bluewave

The most impressive late season heat we ever had was when we had our first mid 90s in October back in 2019. But we needed that brief flash drought pattern to pull it off. We are lucky the pattern wasn’t a month earlier since it probably would have been 100° heat if it was closer to Labor Day.

I am a bit surprised with all our recent endless summer patterns into early October we haven’t had any 100° heat after August 20th. It may be the tendency for these summer patterns to turn wet heading into the fall.

The GEFS weeklies are a little more bullish than the EPS weeklies for some more mid 90s potential from late August into early September. But the last time Newark saw a 100° reading after August 20th was in 1993. The only times we are able to see cooler temperatures these days is with heavy rains and strong blocking. We got both this time. This was one of the strongest -EPO blocks we have seen this time of year.

Debbie will effectively end up pulling the trough was has been over the Midwest this summer into the East going forward. Another case of summer heat getting interrupted by a tropical system. We have seen this many times in the past with 100° heat right before a tropical system and then less intense heat after.

It was nice having that profiler data available from the Bronx.

We’ll take any poleward help we can get since we just had the lowest -PDO June and July since 1950 at -3.16 and -2.97. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Big slowdown in 90° day counts forecast as we actually see a very comfortable stretch of temperatures coming up into mid-August. Continuing to look like we may have seen the last of the 100° heat this summer. The combination of onshore flow and wetter pattern prevented a repeat of the record type of heat we saw during the 2010 El Niño to La Niña transition.

5.00”+ from Bergen into the Bronx. New 24hr rainfall record for Howell Township, NJ at 6.79”. BERGEN COUNTY... BOGOTA 5.47 IN 1108 PM 08/06 AWS BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 5.38 IN 1110 PM 08/06 NYSM Observation Date 8/7/2024 6:00 AM Submitted 8/07/2024 5:56 AM Gauge Catch 6.79 in. Notes This is a record amount of rainfall in 24 hours in this area of Hopewell Township, New Jersey with more than 5 inches falling in less than 2 hours early last evening.

Some radar estimates over 5.00” around that area.

Looks pretty rough on the Henry Hudson.

Yeah, reports of flooded roadways around the area coming in.

Probably plenty of flooding in spots around Yonkers and the Bronx with radar estimates in excess of 3.00”.

The heaviest may have fallen right over the GSB.

3.00” radar estimates in the Gilgo and Oak Beach area.

Some roads in NJ already blocked due to flooding.

Very heavy downpours now on the Garden State Parkway.

Area fell into 3rd place behind 2012 and 2020. Loss rates have slowed just enough last week. Plus the next 7 days was when 2012 ran away with the lead. Record preconditioning that year with very strong May melt ponding and follow up strong summer dipole pattern. The great Arctic cyclone came during the next 7 days that year.

Impressive rates at ISP with 1.03” in only the last 15 minutes. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

Picked up a quick .41 here in 20 min with the heavy downpour.

This current August forecast for the DJF looks like a blend of the most recent La Niña forecasts from Aug 20,21, and 22.

Harrison, NJ is currently in the lead across the area with 35 days reaching 90° so far this year. That is currently the 9th highest seeasonal total on record. Newark is further back at only 30 days since the ASOS is very close to the bay and even a slight SSE flow affects temperatures there. So Newark is currently in 15th place. They will probably finish the season somewhere in the top 10. LGA is further back in 18th place with only 19 days. JFK only has 5 days which is in 17th place. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 50 30 2 2018 47 0 - 2002 47 8 4 2022 44 0 5 2005 41 9 6 2016 40 0 7 2020 39 0 - 2019 39 0 8 2021 38 0 9 2024 35 148 - 2012 35 21 10 2023 33 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 4 1988 43 0 5 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 6 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 7 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 8 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 9 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 10 2015 35 0 11 1961 34 0 12 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 13 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 14 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0 15 2024 30 148 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2022 30 0 - 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0 11 2019 26 0 - 1999 26 0 - 1993 26 0 - 1988 26 0 12 2021 25 0 - 1966 25 0 13 1952 24 0 14 2007 23 0 - 1995 23 0 - 1941 23 0 15 2006 22 0 - 1994 22 0 - 1980 22 0 - 1970 22 0 16 2013 21 0 17 2015 20 0 18 2024 19 148 - 2011 19 0 - 2008 19 0 - 1987 19 0 - 1957 19 0 - 1943 19 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 11 1987 11 0 - 1981 11 0 - 1980 11 0 - 1962 11 1 12 2021 10 0 - 1997 10 0 - 1974 10 0 13 2017 9 0 - 2013 9 0 - 2008 9 0 - 1989 9 0 - 1956 9 0 14 2023 8 0 - 2018 8 0 - 2001 8 0 - 1986 8 0 - 1975 8 0 - 1973 8 0 - 1972 8 0 - 1964 8 1 15 2019 7 0 - 2007 7 0 - 1994 7 0 - 1957 7 1 - 1948 7 198 16 2009 6 0 - 2000 6 0 - 1992 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1965 6 0 17 2024 5 148 - 1998 5 0 - 1985 5 0 - 1976 5 0 - 1954 5 1

Euro seasonal first guess for DJF is similar to the recent winter decadal pattern. Strong Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge couplet. So places like NYC are probably looking at the record 10th consecutive warmer winter since 15-16.

This was actually the 2nd highest monthly +PNA on record leading to the record heat over Western North America. Very impressive that 5 of the strongest monthly +PNA readings were July La Ninas. Top 10 monthly +PNA readings with La Niña Julys bolded +2.66….. MAY…1993 +2.60…..JUL….2024 +2.54…..JUL….2022 +2.47..…JAN…..1981 +2.38…MAR……1983 +2.24…JUL…….1998 +2.22…AUG……1977 +2.21….JUL……2007 +2.16…..JUL…..1988 +2.16…..JAN….2016