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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Keep us posted.... you should exceed 5" by midnight.
  2. wdrag
    Interesting. I'm thinking cellar apt flooding (absolutely not the king) Also, 22,000 meters without power in NJ now. Probably will get worse and reduce sump pump assistance if no generator. Also, EC and many models are. behind on what is occurring in NNJ/LI today... and...18z EC has 50MPH+ gusts in coastal NJ and LI later Friday-Fri night. Uproots and power problems, especially where 5+ this afternoon-Friday evening.
  3. wdrag
    Not sure if I missed something but maybe a flood emergency in the Bronx? Sure looks rough there to me dependent on already the spotty short duration excessive there. Not my call and maybe local offices see it with different data.
  4. wdrag
    For now am behaving and not posting on the event specificv link til 5" reports, but The Bronx climate site is over 4.25", and Oceanport in ne NJ 3.5". All those road closures and wind damage reports good to go on the 5-12" pocket link.
  5. wdrag
    fwiw... we already know of many 2-2.75" amounts in central-north central NJ, in the early part of this event. Am still looking for 3+" reports prior to 6P, since digital radar amounts have exceeded that in a few spots in the I80-I195 band.
  6. wdrag
    excellent use of guidance--- see those 5's and 7's tween i80-I78 and ne MD. the idea is there... might be off a little bit but we will know more tomorrow. Impressive amounts also on the RAP and 06z EC. Wont surprise me if a flood emergency may be needed for a few urban locations by Saturday morning. Not the worst ever, but life threatening for a few people for sure, just in my opinion. Now to pinpoint max's within 10 miles with 3 hours evacuation notice, if it gets that bad.
  7. wdrag
    No changes from my view, though tomorrow I may shorten up the yield to Saturday, but still not convinced its done by 21z Sat. This afternoon into tomorrow morning will be very large... 06z/6 NAM and HRRR versions I think are onto max amounts... placement always imperfect but close. Might have our first 5+ report tomorrow morning.
  8. wdrag
    Monitor NWS products including NHC and local offices from OKX and PHI. This Topic doesn't guarantee anything but serves as a platform for comment. Suggest starting with actual 5+" rainfalls, or unusual flooding. Note: WPC is already bullish on Tuesday's rainfall. Tropical Debby remnants-east coast trough-RRQ upper level jet related pattern this week had WPC intermittently forecasting 7+" of rain in NJ and possibly coastal CT/LI. PA and se NYS may also be involved in big rain. PRE conditions may??? exist late this week (Fri-Sat?) but uncertain in our NYC subforum. Added a few graphics. WPC overall has been advertising 5+ in its graphics for our area since 06z/4. Below is the WPC 7 day rainfall forecast based on ensembles etc. Sampler past 3 days rainfall via CoCoRaHs. Machine ECMWF EFI, Machine GEFS ARI and UFHS, WPC D2 excessive and their D5. You'll note the GEFS machine tools extend beyond D5. This weeklong accumulative event may be over by Sunday the 11th. FFG is very dry south of I80, so far. This could. change radically by Friday night. Ensemble river stage products right now are conservative but highlight I95 corridor in our area. FFG for now is most vulnerable I80 northward in NJ. What to do? Just think of what you may??? need to alter in your plans due to flooded roads/streams, cellars. Potential doesn't mean it occurs. 727A/5 Initial title Potential POCKETS 5-12" of rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5".123411
  9. wdrag
    Just woke up and checked WPC... haven't seen anything else, but think ill get a thread going by 9A. Still need to digest.
  10. wdrag
    Compare the ECMWF Precipitation EFI from 00z/4 vs 12z/4b(bottom). About the same area but stronger signal...maybe a slight turn sewd on the 12z cycle. Will check this again daybreak Monday.
  11. wdrag
    I did se the 12z/ec op and its juicy all the way up to I90 but for now... think I'll wait on a thread so as not to too put too much emphasis on what may be coming to a portion of the NYC subforum, at least til I can more confidently express as per this mornings post, regarding the potential for damaging flooding.
  12. wdrag
    Attached shows WPC slipping the max axis a little southeast Probably no thread from me today on this. Will rearview early Monday. Also about 0.55" in 30 minutes here in this part of Wantage NJ (Sussex County of the northwest part of the state and still thundering) through 159PM (now) and still raining.
  13. wdrag
    Let's take another look at this around 630PM when a whole bunch of new guidance is available. I want to see ECMWF EFI hold firm. This is going to be a tantalizer, I think...slow moving. Different daily relatively narrow paths of 1-3" rainfall from this afternoon, & Tuesday onward. Not sure if anyone else is noticing the potential for a narrow line of heavy showers/storms moving seed in the 6P-midnight time frame Monday. There may are some thoughts to no-go so I'll review and think on it, pending new guidance. Thanks for the feedback.
