wdrag

Good morning all, This what I'm using for planning. The 06z GFS rescued what I think is messy snow-ice event coming... I add these graphics and leave it all to you for debate. Model variability continues. Nothing locked. Feb 1-2: UNCERTAINTY and no cancellation action yet, but you may want to develop a plan B. Suggest planning for delays PANJ northward Friday night-Saturday morning as at least some snow and ice is expected. Timing and amounts uncertain. This may end up being a Friday night-Saturday morning event, followed by another late Sunday. No strong consensus yet but think it best to plan. First higher probability risk is near sunrise Saturday. Maps of small amounts of ice potential attached for Saturday as well as example of new snow fall that covers most of our membership from NYS-MA I90 south to the MD border. I added sidebar notes to the attached graphics.

Looks messy... long duration periodic winter event that seems to begin late Friday and ends in our area Monday morning. Aapparently most of the snow acc for Li the second half of the storm. Ice continues showing up inland..albeit minor (under 0.15 FRAM). So on the se ridge asserting and sending his north, you'll know for sure if the EC and AI don't trend south by Tuesdays' cycles. VERY early but I'm looking for an initial WAA burst Friday night-Saturday morning, maybe a break and then resurgence Sat night -Sunday with the modeled too rapidly dissipated 5H low transiting PA/NJ. Long ways to go and I be wrong in my interpretation, but for now a mess and LI probably less than 3" on the back side. I kind of like the tamers 18z GFS/GEFS vs the heavier 00z-12z cycles. (more reasonable qpf).

Good morning .. ECAI is always variable til it locks (I dont think its locked yet) and so it's part of the thought process that I needed to account for in the thread presentation. WPC already has a significant 30%+ prob of snow ice interior PA high terrain on D7. Both EPS-GEFS had decent 1"+ 10-1 snowfall ratio NYC area for D7, while the CMCE is almost non-existent. Thinking that the pattern is favorable for an event, some of it snow-ice. Would love all snow NYC but at this D7 post, not the likely solution based on all the info that I was able to review. In the meantime, don't be surprised at 0.1 snowfall Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning NYC CP. Fingers crossed (mine anyway) that this is not a loser. I'm comfortable with this start. Failure is always an option but not likely in my opinion. Just how much of whatever precip type with qpf 0.5-1 inch range. It could be two periods embedded in this 00z/1-12z/3 time frame. What I wrote a small group this morning at 530A: Next weekend Feb 1-2: Monitor for delays and cancellations PANJ northward as at least some snow and ice is expected. Timing and amounts uncertain but this is looking significant. No action yet but maybe we'll know more tomorrow morning.

While most events are shaky on snowfall for LI due to thermal profiles, there should be a pool of subfreezing air covering the interior northeast during this event, available for making a messy winter storm, even down into NYC (NOT a KU). The remnants of this mornings CA 5H closed low will weaken as it heads eastward into the confluence zone over the mid and North Atlantic states this coming weekend. The cold boundary layer airmass that arrives Thursday the 30th after passage of an Alberta clipper off the Maine coast, should be available to interact with the Gulf moisture and lift generated moisture caused by the thickness overrunning ahead of the weakening upper low. Modeling is implying a secondary CFP Friday evening that will allow that BL cold in NYS-New England to be nearby. Precipitation type will be problematic due to the thermal profiles but the attached ensemble guidance suggests that this system is of trackable interest for our NYC subforum -both for travel into the interior where impact will be greater, and maybe witnessing some snow accumulation in NYC-though melting is anticipated on LI at times. Can our NYC 24-25 winter snowfall increase an inch or 2" next weekend (corrected my prior CP snowfall error). Ensembles should be self explanatory. I did add the EPS probability of >0.10 freezing rain Headline change below at 730AM Wed 1/29 for failed 7 day lead time on wintry accums NYC-LI. Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact. Events accelerated 18 hours and warmer-further north than modeling posted below in this thread indicated. Wrap up hat happened will post Monday Feb 3. P5 shows the NAEFS speed change. Self rated C-performance (see p 15 results against the ensembles posted here). Back end snow event entire subforum salvaged a terrible start. Max axis was significantly further north than ensembled. We had the Fri morning ice delays e PA/NJ/se NYS (24 hrs earlier than anticipated in this thread, but nothing else til the Sunday evening climatologically normal 1-3" snow event.

May begin a thread at 8A for 2/1-2 snow to rain LI and snow to ice interior suburbs...some accumulation all areas... for NYC probably just minor but so early in the analysis. More at 8A.

Nothing much for us in the snow - ice dept. I was too far south in my expectations yesterday. A few sprits of snow here and there through this Tue, minor less than 1/4" amounts. The Wednesday system looks mostly on or N of I84 with best chance 1-3" accumulation n of the Ma Pike. We do have wind chill factor tomorrow - Thursday. Feb looks opportunistic the first 10 days via some modeling, but no consensus on any of these being mostly snow events, not yet anyway. No new threads from me today. Have a good one.

try. Working Hands

I was too fast in Hospital ER 430A-930A (family flu) so the snow shower-squall event is reserved more for Tuesday morning. The Wed event right now looks too far north for much down here but I remain committed to monitoring the future of this event. n/c 2/1-2. No thread for me til tomorrow at the earliest, if then.

i84 corridor probably 2 orc3 wintry eventts before Feb3 with variable snowfall. Monday evening 1hr snow showers or a squall dusts some roads 1/4-1”. Sharp cold front with Great Lakes moisture yielding steep relatively moist lapse rates. Wednesday: some sort if snow acc entire corridor. The further north you go best chance 2-5”, probably CT portion but track important. If low goes south of LI it’s going to be nice. Too early for me to know. 2/1-2 at least some snow ice possibly change to rain but looks good for an event monitoring NtC for a Wednesday 1/29 thread but probably 10-30 hours too soon for me to be sure regarding a commitment

Will review at 5P for a possible Wed 29th thread.

