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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    While the graph starts in 1982, there were never SSTs approaching these levels prior to that year in our modern record.
  2. bluewave
    The Atlantic is back to all-time SST warmth after falling behind 2023 during the summer.
  3. bluewave
    Newark only needs .06 to move out of 1st place for driest September. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.09 5 2 1941 0.14 0 3 2005 0.45 0 4 1951 0.95 0 5 1972 1.03 0 6 1948 1.14 0 - 1939 1.14 0 7 1931 1.19 0 8 1953 1.25 0 9 1964 1.30 0 10 1967 1.35 0
  4. bluewave
    It was a record September nearly +500 meter Greenland block but it’s still linking up with the Southeast Ridge.
  5. bluewave
    All we can say is that September 2024 is playing out in a roughly similar way to 2022. The 500 mb anomaly centers are in the same general locations. Strong Aleutian Ridge and Greenland Block. Plus a big September hurricane in the Gulf after a quiet August just like 2022. But that’s not to say that the rest of the pattern will play out in a similar way going forward. We will have to wait and see how the pattern progresses since there can always be new variability introduced which wasn’t present in a previous year with a similar pattern over the same time interval.
  6. bluewave
    The one good thing about the Southeast Ridge correcting stronger today is that maybe the moisture from Helene will sneak further north into the weekend.
  7. bluewave
    Tomorrow will be one of the few days this month with SSW flow so low 80s for the usual warm spots in NJ.
  8. bluewave
    Really extreme ocean heat content in the Gulf out ahead of Helene.
  9. bluewave
    The GFS is flexing stronger with the Southeast Ridge so heaviest goes north.
  10. bluewave
    It’s interesting that this study came out in 2009 right before the next big step up in volatility over the last 10 to 15 years. We can also add the AO which overlaps with the NAO. It does seem like more of the volatility has been evident in the AO while the winter NAO seems to be becoming more positive. https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/study-links-swings-in-north-atlantic-oscillation-variability-to-climate-warming/ The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions. “When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior,” said Goodkin. “That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere.” The North Atlantic Oscillation is described by the NAO index, calculated as a weighted difference between the polar low and the subtropical high during the winter season. In a positive phase, both the low-pressure zone over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores are intensified, resulting in changes in the strength, incidence, and pathway of winter storms crossing the Atlantic. In a negative phase, a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway. The NAO index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting more than a decade. An unusually long period of positive phase between 1970-2000 led to the suggestion that global warming was affecting the behavior of the NAO. “Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales,” said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. “It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future.” “As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”
  11. bluewave
    The most interesting part of this is the volatility of both the NAO and AO indices. We saw a record low Iceland 500mb height anomaly in August. Now this month one of the highest September daily 500mb height anomalies over Greenland near +500meters. This has been a theme in recent years with some of the greatest positive and negative swings over a relatively short period we have ever seen.
  12. bluewave
    The landfall forecast was better than the ACE and total storms which were too high. It’s interesting that the Euro correctly forecast the more stable air over the tropics but missed on the ACE and number of storms. The summer temperature forecast did very well.
  13. bluewave
    All 22 hurricanes of any intensity passing through that area moving NNE continued recurving to the NE and none bent back to the NW.
  14. bluewave
    All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in. All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene Rare bend back to NW after landfall
  15. bluewave
    Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be much help in 4 months if the Greenland Block continues linking up with the Southeast Ridge. Notice how the Southeast Ridge is correcting stronger for Thursday. So the models have pushed the heaviest rains north of I-78 from previous runs. We also get into SW flow which has been a rarity this month. So the usual warm spots in NJ could make it over 80° in what was originally forecast to be a cooler day. New run Old run
  16. bluewave
    Should decrease more especially if we can sneak in some 80s later this week.
  17. bluewave
    It was near the time of some of the lowest -PDO readings of the 1950s into 1970s -PDO years. It produced the strongest winter -WPO Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern of that era. We just experienced the strongest -PDO summer since 1950. But the pattern progression was a little different back than compared to this year. That summer came after a La Niña winter and this summer followed a borderline super El Niño. So it’s very difficult to pick a very old winter analog and use it as a current analog for any coming winter. It’s just an example from the past what can happen when a very strong -PDO pattern aligns with a La Niña and the Aleutian Ridge becomes very amplified. We have had numerous examples of very strong Aleutian Ridge patterns during La Ninas since 16-17. But that one produced the warmest January on record in Atlanta of +13. We recently had a very amplified Aleutian Ridge pattern in December 2021 produce a +13 in DFW. But a +13 against the much warmer 91-20 normals will be a higher actual temperature than 1911-1940 averages for the location where the Southeast Ridge is most amplified.
  18. bluewave
    Yeah, the outlier GFS joined the less wet Euro, CMC, UKMET consensus with no connection between the tropical system and the cold front Wed into Thurs. New GFS run no moisture connection like other models
  19. bluewave
    The Euro, CMC, and UKMET don’t have much rain. So the GFS is the only regular global trying to show a PRE-like feature Wed into Thurs. It’s still an outlier compared to the other globals. GFS only global that tries to connect front to Helene also much deeper GEM more separate and weaker system like Euro and UKMET
  20. bluewave
    The record SST warmth is much more expansive than just 150E. It encompasses the entire area from the Maritime Continent to around the Dateline. The +30C warm pool area is much larger than anything we have ever seen before. The previous record holder was the summer of 2016. But you can see this summer was a leap above the levels heading into the 16-17 La Niña winter.
  21. bluewave
    Full suppression mode with one the lowest daily -NAO readings for the month of September coming up with the near record +49 dm Greenland Block.
  22. bluewave
    Places like Newark are on track for one of their driest Septembers on record. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.08 9 2 1941 0.14 0 3 2005 0.45 0 4 1951 0.95 0 5 1972 1.03 0 6 1948 1.14 0 - 1939 1.14 0 7 1931 1.19 0 8 1953 1.25 0 9 1964 1.30 0 10 1967 1.35 0
  23. bluewave
    Who would have thought it would be so difficult to get another tropical system up here after Debby.
  24. bluewave
    Plenty of rain out on Cape Cod with over 6.00” as the low cutoff under the record block.
  25. bluewave
    This may be the first time I can remember seeing surface high pressure build west from Newfoundland to north of the Great Lakes. The highs usually start out north of the Great Lakes and move off the coast a few days later. So this really isn’t a typical looking set up. Just goes to show how extreme these blocking patterns are getting. It’s no wonder there are a number of models showing a dry slot near the area with heavier totals east and west.
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