wdrag

another good observation. good work

Good Sunday morning everyone! A new day-start. More convection. No strong thunderstorm thread on Monday yet, tho SPCD2 now has a marginal (no hailers mentioned). Prefer to revaluate and may be hold off til early tomorrow morning, if then. Edited: 612A Hailer risk may be better for Tuesday, and only the New England forum. Thursday the 17th, now looks off for me here (elevated based and dying convection rolling east across parts of the area Thursday night?). After that, whatever the models give, they might take away... but does look hot for a day or 2 around the 19th-21st?

These reports, akin to this, not sure if they're called into the NWS or sent in on a spotter line. This kind of documentation is valuable for NWS (and ourselves) self assessment. I can help get this connected to the right location for their consideration. Good report. Thanks.

Unsure what will be reported from the recent warning in se NYS...but thought it would be interesting to post OKX radar, a couple of wundermaps with large 2+ amounts (includes a slight amount of early this morning), verifying OKX radar (yellows 2+") and radarscope digital storm total and verifying the SPC HREF max qpf fcst for today (12z/10, 00z/11, 12z/11-you will see the init times I have reversed order but the idea is there just the same)) Note ne NJ and se NYS, and subsequent verification idea (purple is 1.5+ and red is 3+). This is why WPC and myself use this guidance quite a bit. 845P/11

Well...this one is about over. Not a good day for warnable storms. many brief heavy sun showers w rainbows, isolated thunderstorms. Few below severe gusts. Wantage .24" around 545P w a gust 27MPH. A few power outages se NYS. Did not quite live up to marginal risk here in NY forum.

Here's the 1 hr COUNTY wide FFG. Also FFW posted ne NJ (not attached).

Looks like some sort of flooding will be occurring ne NJ soon. already digital STP .6" and I see some OHP of around 1.2"near Pearl River in extreme se NYS. When it rains, it pours.

You all saw this? Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0470 (Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ) MPD Selection Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Corrected for end time and removing counties from image Areas affected...Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeast Upstate NY and NYC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111800Z - 120000Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing in a highly unstable environment will become more widespread through the afternoon. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1"/hr, and may approach 2"/hr at times. Despite rapid storm motion, rainfall of 1-2" with isolated higher amounts is possible. This rain falling on top of saturated soils may produce flash flooding. Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms evident in reflectivity from KDIX WSR-88D are expanding in coverage this afternoon. This expansion is due to intensifying ascent in an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment. GOES-16 WV imagery indicated a shortwave lifting northward from southern NJ, impinging upon a stationary front analyzed at 15Z extending from a surface low in NW Upstate New York southward to the Chesapeake Bay. Recent GPS observations measured TPW of 1.9-2.1 inches, around 1.5 standard deviations above the climo mean, while RAP analyzed MUCape had climbed to around 2000 J/kg east of the stationary front. As the afternoon progresses, ascent will expand into the moist and unstable environment as the shortwave and front lift east-northeast. This should lead to increasing areal coverage of thunderstorms. With PWs remaining around 2" and MUCape potentially approaching 3000 J/kg, rain rates of more than 1"/hr are likely as noted by high HREF neighborhood probabilities. The limiting factor to flash flooding will be the expected rapid storm motions to the NE as noted by 25-30 kts of 850-300mb mean flow. However, bulk shear of 25 kts and unidirectional shear parallel to the stationary front both pose a threat for some storm organization and short-term training. This suggests that despite the rapid cell motion, rain rates of 1-2"/hr occurring multiple times across the region could produce 1-2" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts, and this is reflected by CAMs simulated reflectivity and 6-hr QPF. FFG here is quite low due to saturated soils from recently departed T.S. Fay. Rainfall of 2-5" occurred Friday, producing compromised FFG that is as low as 0.25"/1hr, with widespread FFG less than 1"/1hr and 1.5"/3hrs. HREF 3-hrly exceedance probabilities climb to near 50%, and NWM streamflow anomalies show several areas of high flow. While flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, these excessive rates, especially if they occur in any urban areas or across the most sensitive FFG, could lead to flash flooding into this evening. Weiss

Looks sort of lame so far as far as severe goes... not sure if it will crank up? will check again at 330P. Should be east northeastward moving lines.

Good observations noted in these pages. I like the Suffolk-BOS and relating Sandy-Fay. I add this but kind of late... New England qpf assessment. No sure if there is a plot somewhere of all our forum area (observed)?

