wdrag

I've checked back and looking forward. First the CMCE and EPS blend did best for this past Sunday evenings snowfall... GEFS not good---way too low. I've discovered a problem in the 24hr CMCE 10 to 1 mean vs the 24hr CMCE positive snow depth. Will post in the morning when awake. The thread for the 5th-6th has been started and I'll add a new thread for the 8th-9th at 9A this morning. You're probably enjoying the spate of probable wintry events coming up the next two weeks. I like it cause it means we can moisten the ground. In the 10 days ending the 12th including the tenth of an inch tonight... all ensembles 1.5". Probably add another 3/4" to extend it out to 360 hours... beneficial, presuming it occurs something like this.

Final at the OKX CLI sites 2A/3 NYC Central Park 0.5" Newark 0.5" JFK and Islip Trace LGA.1.2" BDR 2.5" Will CoCoRaHs map at 10A.

Wantage NJ 4sw final 1.0" beautiful snow. Report at 150A and 27F. Yesterdays high was 26. Season snowfall 20.8. Later, Walt

My guess based on the OBS from CP (0.02) that at least 0.2" fell through 8P there. Ditto here in Wantage, NJ...sort of feeble looking.. Back end of the precipitation in Central PA is showery looking and harder edges implying sleet.

Discuss the possibilities of little more snow-sleet for NYC-LI. Please check back on the 7th for the review of the attached guidance, maybe used as a learning tool. Ensembles temporarily trended a little colder so that NYC CP-parts of LI may receive 1/2-1.5" of snow sleet to start before a change to rain. Most of the precipitation looks to occur 6PM Wed-Noon Thursday, starting as snow or sleet then changing to rain by sunrise Thursday NYC-LI, but freezing rain-sleet interior, northwest of I95. That freezing rain sleet may linger into midday over parts of nw NJ/interior se NYS, interior CT and the Poconos where mixing warmer air to the surface should be minimal until sometime Thursday night (baggy flow Thursday morning). Time of transition from snow-sleet to rain-ice will determine amounts of snow/sleet. This event may impact (slow travel-transportation delays) during the Wednesday evening commute depending on the start time, and "should" leave at least delays and/or widespread cancellations for the interior early Thursday. Total melted qpf should range between 0.3-0.8".. with the GEFS the least. QPF factors into the resultant amount of the various wintry elements. Ensembles already included are recently colder prob of >1" snowfall (includes sleet) from the EPS, CMCE, GEFS. the EPS 06z/6 2m temps, the ensemble chance of >0.10 freezing rain qpf from both the 12z and 18z cycles. Those probs have been consistently very high for the past several days---BUT caution on interpreting .10 qpf as .10 glaze. It could be significantly less depending on temp/rates of fall, drop size. I also added the EPS raw qpf interpreted as freezing rain. Ensembles show a primary low moving up into the eastern Great Lakes-upstate NY by dawn Thursday with a warm frontal wave moving northeast off the NJ coast, possibly maintaining itself through forenoon Thursday passing e of LI, then merging with the primary low in eastern Canada Thursday night and returning subfreezing temps to the area by daybreak Friday. The amount of subfreezing cold that returns in the wake of the departing eastern Canada low on Friday, will help determine what happens here next weekend (Feb 8-9). If somehow the primary near the eastern Great Lakes is dominant and there is no warm frontal wave of low pressure coming up the NJ coast, then snow-sleet amounts would be less. Final 757P/2. 702 PM Tue 2/4: headline delayed the start time about 12 hours to midnight Wed night. Bulk of the wintry mix probably occurs in a 6 hour window roughly 4AM-10AM. All of the NYC subforum and surrounding areas near and inland from I95 are covered by a winter wx advisory issued at 330PM Tuesday. Several hours of slippery conditions in snow ice are also expected in NYC and Long Island near dawn-sunrise Thursday before a change to rain. The delay was caused by the narrow snow streak in se PA-MD-DE Wednesday morning not advancing northeastward until Wednesday night.

Snowing Wantage NJ and pretty decent sized flakes.

Despite no advy NNJ and se NYS, it will get slippery. Believe this might be a CRTIERIA difficulty. What about freezing rain at the end there near 11P? It clears toward dawn and radiates a bit so that moisture refreezes NNj and se NYS. I think problems ahead for our area. 25/19 at 538P.

As time allows, will prob get a thread going for Feb5-6, roughly Noon-noon, for less than 1" snow/sleet LI/CP/I95 east, and longer ice interior. Need time to catch up as was at Point Pleasant today... including good seafood at Spikes. Will check in at 8P.

Looks like first snow grains, freezing drizzle or patches of light snow showers could start sometime between 11A-2P on parts of e Li. Radar starting to show weak echos off LI.

