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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    The lawns and all the grass around Tweed look really great.
  2. bluewave
    We have had such a huge surplus of rainfall that everything is just as green and lush looking here as it was before the recent drier period.
  3. bluewave
    Parts of Long Island and CT have had 15-20” over the same period. Data for July 13, 2024 through September 12, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY ST. JAMES COOP 19.35 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 19.20 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 19.11 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 17.96 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 16.75 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.55 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 16.45 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 15.95 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 15.92 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 15.90 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 15.86 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 15.64
  4. bluewave
    The real heat was always forecast to go north relative to the averages. New run Old run
  5. bluewave
    The Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been the most dominant feature of the last 9 winters. This is why the Northeast has seen an historic 9 warmer winters in a row. We have never seen a run like this going back to 1950 regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. So it may be time for a new custom index.
  6. bluewave
    It been a -3 start to September but it looks like we will eventually turn positive as the rest of the month looks well above average.
  7. bluewave
    That ridge is the main reason we have had 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row.
  8. bluewave
    Won’t be much rain up here if two near record 590+ dm ridges verify. You can see the shift in just one Euro run. Hopefully, this isn’t a preview of next winter. New run Old run
  9. bluewave
    Yeah, I am south of Route 1 not far from the shore. We had dinner the other night up on Route 80 and it was a few degrees cooler. Thanks, it was always a challenge getting much radiational cooling south of Merrick Road in Suffolk. Same went for living on a barrier island back in Long Beach. I radiate better here being near a nice woodland area. Saw two deer, a wild turkey, and a fleeting glimpse of a coyote running in the distance.
  10. bluewave
    One of the things I really enjoy about living in CT is how fast it cools off once the sun goes down with the great radiational cooling. I didn’t have this back on the Long Island Shore. Already had 8 nights in the 50s this month so far.
  11. bluewave
    All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16.
  12. bluewave
    These south based blocks linking up with the Southeast Ridge didn’t really become more common until the 2020s. We seldom had issues with these during the epic snowfall run from 09-10 to 17-18. Teleconnections don’t operate in a vacuum as they are influenced by our warming climate as these competing marine heatwaves expand their coverage. As I have shown these recent -PDO -PNA -AOs -NAOs are much warmer and less snowy than their counterparts from the 1950s into the 1970s.
  13. bluewave
    It will probably be suppressed for the next 7 days as this ridge over the Northeast is one of the strongest on record. Plenty of days of easterly onshore flow and building tides and waves as we approach the full moon on the 20th. Hopefully, we get something at the tail end as the low will probably eventually lift north as the high weakens by later next week.
  14. bluewave
    Great late summer weekend coming up with upper 80s to around 90 for the unusual spots in NJ away from the sea breeze. This will be a near record ridge for mid-September around 591 dm. So it’s why the long range models are suggesting that a tropical system or subtropical low will try to cutoff underneath.
  15. bluewave
    February 16-17th was a strong -EPO+PNA like I mentioned as being favorable for snow in our area. It wasn’t a hostile -PNA pattern. But the issue is that these transient favorable patterns that I mentioned can be too brief for more than a few highly localized decent snows like that narrow corridor in NJ got. The favorability window was just too brief for a great area wide event. That’s why in our local thread last winter I was talking about that brief window of opportunity as the forcing finally shifted well east of the Dateline closer to an MJO 8 configuration. We literally had one week to work with in mid-February and it was in the 60s before and after this period. Very hard for widespread parts of the area to reach normal snowfall with such a short period to work with. Many more places did better in the Jan 2022 +PNA -EPO since it was a month long pattern. The big issue is that these Pacific patterns turned more hostile in 18-19. So the only above average snowfall season in NYC in the last 6 years was 20-21. We had that great +PNA -AO-NAO pattern. Even though the snowfall outcome was the best of the decade so far, it was still a warmer than average winter in our area. This is how we have put together a record breaking 9 warmer than normal winters in a row.
  16. bluewave
    Yeah, I am speaking mainly about NYC Metro coastal with my snow references. The only decent snows over the past 6 seasons occurred with either +PNA-AO or +PNA-EPO extended periods. -PNA-AO just won’t cut it anymore in this much warmer climate which is more prone to Southeast Ridge amplifications. The beauty of the 20-21 winter is that Dec 1 to January 20th was solid +PNA -AO. So we had the mid-December snowstorm to start out December the right way for snow lovers. Even when the PNA went negative in late January, the trough was still locked into the East from remaining there through January 20th. The great snowstorm at the end of the month had the Southeast Ridge suppression due to the earlier +PNA-AO effect lingering. Then our last decent winter month in January 22 had that MJO 8 +PNA -EPO great NE Pacific blocking pattern. The dominant -PNA in December 2022 was just too overpowering for coastal NYC Metro even with one of the strongest -AOs for December. March was more of the same but the interior Northeast sections did very well. So you really want to be far enough interior and even higher elevation to be able to cash in when the -PNA is very overpowering.
  17. bluewave
    Even the dry patterns have been relatively brief and shallow only affecting soil moisture and not water supply. We shifted to a much wetter pattern in 2003. NYC hasn’t had a drought emergency since 2002. That one was less severe than the 1960s drought. Luckily we haven’t see any droughts that extreme as the climate has warmed so much since then. If we had 60s or early 00s drought conditions in this much warmer climate, then usual warm spots would have already recorded highs over 110°. But instead we get higher dew points, heat indexes, and more onshore flow.
  18. bluewave
    Maybe our next chance of more widespread rain in about 10 days. Models all over the place with the low positions. They all agree on the big high sitting over the Northeast. But vary on the subtropical or tropical development underneath. These are the highest tides of the month with the full moon so days of onshore flow could lead to potential beach erosion and coastal flooding if the gradient gets tight enough.
  19. bluewave
    The more amplified Aleutian Ridge and much warmer Atlantic has made the -PNA -NAO much less favorable than it was back in the older -PDO era. These days any deep trough near the West Coast pumps the Southeast Ridge. In the old days the much cooler SSTs prevented Southeast Ridge formation in most circumstances when the AO and NAO were negative.
  20. bluewave
    https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusually-persistent-warmth What might this mean going forward? Unfortunately we still lack a good explanation for what drove the exceptional warmth the world saw in 2023 and 2024. We have a lot of potential mediocre explanations (e.g. low sulfur marine fuel regulations, the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022, an uptick in the 11 year solar cycle, El Nino behaving weirdly, etc.). But these have increasingly been modeled, and it is hard to explain the magnitude of the global temperature anomaly the world has experienced even adding all of these estimates together.
  21. bluewave
  22. bluewave
    Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021. Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 - 1968 75.0 0
  23. bluewave
    Could be some coastal flooding and beach erosion around the 20th somewhere on the East Coast if the Euro control is correct about a possible tropical development under a big high during the full moon.
  24. bluewave
    Yeah, great weather coming up for outdoor activities. We are on track for the driest first half of September in the 2020s so far. We’ll see if the ridge over the Northeast can weaken enough to allow more tropical or other moisture later in the month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.September 1-15th rainfall 2024-09-15 0.08..so far 2023-09-15 2.32 2022-09-15 1.87 2021-09-15 8.79 2020-09-15 2.51
  25. bluewave
    Yeah, very strong cold pool near Japan was something we haven’t seen in years with the ongoing record marine heatwave there. The only two summers I could find with a similar 500 mb pattern to this summer were 2021 and 2022. You can see how 2013 was reversed in the North Pacific. Very strong ridge over the Bering and Alaska instead of the trough this summer.
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