I may have been 2-3 hours too soon on this window... but 12z guidance both SPC-3KM NAM and HRRR continue. I may be out of communication until about 1230P.

Looking beyond today: Timing of convection uncertain but Monday the 13th could see a few hailers... timing of convection is my concern. Tuesday: leftover in se NYS?? Thursday the 16th looks interesting to me but convective debris may nix a fairly potent day---which has a nicely modeled 500mb wind field, CAPE etc. This is not the end of potency per overall USA-Canadian jet and attempted thrusts of heat into the ne USA beyond the 16th. Enjoy every minute of this active period. 605A/11

Please see SPC, NWS discussions, any statements, and our own members. Leftover PWAT, relatively strong 500MB (30kt) wind field, modeled CAPE, lightning density, SPC HREF and WPC D1 QPF all suggest pretty decent convection this afternoon dying out by late evening. Combination of convection (expecting several 1.5 to as much as 3" amounts today) and past weeks rains, should more easily permit isolated flash flood. Wind damage, mostly associated with wind and maybe a couple of uproots because of somewhat softer ground. Hail not mentioned but I dont think primary in this leftover tropical environment. Eastern LI seems less likely for SVR/FF this event.

Wantage (southern part) only 1.93. Beneficial: have reviewed a few posts on this particular page of FAY and appreciate the comments, especially data nw NJ. The radar estimates to me appear to be too low. Appears to me USA models + GGEM generally out performed EC and especially UK on track/rainfall expectations. A decent winter-like nor'easter in subtropical environment. Have one 4a-4a QPF map... and will add an update for entire forum area around 11A. In the meantime, max gusts per OKX to supplement earlier max gusts posted on this thread. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off and last evenings rainfall totals for the OKX area: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX PHI rainfall totals as of just before midnight. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

On Fay early reference per earlier inquiry: FAY as a storm was mentioned I think on Monday or Tuesday, helpful tropical references to todays event were made by Bluewave on the 4th and others on Sunday the 5th. All good. Wantage NJ at least 1.58 so far since about 11AM, most of it after Noon-a 6 hour total.

Here's some data from the NJ Climate Network... Max gusts so far (MPH), and storm totals so far, as of 444PM.

No new threads from myself, per ongoing FAY. SPC continues Marginal risk Saturday per SPC D2 discussion. Has potential, wind, pwat etc. Reevaluating for a thread, Saturday morning. Monday: Potential hailers? Need further look the day before (Sunday). Next Thu-Sat (16-18th). One of those days could be a SVR day. Pretty good heat nearby, as well bigger CAPE. Wind fields all the days listed offer marginal potential for wind damage, IF big convection develops.

Thunder-rolling- at 224PM here in Wantage of the nw tip of NJ. Did find one lightning strike on my radar scope latest DIX image.

Regarding power: Most of the NYS outages in the Mohawk Valley. But NJ: per the recent earlier post... attached for 231P report.

near 33kt now up to Monmouth. 40kt Brick NJ. Not seeing anything beyond the 40s in knots along the NJ coast.

Yes, courtesy NWS BGM and their associates developing this product. The subbasin is probably available to the public but I don't ever really use.. That's a NWS warning responsibility. I just don't have the time, even in retirement (haven't started consulting business). I only try to ballpark. Here's the BGM link. It's set to 1 hour FFG but you can change it. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productCountyFFG

Error (possible) on my 6.5" note for s NJ. Cant find that report right now but as of 1730z... here's a small sample from coastal DE near Lewes-Rehoboth. S NJ looks like mostly 3.4.5" so far, per whatever SACRUS had earlier. DE numbers attached. The 9" report (and 0.78") reports look suspect but there are several 6+" reports in that area. Credit the WUNDERMAP group for data gathering from PWS's.

Seaside Heights easterly wind at the mesonet site gust near 40 kt.

Many reports of 6 to as 8" in the the Rehoboth area of coastal DE and have seen reports up to 6.5" in s NJ. No winds higher than gale force (TS gusts and a few TS sustained). This per wundermap. Updated at 121P. See no lightning in all this warm process rain. Of greatest concern: STP's are wayyyyy to low in NJ and possibly not set to the tropical algorithm? Unsure but unless the wundermap is wrong, STP does not represent reality very well today.

fwiw... not sending any data for a couple of hrs. have some work here.