Don, This is helpful. We can only hope to expand the sample size with larger snowfalls. BUT, all of us need to be aware that it might be too good for us the rest of the way in CP. Don's numbers suggest 5-10" more as the somewhat probable expectation, barring an unexpected significant snowfall in late January.

I hope for snow but a LaNina winter...bombing away Great Lakes (LES) and we had what I kind of thought was our most favorable situation in the winter... plenty of cold air. Saw CMCE but none of the modeling is showing consensus on a date and temps seems to be warming. I cross my fingers and hope for a big comeback in Feb-early March. It CAN happen. Just a little pessimistic since we've had a colder than normal DEC and much of JAN. I dont know what will happen but odds might not be in our favor? Don might have a lot more to say based on all his stats. Don- any comment these last 8 weeks of winter for CP?

I guess. what do you think? I just checked EC AI for Feb 1-2... something not making a lot of sense... warm thickness and warm 850 temps but freezing surface temps all the way down to LI Sound with 1/2" qpf. That would be interesting snow-ice-rain... a modeled off and on and off again system. Normally(within the sample range) around Feb 5-7 is a pretty good time for the Boston area to get a decent snowfall. I don't like how the PV is modeled to recenter broadly across Canada in early Feb. Suggests mild here. NAEFS 2M also suggest the same relaxing of the cold.

Looking ahead: I have no threads, at least not for a few days. Think we just had the worst week of winter... hopefully snowfall can make a comeback in FEB-March but a little concerned now that we might not see more than 5" the rest of the way at CP. Coastal temps are looking marginal first week of Feb when qpf events become active. This add on I thought interesting this morning .. 5AM temps over snowcover >2".

Thank you ALL very much for all YOUR reports. Posting NWS storm reports south of Toms River, and the CoCoRaHs, plus the KBID observation (ignore their Trace melted-no way trace and again another consideration when looking at METAR reports water equivalent below 30F. Added KJPX (East Hampton LI) It was close and we always knew from the outset headline it was fringe. If any more reports just add em on. Am basically done with this one. I did check the originating ensemble guidance. EPS was worst, CMCE middle but way too much and the GEFS had a total miss and didnt bother to post it. GEFS was best 24 hours in advance (much closer to T0 it recognized what would happen).

KMIV, KWWD, KACY reporting minor S- since ~730PM.

OKX radar showing Long Island lake effect light snow shower fragments translating east along the edge of the virga shield across Li. Take a look. I think the EC had this in some prior cycles for 00z/22.

3 reports of flurries coastal Ocean County NJ at 745PM... no big deal I know, but not for naught. Always was fringe.

Here depends where. se Tip LI to Cape May NJ will see brief snow sometime between 9 and midnight. Iso flurries around MD. Atlanta had a 3/4" in 1 hr ending around 430P. Close... not worth tracking for 99% of our subforum.

Yet again... suggest a flurry DCA-PHilly NY. Its roaring ne. Probably a near mss except coasts should get a short period of action this evening or as Dark Star implied..a whiff. Per mid morning HRRR clipping NJ coast to e Li for 2 hrs around 02z.

Regarding other threads for January... none at this time though am looking at measurable snow in much of the subforum sometime between 06z/27-18z/30 (next week). but too soon for me to thread whatever the significance. Looks somewhat interesting. AND, not to completely discard this Thursday-Friday for the coasts... not impossible to see patchy snow showers on the coasts sometime in there, but not looking quite as impressive (to me) as this marginal fringe snowfall potential ton ight along our coasts.

Tonight continues on the table. Attached the 08z/21 NWS probabilistic 1", 07z/21 BOM, 09z/21 SREF, 06z/21 GEFS (weakest, again most conservative), 00z/21 EPS, 00z/21 CMCE. Am hoping some folks on our subforum along along the coasts will be observing and reporting slight accumulations between 7PM and midnight (roughly), from a 1-4 hour period of snow showers. All models as I sampled vertically at Upton through the FSU MOE website show a chance of snow getting to the ground in that time frame. Lets see if the conservative BOM/GEFS win out with an offshore miss. A couple models show a chance for halfway decent dendritic growth (not just tiny flakes). Again and unknown on all but a wintry flavor.

Hi. Bluewave knows on EC. I let D8 determine planning for this thread and yes Canadian wasn’t good 48 hours out for LI. Not more I can say except well many know Canadian is a warmer model than GFS and EC

HANG IN THERE... EC AI AND NAVGEM STEADY for e tip LI. Probably will miss and presuming the bl wind stays offshore, not happening for snow but the door is open slightly to adjustments for tomorrow night. added at1246P. EC continues T-0.3" amounts along the NJ coast most of LI and now FAR se New England. Its edging N in GA/Carolinas.

I kind of agree... would you agree the CMCE was best guess a week out? Obviously being slightly too far west but having the right idea about w of I95.