  14. wdrag
    WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while. Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday. imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product). RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye. If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know. For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest. NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA. Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total, The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4
  15. wdrag
    One final note on all this: I guess the deniers are not too happy with James Hanson in 1988... see below. Also fwiw: I've seen documentation that the areal coverage of -5C in winter is the 4th or 5th smallest in the past 79 years and that extreme cold is losing the battle by a huge margin to extreme warmth in recent years. Carry on with threads as best you view... Here's a sample about and from James Hanson 1988. The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s. Hansen, whose testimony to the US Senate in 1988 is cited as the first high-profile revelation of global heating, warned in a statement with two other scientists that the world was moving towards a “new climate frontier” with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years, bringing impacts such as stronger storms, heatwaves and droughts.
  16. wdrag
    On March 2 attached the Feb verification to p1. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out best with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area.
  17. wdrag
    Just in case you may be looking to me for a thread, start threads as you see best including background support. I'll add a Feb wrap, late March 1 or 2.
  18. wdrag
    Verification for the non event. Also added to the bottom of initial post for those interested in comparing how poor ensembles can be 5-7 days in advance.
  19. wdrag
    Changed my mind at 537A/20 to do a Title tightening up and downgrade. Modeling is there to see. Too warm for snow acc NYC... if a short period of wet snow occurs. Overall tho, thread is of little added value to the bulk of the NYC subforum membership, except maybe its too early in the winter 23-24 evening for last call? If you see snow from this... enjoy the moment. Please continue posting elsewhere for non-Feb 23 related snow-ice. Thank you. No reason for me to change anything added last evenings mainly elevation dependent discussion regarding the event evolution and expectations, including banding signature. NBM, GEFS SREF show nothing... seems a little negative from what am seeing but certainly no hazard headline for most of the NYC subforum.
  20. wdrag
    Adding on: to me this is looking like a a 6PM Thu-3PM Fri mixed wintry event with I84 mainly elevation snowfall. Questionable whether its cold enough for elevation pavement accum and so questionable on hazards but thinking rapidly deepening sfc low pres passes s of LI out near the benchmark Fri eve and the boundary layer temp guides whether the modest banding http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ seen on the 18z/19 GFS 10-16z Friday can yield snow instead of rain I84. Added one banding potential graphic. If interested check the link and move to 15z Fri. NYC probably too warm for any mixed snow but am expecting mPing rain-wet snow mixed to the nearby nw suburbs Fri 6A-10a in heavier precip rates. This lead short wave apparently is running out a little too far ahead of the northern stream diving- increasing amplitude trough that crosses the northeast Saturday to do what I thought it might 3 days ago. Should be sct snow showers or flurries Saturday with steep laps rates. One example of banding signature attached. It's been on the GFS for several cycles now, resulting -shown as deeper green fall rates 12z-18z Fri. I'm letting the headline ride until Tue evening, when I may finally be convinced no snow acc hi terrain early Fri pocs/nw Nj through nw CT and MA. I just think this is too marginal a situation to say no to an I84 elevated event, especially 72-90 hours in advance. fwiw...if we dont get this wet snow Fri AM, this may be our last decent chance for 3 or 4 weeks???? Am off line til mid Tuesday morning.
  21. wdrag
    I’ll work on that late tomorrow if indeed no hazardous snow ice, probably elevation dependent. Temps too marginal to say no, at least for me, i expect models increase areal elevation coverage of snow ice tonight and tomorrow. If not then it’s a complete busted thread. Thanks for your suggestion Am on the road.
  22. wdrag
    Verification added via NOHRSC and CoCoRaHSwith the infamous banding near I78 that dumped 6-13" from s LI beaches west to Allentown. DCA 0.1, BWI 2.2, PHL 2.6, ABE 5.7, NYC CP 2.0, BDL 0.7, ORH 0.5w, and BOS T. looks to me like GEFS did best using the initial ensembles within this thread.
  23. wdrag
    Good analysis. Clearly the GGEM and GfS have finally shown a se trend. Nothing set in stone but this potential is on the table. Maybe only elevations but i can’t rule out anything including wet snow NYC if this closes off near NYC in the fast developing passage
  24. wdrag
    This so far is looking like a busted thread, but the potential in my mind continues. As we draw closer, this may start getting mapped a little clearer. I've not thrown in the towel. WPC continues the slightest potential for I84 3+". Admittedly not looking good but still a few days from merging the streams and cranking.
  25. wdrag
    I can do a conference call sometime mutually convenient to demo these tools... just need to set it up. The set up not my skill but then I can demo live how to use these two links and also go over Pivotal wx use of posi snow depth. We just need an event. Thanks - grandchild doing ok... Will add a couple maps of yesterdays snowfall during midday and also back to P1 thread initiation to compare to the ensemble predictions.
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