it’s only had one of the normal 3 per winter. Thanks Don
  16. wdrag
  17. wdrag
    06z/8 EPS + snow depth change... warrants continued restraint on expectations I80 NYC LI. Click for clarity..
  18. wdrag
    Focusing on single op cycles vs ensembles is a probable mistake. Consensus continues north of us for all global models snowfall so far. That's why there is no enthusiasm. Realistic is the way to go. Generally need Nov-Dec snow to have a good winter as posted earlier. Stats support. I hope we're not cooked, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Maybe the stats will add outlier sample of decent NYC snow by seasons end? Back tonight.
  19. wdrag
    No thread this morning: Modeling overall says I84 is more or less the south boundary of 1-2" of snow. Ensembles via the GEFS have less than 45% of 1" of snow in 48 hour period NYC early next week. I added the NBM from 07z/8 through Valentines Day: I can't thread anything and am not upbeat about a winter thread for a while. I think it a good idea to wait for another 12-48 hours before any thread. Wish I could be more enthusiastic. I'll check back tonight.
  20. wdrag
    Right now, I can't start a thread for NYC-LI 1/2-4" snowfall 2/13 ish cause 19z NBOM and positive snow depth change on the latest 12z CMCE/EPS and 18z GEFS are all less than 2". Too risky for a loser thread. Wind gusts right now are ensembled 40-45 MPH which is marginal wind advisory and a day of OBS thread. If ensembles grow together on snowfall for I80 region we'll get it going but for now, at least from myself, I cannot confidently proclaim we'll get 2" at CP for either the 13th or 18th-19th. I hope this changes. The 13th event looks to me like north of I84, probably best snowfall north of I90. NAVGEM may be a best fit? Certainly the ensembles are not optimistic for I80 area This can adjust since we' re still talking D6-7. Back tomorrow morning. Best to all. Walt
  21. wdrag
    No time to look but on wind. All should be aware that CPC has had us in a slight chance of a big wind event 14th-roughly 18th. Just go to CPC hazards and the probabilistic elements and you’ll see wind flagged in the northeast. If we eventually thread something it might be primarily damaging wind In any case I can’t look closely til 630pm
  22. wdrag
    Excellent and well stated! Anyone can start a thread but I prefer to start those that have a better assurance of at least half the subforum accurate verification for a long lead time.
  23. wdrag
    One error on sigh and composure- ensembles... The CNN voice is between aircraft and Air Traffic Control. The Cockpit Voice Recorder which I think holds 2 or more hours of sound was overwritten, which must be some sort of airline/FAA procedural oversight on saving that data. Still, it's instructive. Let's go snow!
  24. wdrag
    Also, I think there is a lot to learn from NTSB aircraft incident reports...the way they are investigated, written, referenced.
  25. wdrag
    No specific reference; It's a forum. I get excited too, but too many failures direct me to restrain my spoken thoughts. For now, I dont know exactly what is ahead except it's worthy to monitor but for a wider area than just our NYC subforum. For sure, this future is looking a little better than December.
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