You've seen the ensembles through the 16th... 2.5-3.5". That is good. Here's the chance of more than 2" as per the 50 member NAEFS.

No new threads for me this morning...let's finish off tonight inn the Feb 2 thread. Feb 5-6, looks mainly interior but its possible we'll see 1/2-1" snow sleet CP-LI but want to be more certain. Feb 8-9 and Feb 11-14 could end up decent here but long ways to go before threading. You have the models. Attached the EPS chance of 0.10 water equiv glaze. This is impressive for this Wed-Thu... and also the chances for similar next weekend via the NWS ensemble. EPS for D7 is only about 30-40% but still impressive. Could be more snow-sleet with the one next weekend?

And today the 00z/2 EPS ensemble chance of 0.10 water equivalent ice-near 100% as posted. Plan accordingly interior Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Also the chance for the same next weekend.

Think this 2/5-6 event is going to be more significant than the overall 1/31-2/2 event when that's summarized, especially ICE. WSSI-P. Says basically pretty widespread wintry event coming later Wednesday and especially Thursday morning.

Many opportunities this month, though I84 looks better for ice-snow but am monitoring for NYC-LI. Sunday eve snow-ice obs are a good fit for the Jan 31-Feb 2 thread, whatever there is. Models trending snowier CP with EPS near 1/2" CP. I'm pretty sure much of Li will see snow, or a snow- ice-rain mix 6P-midnight and one model is starting snow showers midday Sunday. ALL 12z/1 ensembles have about 2.5" of qpf here next 16 days. We'll see if that is overdone but at least its qpf.

So... you're probably noticing N Shore LI and CP now modeled for measurable snow-sleet tomorrow eve. We'll see if happens. No matter, I plan to post later Monday the Jan 31-Feb 2 snow sleet totals and compare agains the originating 00z/26 guidance You already know about the ice in nw NJ/e PA/se NYS which was a Friday morning delay producer for many schools (not snow but a significant non visible winter element hazard both underfoot and for aviation considerations-deicing). Snow-ice OBS tomorrow should go into this thread, if you have any. Thank you.

Is there going to be any scow acc CP and north shore LI tomorrow afternoon eve to brighten the spirits.

See the higher probs for significant icing Thursday morning in the attached European ensemble from 00z/1...comparing to the previous post.

I'm posting a map for Thursday morning delays ... should be worse. That map is the chance of >0.10 water equiv ice...use 1/3rd of that for thickness. Good info you posted. Was like an ice skating rink on my driveway... that was from 0.02 melted. Thursday morning as bad or significantly more hazardous... details tbd. No thread since not NYC-thi is a disappointment for sure and ensembles were too cold and too far south on last Sundays thread start. NYC and Li...might see a little spotty 0.1-0.2" snow acc Sunday afternoon-eve. Morale win??? if it occurs??? NOT.

Hi! Looking at2/5-6 for an unlikely thread since mostly I84. Certainly no thread from myself prior to 2/2.

Still 31.6F here at 852A but incoming solar is melting driveway. Picture from earlier... dangerously icy from 0.01 here. Also sent a note to the mPing group on wx impact ...Icy sidewalks phrase not posting.BF72BC72-0F0B-4DE4-A4E4-6D4D75554DB9.heic

Aside from this Sunday afternoons-evening brief snowfall of probably under 1", which is embedded in the overall failed Thread of Jan 31-Feb2, have attached an overzealous EPS chance of one tenth inch glaze for Wed-Thu Feb 5-6. Magenta is over 50%. Basically this points out where icing can occur. I find the EPS can be a little too generous with icing.

Freezing rain here in Wantage Nj began around A. Much of nw NJ 30-32F at 535A.

FYI;

18z/29 RGEM/EC now starting as snow se NYS Fri morning and as it see it, some model trends are continuing south. I dont buy the ICON far north, nor the NAM. Thinking GFS/EC/CMC blend... and will watch how this steadies or sinks a little more on Thursdays cycles. I know snow is the winter prime interest here, but ice is in the mix as the 21z/29 ensembles suggest, mirroring the previously posted 12z/29 SPC HREF ice graphic.

Anyone heading into nw NJ-I84 corridor of NYs-CT-MA Fri-Fri night should be alert for icing on untreated surfaces. NWS probs for .01 zr in that area >60-70% and now a 20% chc of .1 glaze in some high terrain locations. Additionally, modeling seems to be gradually shifting south since 00z/29...sfc low not going across NYS but instead near I80 and EPS snowfall axis slipping a bit s now into MA. Still far away from us but still worth monitoring.Attached glaze potential near sunrise Friday.