weathermedic

The snow cover is definitely helping keep the temperatures a few degrees colder

Upton's morning AFD Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the 500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras. Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for any changes.

Good read from Upton's morning AFD: Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening. Most of the dynamic modeling has the storm being the nearest of misses, or a side swipe / brush for eastern sections east of the NYC metro. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. At this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses, or perhaps the region gets bisected with a sharp cut off in moisture / QPF. With an eastern track and arctic air in place beforehand precipitation would in the form of all snow. Most of the modeling on most of the more recent runs has had the main 500 mb vorticity maximum pass just south of Cape Hatteras would typically means a miss for our region with heavy snowfall. However the slightest misrepresentation of the upper levels by NWP would have massive consequences in terms of sensible weather, especially further east across the region. Strong winds remain a distinct possibility, especially further east. Stay tuned because changes in the forecast for the second half of the weekend remain in play.

9.5 inches here with about .5 of that as sleet

Looks like gravity waves on radar

Another 1.8 inches in the past hour for a total of 8.1 inches so far

Meanwhile at the southern end of this huge precipitation shield covering the country, tornado watches up for AL, GA and FL

Co-worker in Medford NJ reporting sleet now

Just measured 2 inches in the last hour. Total up to 6.3 inches now here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

I just measured 4.25 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

3 inches at my location in Sheepshead Bay

Also don't forget if cities/towns just use plain salt, it does not have the same melting power when temps get below 20 degrees. I know NYC Sanitation salt trucks have the ability to mix in liquid calcium chloride when they spread so that should help

NYC Sanitation just gave the order for all their trucks to drop their plows and commence plowing operations. Had one just come down my block. That layer of salt they spread last night did nothing as the road is still white after the plow went by.

Latest graphic from Upton

Bernie Rayno with a nice explanation on things https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2015106637212659787?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2015106637212659787|twgr^c7b51d61c8a3e5047944a1f086a006052f31bce0|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Furl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FAccuRayno%2Fstatus%2F2015106637212659787